ImaginativePRO Blog

GERALD CELENTE PREDICTED THE 2008 FINANCIAL COLLAPSE, NOW PREDICTS REVOLUTION, VIOLENCE, AND A NEW 3RD PARTY IN 2012

The notorious character "Humongous" from the "The Road Warrior" film.  Visions of the future economy.  All he wanted was some gas for his chopper, so he took matters into his own hands.

The man who predicted the 1987 stock market crash and the fall of the Soviet Union is now forecasting a  revolution in America, food riots and tax rebellions - all within four years, while cautioning that putting food on the table will be a more pressing concern than buying Christmas gifts by 2012.

Gerald Celente, the CEO of Trends Research Institute, is publisher of the Trends Journal which forecasts and analyzes business, socioeconomic, political, and other trends, and is renowned for his accuracy in predicting future world and economic events which can send a chill down your spine. 

Celente says that by 2012 America will become an underdeveloped nation, that there will be a revolution marked by food riots, squatter rebellions, tax revolts and job marches, and that holidays will be more about obtaining food, not gifts.

Celente, adding that the situation would be "worse than the greatdepression" said.

"We're going to see the end of the retail Christmas... we're going to see a fundamental shift take place... putting food on the table is going to be more important than putting gifts under the Christmas tree." 

Celente also said.  

"America's going to go through a transition the likes of which no one is prepared for."  

He notes that people's refusal to acknowledge that America was even in a recession highlights how big a problem denial is in being ready for the true scale of the crisis.

 

Celente, who successfully predicted the 1997 Asian Currency Crisis, the sub-prime mortgage collapse and the massive devaluation of the U.S. dollar, told UPI in November last year that the following year would be known as "The Panic of 2008," adding that "giants (would) tumble to their deaths," which is exactly what we have witnessed with the collapse of Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns and others.

He also said that the dollar would eventually be devalued by as much as 90 per cent. The consequence of what we have seen unfold this year would lead to a lowering in living standards, Celente predicted a year ago, which is also being borne out by plummeting retail sales figures.

The prospect of revolution was a concept echoed by a British Ministry of Defence report last year, which predicted that within 30 years, the growing gap between the super-rich and the middle class, along with an  urban underclass threatening social order would mean, 

"The world's middle classes might unite, using access to knowledge, resources and skills to shape transnational processes in their own class interest. The middle classes could become a revolutionary class."

In a separate recent interview, Celente went further on the subject of revolution in America.  He said. 

"There will be a revolution in this country.  It ' s not going to come yet, but it's going to come down the line and we 're going to see a third party and this was the catalyst for i t:  the takeover of Washington, D.C., in broad daylight by Wall Street in this bloodless coup. And it will happen as conditions continue to worsen."

He goes on to give us a horrid look into the future of America.  

"The first thing to do is organise with tax revolts. That's going to be the big one because people can't afford to pay more school tax, property tax, any kind of tax. You're going to start seeing those kinds of protests start to develop."

"It's going to be very bleak. Very sad. And there is going to be a lot of homeless, the likes of which we have never seen before.  Tent cities are already sprouting up around the country and we're going to see many more."

"We're going to start seeing huge areas of vacant real estate and squatters living in them as well. It's going to be a picture the likes of which Americans are not going to be used to." 

"It's going to come as a shock and with it, there's going to be a lot of crime.  And the crime is going to be a lot worse than it was before because in the last 1929 Depression, people's minds weren't wrecked on all these modern drugs,  over-the-counter drugs, or crystal meth or whatever it might be."

"So, you have a huge underclass of very desperate people with their minds chemically blown beyond anybody's comprehension."

The George Washington blog has compiled a list of quotes attesting to Celente's accuracy as a trend forecaster.

• CNN Headline News:  "When CNN wants to know about the Top Trends, we ask Gerald Celente."
• USA Today:  "Gerald Celente has a knack for getting the zeitgeist right."
• CNBC:  "There's not a better trend forecaster than Gerald Celente. The man  knows what he's talking about."
• The Wall Street Journal:  "Those who take their predictions seriously ...consider. Gerald Celente and the Trends Research Institute."
• The Atlantic Journal-Constitution:  "Gerald Celente is always ahead of the curve on trends and uncannily on the mark ... he's one of the most accurate forecasters around."
• The New York Times:   "Mr. Celente tracks the world's social, economic and business trends for corporate clients." 
• 48 Hours, CBS News:  "Mr. Celente is a very intelligent guy. We are able to learn about trends from an authority." 
• The Detroit News:  "Gerald Celente has a solid track record. He has predicted everything from the 1987 stock market crash and the demise of the Soviet Union to green marketing and corporate downsizing." 
• Chicago Tribune:  "Gerald Celente forecast the 1987 stock market crash, 'green marketing,' and the boom in gourmet coffees." 
• The Los Angeles Times:  "The Trends Research Institute is the Standard and Poor’s of Popular Culture." 
• New York Post:  "If Nostradamus were alive today, he'd have a hard time keeping up with Gerald Celente." 

So there you have it - hardly a nut job conspiracy theorist blowhard now is he? The price of not heeding his warnings will be far greater than the cost of preparing for the future now.

Storable food and gold are two good places to make a start.

COMMENTARY:   Gerald Celente reminds me of a fast talking Atlantic City bookie, laying odds on the Super Bowl, than a professional trends expert and visionary, but you cannot deny the accuracy of many of his predictions since he started in 1980.   

  

You don't have to be a noted economist to make these predictions.  The evidence of a U.S. financial collapse are all around us.  I have written extensively on different aspects of the U.S. and world economies, including:  

• The Real Estate Shadow Inventory. 
• Potential for a Second Real Estate Bubble and continuing real estate turmoil through at least 2015. 
• The Housing Armegeddon in 2011. 
• The Commercial Real Estate Bubble. 
• U.S. Poverty Levels. 
• The Financial Meltdown of September 8, 2008. 
• The Trade Balance Rankings (U.S. ranks dead last). 
• The potential for a Student Loan Bubble. 
• Why high unemployment due to the Great Recession has forced millions of college graduates to live with mom and dad again.
• A prediction by the head of the International Monetary Fund or IMF of a global depression due to the debt problems in the EU and U.S.

In a blog post dated July 6, 2011, titled "The Root Causes Behind Today's High Unemployment Situation, And Why This May Not Change Anytime Soon," I showed in great detail why unemployment will continue to remain high.  This is a must read for any pessimists who believe we are out of the woods.   

The symptoms are everywhere around you.  In February 2011,  I wrote about the impending Peak-Oil Crisis, a catastrophe we will all face because the demand for oil will exceed production (peak-oil). If you have noticed a rapid rise in the price of gas, that's what I am talking about. 

The Arab Spring Revolutions which erupted in North Africa and Middle East saw the overthrow of long standing dictators in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia, a bloddy revolution in Syria which continues to this day, and unrest and demonstrations in Jordan.  All of these events have created further instability in the oil rich regions of the Middle East and North Africa.

Adding fuel to the fire is the refusal of Iran to end its illegal nuclear weapons program in defiance of the U.N. and AEIA inspectors and boycott resolutions, and threats to destroy Israel and further threats to the West that it could close the Straits of Hormuz, adds further tensions and instability to the free flow of oil from the Middle East to the rest of the world.

This is not just a U.S. problem, but it is global in scale.  We all know about the financial collapse of several European countries, namely Greece, Spain, Portugal and now Italy, but major developed nations like Japan are on the brink of financial collapse.   Standard & Poors recently reduced the credit ratings of France, Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy.  This will make it doubly difficult for these countries to raise funds and pay their longterm sovereign debt when it comes due.

In a blog post dated January 7, 2012, I told you about passage and signing by President Obama, of the National Defense Authorization Act or NDAA (H.R. bill 1540), which effectively gives the President the power to use our military in purely civilian matters.  Though the wording in the NDAA is itself torturous -- and there is a provision for a waiver from the Defense Secretary regarding mandatory military detentions -- the elasticity of words like "associated forces" and "supported" have left some civil libertarians worried that the U.S. military could be deployed domestically against people opposing future American wars against alleged "terrorists" or "terrorist states."    In effect, this new NDAA law could lead to a police state, in which you could be detained as a "person of interest" or labeled as a "traitor" simply for demonstrating against future wars.  You could be held for an indefinite period of time, denied rights of habeaus corpus and you would disappear into some detention camp never to be seen again.  Does the U.S. government believe that civil law and order will collapse during a revolution?  Why would the politicians pass such a devisive law and destroy your civil and legal rights under the U.S. Constitution unless they are planning for something?

Finally,  in a blog post dated January 9, 2012 (reposted), I told you about the booming demand for underground "Apocalypse" bunkers by the rich and powerful.  They are the so-called 1 percenters with the financial means to protect themselves in the event of a natural catastrophe, or maybe a revolution, perhaps?  These wealthy individuals are well connected and are the largest doners and supporters to both major political parties.  Why would they be willing to pay many thousands of dollars unless they knew something truly bad was about to happen?   While the 99 percenters experience an all-out revolution, these rich and powerful individuals will live in absolute luxury and comfort in plush deep underground bunkers protected from the chaos above ground.      

It does not surprise me then why Mr. Celente predicts a "violent revolution" and that "food will become more important than Christmas".   There is a lot of anger out there.  The roots for the emergence of a third party are already here.   The Tea Party could emerge as that Third Party.   The Tea Partyreflects a lot of that anger, although I don't agree with much of their radical politics, including their racism reflected in their personal hate for President Obama.   The Occupy Wall Street movement has expanded across the country.  Major demonstrations are planned in 2012 in many major cities.  

Courtesy of an article dated January 30, 2011 appearing in Before It's News

 

FUKUSHIMA EARTHQUAKE MOVED SEAFLOOR HALF A FOOTBALL FIELD

The March 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake that decimated Japan and its Fukushima nuclear reactors with a monster tsunami altered the seafloor off the country’s eastern coast much more than scientists had thought. Analysis released today in the journal Science indicates the ocean bed moved as much as 50 meters laterally and 16 meters vertically. The magnitude 9.0 quake occurred close to the nearby Japan Trench that runs north to south in the Pacific Ocean (dark blue line on the map below).

Click Image To Enlarge

The trench exists because the oceanic Pacific Plate (dark blue on map below) is moving westward, hitting and bending down under the continental Okhotsk Plate (light blue) from which Japan rises (green, brown). This “subduction” action creates tension within the tectonic plates, which is occasionally released in the form of earthquakes.

Click Image To Enlarge

Although measurements from satellites and seismic ground sensors had indicated the Okhotsk Plate moved after the 9.0 temblor on March 11, the extent of the movement was not clear. Researchers at the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology compared new seafloor maps made of the region this year with maps made in 1999 and were surprised by the extent of motion. For example, data along one transect (yellow marker, below) near the quake’s epicenter (black “x” on the map) indicated that the Okhotsk plate moved 50 meters east-southeast toward the trench.

Click Image To Enlarge

Comparison of depth data showed that the earthquake itself lifted the Okhotsk plate 10 meters where the plate dives deep toward the trench (yellow to purple color, at center, below). The plate’s lateral shift also caused it to tip up another four to six meters there. “We think that the additional uplift contributed to the generation of the pulsating pattern of tsunami waves,” Toshiya Fujiwara, one of the lead researchers, wrote in an email.

Click Image To Enlarge

So if the Okhotsk plate shifted 50 meters at the trench, what happened at Japan’s eastern shore? According to Fujiwara, data from various Japanese agencies and universities shows that the seafloor at the Tohoku shore moved 5 meters seaward. Offshore, the plate shifted from 15 to 31 meters in the same east-southeast direction, and close to the trench it moved 50 meters. The gradually increasing displacement suggests that the plate was actually stretched from the shore toward the trench, changing local stress patterns along the way. The many large aftershocks that occurred (red circles, below; yellow is the quake epicenter) are evidence of the stretching, Fujiwara noted.

Click Image To Enlarge

Map credits (top to bottom): Captain Blood and Wikimedia Atlas of the World (Japan and Asia); NOAA (plates); Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (trench map and horizontal displacement graphic); ZENRIN and Google Maps (aftershocks).

 

 

COMMENTARY:   By comparison to the Great San Francisco Earthquake of 1906, the San Andreas fault moved between 5 to 8.5 meters along the length of fault 400+ mile length.   The Fukujima earthquake resulted in movements of 5 meters onshore and 15 to 31 meters offshore.  I think it's safe to say that both earthquakes were pretty similar in their strength. Even though the magnitude of the 1906 earthquake was large (Magnitude 7.8), it generated a tsunami wave only approximately 10 cm in height. 

The Tohoku-ito earthquake had a magnitude of 9.0.  The earthquake triggered powerful tsunami waves that reached heights of up to 40.5 metres (133 ft) in Miyako in Tōhoku's Iwate Prefecture, and which, in the Sendai area, travelled up to 10 km (6 mi) inland. The earthquake moved Honshu 2.4 m (8 ft) east and shifted the Earth on its axis by estimates of between 10 cm (4 in) and 25 cm (10 in).

Click Image To Enlarge

Courtesy of an article dated December 1, 2011 appearing in Scientific American

DUTCH RESEARCHER CREATES A SUPER-DEADLY INFLUENZA VIRUS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO KILL HALF OF EARTH'S POPULATION

A Dutch researcher has created a virus with the potential to kill half of the planet’s population. Now, researchers and experts in bioterrorism debate whether it is a good idea to publish the virus creation ”recipe”. However, several voices argue that such research should have not happened in the first place.

The virus is a strain of avian influenza H5N1 genetically modified to be extremely contagious. It was created by researcher Ron Fouchier of the Erasmus Medical Center Rotterdam, Netherlands. The work was first presented at a conference dedicated to influenza, that took place in September in Malta.

Avian influenza emerged in Asia about 10 years ago. Since then there were fewer than 600 infection cases reported in humans. On the other hand, Fouchier’s genetically modified strain is extremely contagious and dangerous, killing about 50% of infected patients. The former strain did not represent a global threat, as transmission from human to human is rare. Or, at least, it was before Fouchier genetically modified it.

Fouchier and his team used a pair of ferrets for testing because they react in similar ways as humans, when exposed to the flu virus. Researchers transmitted the deadly virus from one ferret to another, in order to make the virus more adaptable to a new host. After 10 generations, the virus has mutated allowing it to spread through air. The result was that ferrets could get sick just being near another infected animal.

A genetic study showed that new virus strain presented five mutations, and all could be also observed in nature - but only separately, not all five combined. Fouchier’s strain is as contagious as seasonal human influenza, which kills tens of thousands of people, just that, much more lethal.

 

Paul Keim, a specialist in microbial genetics who worked for many years with the anthrax bacillus commented.

“I can not think of a pathogenic organism to be more dangerous than this one.  I think the anthrax is not at all scary, when compared with this virus.”

Keim is the coordinator of the U.S. National Committee dedicated to biosecurity issues and now he has to make a decision. If Fouchier wants to publish his study detailing how the virus was created, Keim’s and his committee must approve.

Many scientists are concerned about possible negative consequences that could precede the publication of this research. There are many fears regarding bioterrorists that might find useful tips or a whole ’recipe’ to plan biological attacks. Demands are beeing made for the establishment of an international institution to oversee such dangerous research projects.

Dr. Thomas Inglesby, a bioterrorism expert says. 

“It’s just a bad idea for scientists to turn a lethal virus into a lethal and highly contagious virus. And it’s a second bad idea for them to publish how they did it so others can copy it.”

On the other hand, if the study becomes available for the scientific community, it could allow researchers to ”be prepared” for a potential H5N1 pandemic. Since Fouchier’s study suggests that the risk for this to occur is greater than previously thought. Some researchers believe that banning the paper will leave mankind helpless if the virus naturally mutates and becomes contagious.

COMMENTARY:    When news of the new super-deadly influenza virus was delivered in July 2011, it was chilling.  It meant that Dr. Fouchier’s research group had taken one of the most dangerous flu viruses ever known and made it even more dangerous — by tweaking it genetically to make it more contagious.

What shocked the researchers was how easy it had been, Dr. Fouchier said. Just a few mutations was all it took to make the virus go airborne.

 

The discovery has led advisers to the United States government, which paid for the research, to urge that the details be kept secret and not published in scientific journals to prevent the work from being replicated by terrorists, hostile governments or rogue scientists.

The experiment in Rotterdam transformed the virus into the supergerm of virologists’ nightmares, enabling it to spread from one animal to another through the air. The work was done in ferrets, which catch flu the same way people do and are considered the best model for studying it.

Richard H. Ebright, a chemistry professor and bioweapons expert at Rutgers University who has long opposed such research said.

“This research should not have been done.” 

He warned that germs that could be used as bioweapons had already been unintentionally released hundreds of times from labs in the United States and predicted that the same thing would happen with the new virus.

He said. 

“It will inevitably escape, and within a decade.”

Though he added that security measures like restricting possession of the virus to fewer scientists and fewer laboratories would lower the chances of that happening so soon.

This reminds me too much of the Hollywood film "Contagion."

This mutated H5N1 avian influenza virus needs to be contained and controlled by as few medical research facilities and laboratories as possible.  If this strain of h5n1 avain influenza virus gets loos in the wild, we will have a catastrophy of incredible dimensions.  God help us if a terrorist organization should get their hands on this virus.  The fact that it is airborne means that it can be transmitted through all living things and we will never be able to get it under control. This truly scary.

Courtesy of an article dated November 28, 2011 appearing in Doctor Tipster

ASTEROID 2005 YU55 MISSED EARTH, BUT WHAT WOULD HAVE HAPPENED IF IT HIT US, PURDUE UNIVERSITY SCIENTISTS HAVE THE ANSWERS

Asteroid 2005 YU55 is the size of an aircraft carrier and flew past Earth the morning of November 8, 2011.  NASA scientists and astronomers throughout the world said there was no danger of asteroid 2005 YU%% hitting the planet, but a Purdue University asteroid impact expert says that if a similar-sized object actually hit the Earth, it would result in a 4,000-megaton blast, a magnitude 7.0 earthquake and, should if it struck in the deep ocean, would cause a 70-foot-high tsunami wave 60 miles from the splashdown site.

NASA scientists reported this morning that asteroid 2005 YU55 passed between the orbits of the Earth and the Moon and came within 201,000 miles of Earth on its closest approach.

Jay Melosh, an expert in impact cratering and a distinguished professor of earth and atmospheric sciences, physics, and aerospace engineering at Purdue University, said the asteroid's orbit and trajectory meant there was zero chance of an impact.  Melosh said.

“What is unique about this asteroid flyby is that we were aware of it well in advance.  Before about 1980 we wouldn’t know about an asteroid of this size until it was already making a close pass, but now it is unlikely that such an asteroid will approach the Earth without our knowledge.”  

NASA’s Near Earth Object Program, or NEO, celebrated a milestone earlier this year by announcing that current search programs have discovered more than 90 percent of near-Earth objects more than six-tenths of a mile in diameter.  A larger number of smaller objects have yet to be found, however.  At the end of August 2011, NEO had discovered over 8,000 near-Earth objects.  Over 450 of known near-Earth asteroids discovered to date are 1 kilometer in size or greater.

Click Image To Enlarge

Click Image To Enlarge

Click Image To Enlarge 

Spacewatch, a program created to discover and track all large asteroids crossing the Earth’s orbit, discovered YU55 in 2005.  This close approach had been expected since then, he said.

Melosh used the asteroid impact effects calculator he developed to estimate what would happen if the asteroid, which is a quarter mile in diameter, hit the Earth. The calculator, "Impact: Earth!" allows anyone to calculate potential comet or asteroid damage. 

Users first enter a few parameters, such as:

• Diameter of the approaching object. 
• Density of the object. 
• Velocity of the object. 
• Angle of entry.
• Impact point on Earth. 

The site then estimates the consequences of its impact, including the atmospheric blast wave, ground shaking, size of tsunami generated, fireball expansion, distribution of debris and size of the crater produced. The calculator is available at http://www.purdue.edu/impactearth

Click Image To Enlarge

Click Image To Enlarge

For example, YU55 would strike with a velocity of 11 miles per second. Although it would begin to disintegrate as it passed through the atmosphere, the fragments would strike in a compact cluster that would blast out a crater 4 miles in diameter and 1,700 feet deep, Melosh said. Sixty miles away from the impact site the heat from the fireball would cause extensive first-degree skin burns, the seismic shaking would knock down chimneys and the blast wave would shatter glass windows.  

If YU55 were to strike a large city like Chicago, it would obliterate the entire city and leave few survivors.  Fortunately, the chance of a large impact targeted on a city is very small, he said.

According to NASA, the last time an asteroid this size came close to Earth was in 1976, and the next known approach of such a large asteroid will be in 2028.

Meteor Crater, located near Winslow, Arizona, is the result of a collision between an asteroid traveling at 26,000 miles per hour and planet Earth approximately 50,000 years ago.  Meteor Crater is nearly one mile across, 2.4 miles in circumference and more than 550 feet deep.  To give you a perspective, if asteroid 2005 Yu55 had hit Earth, it would've caused a crater 4 miles wide and 1,700 feet deep.  (Click Image To Enlarge)

Collisions of asteroids with Earth are quite common and occur about every 100,000 years on average.  The following worldwide map shows the location of impact caters caused by asteroids colliding with Earth. There are probably hundreds more craters hidden in our vast oceans. As you can see, the United States has been hit quite frequently over time. 

Click Image to Enlarge

The most recent impact of this size is not known, but there are about 20 similar craters known in the geologic record, including the Wetumka crater in Alabama and the Rock Elm crater in Wisconsin.  Of the known large craters, the most recent are the six-mile-wide Bosumtwi crater in Ghana, which is about 1 million years old, and the nine-mile-diameter Zhamanshin crater in Kazakhstan, which is about 900,000 years old, Melosh said.

He said.  

"Impacts from asteroids of this size are very rare.  They occur about once every 100,000 years, so the chances of an actual collision with an asteroid like YU55 is about 1 percent in the next thousand years. Apophis, a similar-sized asteroid about one-third of a mile in diameter is the biggest threat in our near future. It has a tiny chance of striking the Earth in 2036."

Melosh is a co-author of a 2010 NRC report “Defending Planet Earth” that explores the feasibility of detecting all Earth-crossing asteroids down to a diameter of 140 meters, or about one-tenth of a mile, and of ways to mitigate their hazard.

COMMENTARY:  In a previous blog post dated November 8, 2011, I mentioned to you that asteroid 2005 YU55 passed us at a distance of 201,000 miles from Earth, but the potential danger is still not over, 2005 YU55 will return for a second near-Earth approach in 2028.  Some astronomers believe that the asteroid's second pass will take it beneath the orbit of our space satellites, and could even skim off of Earth's upper atmosphere creating friction and displaying one incredible tail of flame and sparks.  There is also a possibility that asteroid 2005 YU55 could collide with Earth, but we won't know for sure until NASA scientists have analyzed the most recent data and recalculated its new orbit and orbital track when it returns in 2028.  

On Friday, April 13, 2036, asteroid 2005 YU55 will make a third near-Earth visit.  That's the date that has many astrophysicists and astronomers concerned, since we don't know whether it will be on a collision course with Earth.  It is obbvious that NASA and the other nation's must cooperate and work together to take corrective actions to either destroy or redirect the orbits of astroids like 2005 YU55 in order to avoid a catastrophic or extinction-level event (ELE). 

If you were wondering what it might be like if a large asteroid were to actually hit Earth, it would definitely be an "Oh, Shit!!" moment like in the following video:

 

Courtesy of an article dated October 31, 2011 appearing in the Purdue University University News Service and an article dated November 3, 2011 appearing in the Purdue University University News Service

ASTEROID 2005 YU55 PASSED SAFELY BY EARTH AT A DISTANCE OF 201,000 MILES AT 6:28 PM EST THIS MORNING, RETURNS IN 2028

The giant asteroid, Vesta, as seen in an image taken from the NASA Dawn spacecraft on July 24, 2011 (NASA Photo)

Astronomers are tracking an asteroid about the size of an aircraft carrier that on Tuesday will pass by Earth, within the moon's orbit, in the closest approach of such an object in a generation.

The 1,300-foot-wide asteroid, known as 2005 YU55, poses no hazard, experts at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory said.

 

Astronomers have trained their instruments on a huge asteroid due to cross Earth's path Tuesday, in the closet approach of such an object in a generation. Robert Lee Hotz has details on The News Hub. 

They are monitoring the spinning space rock by radar as it nears and eventually speeds past Earth at a distance of 201,000 miles. The asteroid is going 29,000 miles per hour, according to astronomers at the University of Arizona.

It is the first time since 1976 that an asteroid has come so close to Earth, and the first time astronomers have ever had this much advance notice.

By astronomers' calculations, the asteroid is expected to make its closest approach to Earth at 6:28 pm EST Tuesday. The asteroid is too dim to be seen with the naked eye and its gravity is too weak to affect tides or earthquake activity, said experts at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

New radar image of asteroid 2005 YU55 taken by NASA on Monday, November 7, 2011, showed it 3.6 lunar distances (860,000 miles or 1.38 million km) from Earth.  For a king-size blowup click HERE.

Its most important effect may be the adrenaline it has generated this week among the planetary astronomers tracking it through NASA's Deep Space Network antennas, the Arecibo radio-telescope in Puerto Rico and hundreds of telescopes world-wide. Donald K. Yeomans, head of NASA's Near-Earth Object Program Office, which tracks these objects says.

"This is an extraordinary opportunity to look at an extremely important type of asteroid.  A small army of astronomers are pretty excited about it."

Among the oldest objects in the solar system, such carbon-rich asteroids may hold water and important ores, as well as clues to the molecular origins of life on Earth. They also may become humankind's next destination in space, if current plans by NASA for a manned mission to an asteroid come to fruition.

Facts about Asteroid 2005 YU55 and the estimated number of known near-Earth objects by size (NASA)

Dr. Yeomans said.

"These objects may one day be the fueling stations and watering holes for interplanetary travel." 

The solar system harbors millions of asteroids, but only a few are known to cross Earth's path, like the gigantic object that struck the planet some 65 million years ago, part of a chain of events that led to the demise of the dinosaurs. That impact left a crater 110 miles wide in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, suggesting the original object was six miles or more in diameter.

By that standard, 2005 YU55 is a medium-size asteroid, among about an estimated 19,500 comparable space rocks between 330 feet and 3,300 feet wide believed to have orbits around the sun intercepting Earth's, according to NASA's most recent tally released in September. Some, like 2005 YU55, are rich in organic chemistry, but many are stony or more metallic. Only about a third of them have been located so far.

 

Scientists from NASA's Near-Earth Object Program and Deep Space Network discuss asteroid 2005 YU55 and the future danger posed by near-Earth objects striking the Earth (Discover.TV)

The asteroid 2005 YU55 was first detected six years ago and until now, researchers knew little more than its precise orbit. Previous observations suggest it is a fairly symmetrical stone sphere, darker than the color of charcoal, and rotates once every 18 hours.

NASA radar astronomers picked up its track on Friday and were immediately able to narrow its position to within one kilometer—50 times better than their previous best estimate.

"We pinged it," said Marina Brozovic, a planetary radar astronomer who is leading the Jet Propulsion Laboratory's team at NASA's Goldstone radar installation that is following the asteroid. "It's there."

During the next 48 hours or so, the astronomers expect to map the asteroid's surface and refine their knowledge about its orbit enough to predict its precise path well into the future. "We will probably know centuries ahead where it is going to be," said Dr. Brozovic. "We don't want any surprises."

It will be 2028 before another asteroid comes so close to Earth, when the asteroid 2001 WN5 passes at a distance of about 143,000 miles.

The fly-by of 2005 YU55 offers astronomers an opportunity to rehearse their target acquisition and tracking techniques, in the event that an asteroid is ever discovered on a collision course with Earth. "We would like to know more about them in case one was found on an Earth-threatening trajectory," Dr. Yeomans said.

COMMENTARY:    Check my previous blog posts about asteroid 2005 YU55 dated November 7, 2011, November 6, 2011, and a scary post dated September 24, 2011 about near-Earth objects  

Courtesy of an article dated November 8, 2011 appearing in Tne Wall Street Journal and an article dated November 8, 2011 appearing in CNN US and NASA's Asteroid Watch

 

 

CHINA'S EPA SAYS APPLE'S SUPPLY CHAIN IN CHINA CREATING HAZARDOUS WASTE DISASTER ON A MASSIVE SCALE, APPLE SAYS, "NO COMMENT"

Before Tim Cook became Apple's CEO, his job was to make sure that all the moving pieces of the company's massive and complex supply chain functioned smoothly, efficiently, and in the shadows. Apple's supply chain is notoriously opaque, and for good reason; the company thrives on rumors about its next big products, but all that mystique could be taken away if its supply chain was exposed.  That's not to say that Apple's suppliers are completely unknown--after Taiwanese manufacturer Foxconn experienced a spate of suicides last year, Apple executives publicly visited the factory to figure out how to prevent more people from killing themselves. It was Cook who led this delegation.

Workers lineup outside of Foxconn Precision Electronics plant for new jobs manufacturing Apple's iPhones and iPads

Despite its progress in the human rights arena, Apple has a very long way to go in improving its suppliers' environmental practices. Even the company's 2011 Supplier Responsibility Report pays little attention to environmental issues. Now that Cook, who is already getting a reputation as being a bit more friendly and open then Steve Jobs (he's already reversed the company's anti-philanthropy stance), has taken over, will the supply chain also get more friendly? Or will Cook's ultra-efficient, ulta-secretive creation keep churning out iPads at the expense of Chinese lives and the environment?

Ma Jun, the Director of China's Institute of Public and Environmental Affairs (IPE), spoke with Co.Exist at BSR's 2011 conference about the trouble with Apple's suppliers, and how the electronics manufacturer is finally gearing up to make changes.

Ma's interest in the IT supply chain stems from the dozens of heavy metal poisonings that have occurred in China since 2009. Mines, leather producers, and the chemical industry are traditionally the kinds of companies blamed for the poisonings, but the IT industry has recently also come under scrutiny.

In 2010, the IPE teamed up with The Green Beagle and the Friends of Nature to release a series of reports about the IT industry's environmental violations.  Ma says,

"At the beginning, not many companies responded. After quite a few months of interaction, Apple really stood out.  Many others would at least say okay, I received your letter, and most of them would say we need to check on [these violations]. But Apple was totally evasive if not unresponsive."

Secrecy breeds curiosity, however, and many of Apple's suspected suppliers are listed on the IPE's pollution maps, which offers the environmental supervision records of Chinese manufacturers and suppliers as well as data on local levels of water and air pollution. So the organization and a team of partner organizations decided to dig even deeper into Apple's supply chain, first with a report in January 2011, and then with a follow-up in August 2011.The first report details some grim human rights violations, but the second report delves into the environmental practices of Apple suppliers, which have not often scrutinized.  Ma says,

"We found violations of wastewater standards and water pollution, air pollution, air emissions problems, and hazardous waste disposal problems.  The volume of hazardous waste generated by the supply chain is amazing.  In one case, we found that a single factory generated 110,000 tons of hazardous waste a year."

It's an unsustainable practice on many levels, explains Ma, both because Apple (and its supply chain) is growing so fast, and because product life cycles are getting so much shorter--meaning more and more people want the goods that these factories pump out.

Take the city of Kushan, in Jiagsu Province. Kaedar Electronics and Unimicron Electronics, a pair of suppliers, are both based there. Kaedar dumps untreated wastewater into the local community's waterways and releases toxic spray coating emissions, while Unimicron releases acid gas emissions.

Many Chinese manufacturers dispose of their hazardous wastes by dumping them directly into China's streams and rivers where they arenow causing an environmental nightmare

When IPE visited Kunshan, it found locals who complained of a "poisonous gas" emitted by the companies--a smell so strong that they do not dare open their windows for fear of choking in the middle of the night. Residents also complained of chest pain, dizziness, frequent nose bleeds, and "inky black" water in a nearby stream.

The report offers this harrowing anecdote:

"During the investigation, the villagers spontaneously took water from the stream, pouring the water into a plastic bottle. Suffering from gastric cancer, Zhu Guifen, who has already had her stomach removed due to cancer, clutched a plastic bottle; along with more than ten middle-aged villagers they assembled in front of us. At that time, we were astonished by the scene in front of our camera. These 21 ladies, with an average age of 55 suddenly and simultaneously fell to their knees, clutching the bottle of polluted water and pleaded, 'We beg you, help us! Help us ordinary people!'”

21 village ladies from Kunshan simultaneously got on their knees and begged the IPE to stop the hazardous waste pollution by Foxconn Precision Electronics

Ma recalls one factory worker--an 18 year-old girl--who was poisoned while working for an Apple supplier.  Ma says, 

"After half a year [at work] she couldn't walk properly and fell to the ground. She couldn't pick up a brush or chopsticks.  She got better, but the problem is, she is not fully recovered, and her family spent so much of their money [on medical bills]. It was a desperate situation."

It's not that Apple is so much worse than its competitors. The company is just becoming so large that everything it does has an outsized impact.  Ma says,  

"Apple is simply growing from a niche market product manufacturer into a major manufacturer, and the volume is getting a lot bigger.  The sheer scale of that means that its impact is growing."

According to Ma, after the IPE and its partners published the second Apple report.

"The company expressed its willingness to set up a platform to communicate.  We had a candid discussion about issues that we identified. They explained their take, and both sides agreed that we should try to work together."

Apple still refuses to disclose its suppliers, of course, but that doesn't really matter. The IPE largely knows who Apple's suppliers are (from talking to locals and monitoring media reports), so if Apple makes changes, it will be apparent to all concerned.

The IPE has now had multiple meetings with Apple.  This past month, Ma went to Apple's Cupertino headquarters along with colleagues from the National Resource Defense Council for a five-hour meeting.  

"They're hiring experts to check up on their suppliers, on the cases we raised. They're going to update us about this."

Ma believes that pressure on suppliers from Apple is already making a difference.  He says,

"Suppliers have come to us--and local NGOs where they're based--telling us what went wrong and how they've tried to fix their problems. And some of them give us a timeline. For example, Foxconn told us they would finish their corrective actions on October 27."

In this case, the "corrective actions" include installing better emissions control equipment in workshops near local residences.

Ma also recently received a call from a factory manager at 2:30 a.m.; his factory had been discharging copper into a local waterway. The supplier urgently wanted to meet Ma and figure out a way to dredge the lake, insisting that it was because of his environmental consciousness. Ma says,

"I want to give some credit to Apple."

Apple's overtures toward the IPE have sparked hope that the company will continue to more closely regulate its supply chain. Ma cites Siemens, which has software that compares its 10,000 suppliers with the IPE's 90,000-plus pollution records, as a company to emulate. When Siemens discovers a problem, the company sends a letter in the name of the CEO and COO requesting corrective action to be taken within a certain deadline. May says,  

"It's important for Apple to move from being passive to being proactive. I'd hope they could set up their own screening system to identify problems before, in a proactive way, instead of waiting for us."

COMMENTARY:    Apple has established Supplier Responsibility requirements for its worldwide suppliers.   Below is a highlight of the opening exerpt from Apple's Supplier Responsibility requirements:

"Supplier Responsibility at Apple

Apple is committed to ensuring the highest standards of social responsibility wherever our products are made. We insist that our suppliers provide safe working conditions, treat workers with dignity and respect, and use environmentally responsible manufacturing processes.

Apple’s program is based on our comprehensive Supplier Code of Conduct, which outlines our expectations for the companies we do business with. We evaluate compliance through a rigorous auditing program and work proactively with our suppliers to drive change."

The specific language in Apple's Supplier Responsibility requirements which drew my attention is a line in the first paragraph that says, "..and use environmentally responsible manufacturing processes." 

Apple also cites its Supplier Code of Conduct as the key source for what the company expects from its suppliers.  

I have reproduced below the section titled "Environmental Impact" on pages 4 and 5 of the Supplier Code of Conduct which which outlines Apple supplier requirements that pertain to protecting the environment.  

"Environmental Impact

At Apple, environmental considerations are an integral part of our business practices. Suppliers shall commit to reducing the environmental impact of their designs, manufacturing processes, and waste emissions.

Hazardous Substance Management and Restrictions

Suppliers shall comply with the most recent version of Apple’s Regulated Substances Specification, 069-0135 and with any applicable laws and regulations prohibiting or restricting the use or handling of specific substances. To ensure safe handling, movement, storage, recycling, reuse, and disposal, Suppliers shall identify and manage substances that pose a hazard if released to the environment and comply with applicable labeling laws and regulations for recycling and disposal.  

Solid Waste Management

Suppliers shall manage and dispose of non-hazardous solid waste generated from operations as required by applicable laws and regulations.

Wastewater and Stormwater Management

Suppliers shall monitor, control, and treat wastewater generated from operations before discharge as required by applicable laws and regulations.  Supplier shall take appropriate precautions to prevent contamination of stormwater runoff from its facilities.

Air Emissions Management

Supplier shall characterize, monitor, control and treat air emissions of volatile organic chemicals, aerosols, corrosives, particulates, ozone depleting chemicals, and combustion byproducts generated from operations, as required by applicable laws and regulations, before discharge.

Environmental Permits and Reporting

Suppliers must obtain, maintain, and keep current all required environmental permits (e.g. discharge monitoring) and registrations and follow the operational and reporting requirements of such permits.

Pollution Prevention and Resource Reduction

Suppliers must endeavor to reduce or eliminate solid waste, wastewater and air emissions, including energy-related indirect air emissions, by implementing appropriate conservation measures in their production, maintenance and facilities processes, and by recycling, re-using, or substituting materials."

Apple's Supplier Code of Conduct also requires suppliers to maintain certain Documentation and Records: 

"Documentation and Records

Supplier shall have processes to identify, monitor, and understand applicable laws and regulations and the additional requirements imposed by this Code.  Supplier shall obtain, maintain and keep current a valid business license as required by applicable laws and regulations. Creation of documents and records to ensure regulatory compliance and conformity to this Code, with appropriate confidentiality measures to protect privacy."

Furthermore, to insure compliance with Apple's Supplier Code of Conduct, Apple has developed an Auditing for Complaince section which stipulates in the first two paragraphs: 

"We execute an aggressive compliance monitoring program that includes factory audits, corrective action plans, and verification measures.

Each year, Apple audits more suppliers across our supply base. We select facilities based on risk factors so that we focus our efforts where they can have the greatest impact."

Apple's Auditing for Compliance requires that Apple auditors and a local third-party auditor conduct a comprehensive audit of supplier's to insure compliance with Apple's Supplier Code of Conduct and and stipulates that those supplier's violating Apple's Supplier Code of Conduct will take correction action to insure that they are in compliance.

It certaintly appears that if Apple had performed proper compliance auditing and monitoring, that it would've discovered that Foxconn Precision Electronics, one of their major contract suppliers bar none, was not in compliance with the Environmental Impact section of Apple's Supplier Code of Conduct, or knew there were environmental violations, and either ignored them or did not monitor Foxconn adequately to insure that the supplier had taken adequate corrective actions to correct the violations and cleanup the environmental hazards.

We are not talking about minor violations of Apple's Supplier Code of Conduct, but the section dealing with Environment Impact.  According to China's IPE, when they discovered the extent of the environmental damage caused by Apple's Chinese supplier's, in particular Foxconn,

"Apple was totally evasive if not unresponsive."   

According to China's IPE report of August 31, 2011 titled, "The Other Side of Apple II -- Pollution Spreads Through Apple's Supply Chain," faced with an ever evasive Apple, a group of Chinese NGOs decided to dig deeper and carry out further investigations into the environmental problems that exist within Apple’s supply chain.  In the reportt, the IPE holds nothing back, accusing Apple of ignoring its investigations and queries.  Here's what they had to say in the Executive Summary:

"Through five months of research and field investigations we have found that the pollution discharge from this  $300 billon  dollar company  has been expanding and spreading throughout its supply chain, and has been seriously encroaching on local communities and their surrounding environments.

China's IPE List of Suspected Apple Suppliers of August 31, 2011

"Through our  investigations, we discovered that the pollution from some of Apple’s suppliers had already caused severe damage to the environment. Amongst these companies is the Meiko Electronics’ plant in Guangzhou, a suspected PCB supplier to Apple Inc. This company had previously schemed to conceal their environmental violations. However, this plan was foiled by the Environmental Protection Department. Within just a few months, this company was penalized for more than ten violations.

Furthermore, the  amount  discharged from the Meiko Electronics PCB plant, in Wuhan, is even  more than that at  the plant in  Guangzhou. The neighboring lake,  named  Nantaizi (or Southern Prince),  is seriously contaminated. Through third party monitoring the water in the discharge channel to the side of the company’s premises was found to contain heavy metals, including copper and nickel, which are standard pollutants from PCB plants. The copper content in the sediment sample, taken  from  the Nantaizi Lake and the discharge channel intersect reached as high as 4270 mg/kg, which is 56 to 1931times the amount found in the sediment in the major lakes in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River.

The large volume of discharge in Apple’s supply chain greatly endangers the public’s health and safety. Through the process of our investigations, we discovered  several  suspected suppliers to Apple that have been the target of  numerous  complaints from local communities. Located in Kunshan, the two companies  Kaedar Electronics and  Unimicron Electronics have been subject to repeated complaints from local residents due to their emissions discharge. The residents of this community worry that the health of their children will be  severely  damaged. More seriously, a  village  in the vicinity of  the company has experienced a phenomenal rise in cases of cancer. 

Foxconn Electronics, located in Taiyuan, Shanxi Province, has a huge production capacity and is involved in serious pollution resulting from its metal surface processing. In recent years the local residents have repeatedly filed complaints with local agencies against the Foxconn factory’s irritant gases. These gases often leave the nearby residents with irritated nasal passageways, watering eyes and  they sometimes make it hard for residents to open their windows, due to pollution being so intense.  The local government has called on the company to control its pollutant discharge many times, but the pollution that severely affects the quality of life for the residents has yet to be resolved. 

We  have found from this investigation that  the volume of hazardous waste produced  by suspected Apple Inc. suppliers  was especially large and  some  had failed to properly dispose of their hazardous waste. Each day, Ibiden Electronics Beijing Company produces several dozen tons of hazardous wastecontaining heavy metals copper, nickel and cyanide. However, during further checks the environmental agency discovered that even though  there are strict national regulations for  the hazardous waste transport manifests to be filled out; in this case they were all left blank. After checks, the agency also discovered that  the exact whereabouts of the heavy metals  sludge was not clear. Moreover, the Shenzhen Municipal Hazardous Waste Treatment Station  who are  responsible for the treatment of hazardous waste from the electronics industry, including Foxconn’s, was also found to have discharged pollutants against the authorized standards.

Hazardous waste is not only  directly  toxic to humans and animals, it  may also pollute the streams, rivers, lakes and seas and may infiltrate and contaminate soil and ground water through rain and snow, causing  long-term  impacts that  are  extremely  difficult to remedy and clean up. Apple’s rejection tofulfill its responsibility to disclose environmental information will likely cause an immense amount of hazardous waste released into the environment from  its supply chain, which could ultimately lead to hidden long-term environmental and public health dangers."

This is what the IPE said about their two investigations into Apple's hazardous waste pollutions and their opinion of Apple's "seemingly rigorous audits" of their supply chain.

"From these two investigations, the coalition has discovered more than 27 suspected suppliers to Apple that have had environmental problems. However, in the ‘2011 Supplier Responsibility Report’ published by Apple Inc., where core violations were discovered from the 36 audits,  not  a single violation  was based on environmental pollution. The public has no way of knowing if Apple is even aware of these problems. Again, the public has no way of knowing if Apple has pushed their suppliers to resolve these issues.

Therefore, despite Apple’s seemingly rigorous audits, pollution is  still expanding and spreading along with the supply chain. Meanwhile, on May 20th, 2011, a disastrous incident involving an explosion took place at a production line  responsible for  iPad2s at the polishing workshop at Foxconn Chengdu, causing the deaths of three  workers and injuring 15 more. After this incident, it was discovered that the first phase of this enormous plant, was expected to be the largest iPad2s supplier globally, taking only  76 days to construct. A media investigation revealed that in order to expedite construction, the polishing workshop machinery  was  installed at the same time as  that  production was taking place; meanwhile, the second batch of workers, after having  only two or three days training, were sent to their posts to begin work.

For this kind of company to have passed an audit led by Apple’s Vice-President and then go on to win the main contracts for Apple’s global iPad market, it must surely leave one to question Apple’s auditing process.  However, there has been no  way to confirm any of these queries  with Apple Inc., as the company will not actively disclose any information, nor will it even passively respond to questions regarding their suppliers. Under the cover of Apple’s annual auditing report, the company continues to issue contracts to polluting companies for its OEM production, so as to pursue blood stained profits at the cost of the environment and communities.

During the past year and four months, a group of NGOs  made attempts to push Apple along with 28 other IT brands to face these problems and the methods with which they may be resolved. Of these 29 brands, many recognised the seriousness of the pollution problem within the IT industry, with Siemens, Vodafone, Alcatel, Philips and Nokia  being amongst the first batch of brands to start utilizing the publicly available information. These companies then began to overcome the spread of pollution created by global production and sourcing, and thus turn their sourcing power into a driving force for China’s pollution control.

However, Apple  has become a special case. Even when faced with specific  allegations regarding its suppliers, the company refuses to provide answers and continues to state that  “it is our long-term policy not to disclose supplier information.” A large number of IT supplier violation records have already been  publicized; however, Apple  chooses not to face such  information  and continues to use these companies as suppliers. This can only be seen as a deliberate refusal of responsibility.

Apple has already made  a choice;  to stand on the wrong side, to  take advantage of the loopholes in developing countries’ environmental management systems, and to be closely associated with polluting factories so that it can continue to grab their own super profits, at the expense of the environment andcommunities; becoming a barrier in China’s path towards pollution reduction.

Consumers also need to make a choice. We believe Apple’s consumers would not accept the poisoning of the environment, the harm to communities and the sacrifice of employee rights in exchange for their  trendy electronic products. For the sake of the health of the public, the protection of the environment, the basic rights of workers in Apple’s production lines, and in order to give our children a safe and clean place to live; we call upon consumers to express their concerns to Apple, so that Apple can hear the voice of the public."

The text of the report is seething in its condemnation of Apple, provides all the gory details, leaving nothing to the imagination, and lays the entire blame for the widespread hazardous waste pollution catastrophe now occuring throughout China due to Apple's supply chain.  Figure 13 on page 13 lists the names of Chinese nationals from a community located in Kunshan City, Jiangsu Provice, who contracted cancer due to exposure to hazardous wastes of Kaedar and Unimicron, two of Apple's major suppliers (see above).

As far as I could find, Apple has not publicly responded directly to the findings of IPE's report of August 31, 2011 and the matter still remains open and unresolved.   

Courtesy of an  article dated November 7, 2011 appearing in Fast Company and an article dated February 15, 2011 appearing in The Los Angeles Times

NASA'S GOLDSTONE DEEP SPACE NETWORK ANTENNA TO LIVE TRACK ASTEROID 2005 YU55 FLYBY OF EARTH ON NOV 8, 2011

 

NASA scientists will be tracking asteroid 2005 YU55 with antennas of the agency's Deep Space Network at Goldstone, Calif., as the space rock safely flies past Earth slightly closer than the moon's orbit on Nov. 8. Scientists are treating the flyby of the 1,300-foot-wide (400-meter) asteroid as a science target of opportunity – allowing instruments on "spacecraft Earth" to scan it during the close pass.

The 70-meter diameter Deep Space Network radio telescope located at Goldstone, Ca. will be live tracking asteroid 2005 YU55 on its historic near-Earth pass on November 8, 2011 (Click Image To Enlarge)

Tracking of the aircraft carrier-sized asteroid will begin at 9:30 a.m. local time (PDT) on Nov. 4, using the massive 70-meter (230-foot) Deep Space Network antenna, and last for about two hours. The asteroid will continue to be tracked by Goldstone for at least four hours each day from Nov. 6 through Nov. 10. Radar observations from the Arecibo Planetary Radar Facility in Puerto Rico will begin on Nov. 8, the same day the asteroid will make its closest approach to Earth at 3:28 p.m. PST.

Arecibo Planetary Radar Facility in Puerto Rico

The Arecibo radar telescope spotted the asteroid 2005 YU55 back in April 2010, and those observations provided the ghostly image of that asteroid below. Nasa hopes to get higher resolution snaps -- with details as fine as two metres per pixel -- during its flyby of Earth.

The Arecibo radar telescope spotted asteroid 2005 YU55 back in April 2010 and captured this ghostly image.

The trajectory of asteroid 2005 YU55 is well understood. At the point of closest approach, it will be no closer than 201,700 miles (324,600 kilometers) or 0.85 the distance from the moon to Earth. The gravitational influence of the asteroid will have no detectable effect on anything here on Earth, including our planet's tides or tectonic plates. Although 2005 YU55 is in an orbit that regularly brings it to the vicinity of Earth (and Venus and Mars), the 2011 encounter with Earth is the closest this space rock has come for at least the last 200 years.

During tracking, scientists will use the Goldstone and Arecibo antennas to bounce radio waves off the space rock. Radar echoes returned from 2005 YU55 will be collected and analyzed. NASA scientists hope to obtain images of the asteroid from Goldstone as fine as about 7 feet (2 meters) per pixel. This should reveal a wealth of detail about the asteroid's surface features, shape, dimensions and other physical properties (see "Radar Love" -http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.cfm?release=2006-00a).

Arecibo radar observations of asteroid 2005 YU55 made in 2010 show it to be approximately spherical in shape. It is slowly spinning, with a rotation period of about 18 hours. The asteroid's surface is darker than charcoal at optical wavelengths. Amateur astronomers who want to get a glimpse at YU55 will need a telescope with an aperture of 6 inches (15 centimeters) or larger.

The last time a space rock as big came as close to Earth was in 1976, although astronomers did not know about the flyby at the time. The next known approach of an asteroid this large will be in 2028.

NASA detects, tracks and characterizes asteroids and comets passing close to Earth using both ground- and space-based telescopes. The Near-Earth Object Observations Program, commonly called "Spaceguard," discovers these objects, characterizes a subset of them, and plots their orbits to determine if any could be potentially hazardous to our planet.

NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory manages the Near-Earth Object Program Office for NASA's Science Mission Directorate in Washington. JPL is a division of the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena.

• More information about asteroids and near-Earth objects is at: http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/asteroidwatch.
• More information about asteroid radar research is at: http://echo.jpl.nasa.gov/ .
• More information about the Deep Space Network is at: http://deepspace.jpl.nasa.gov/dsn .

BEST PLACE TO VIEW IN NORTH AMERICA:  

Best seen from North America, the little asteroid 2005 YU55 will race far across the constellations in just 11 hours. The box on the top chart below shows the area of the closeup above. There, the asteroid is plotted for just over an hour on the evening of November 8th for North America (from 1:51 to 3:12 November 9th Universal Time). North is up, east is left. On each of the little upside-down maps of the U.S., put a pencil dot on your location. These are the asteroid’s apparent positions at 2:00 and 3:00 UT for your site. Connect your dots with a straight line paralleling the line plotted, which is for Kansas.  

Click Image To Enlarge

COMMENTARY:   That famous communique from Apollo 11 during the historic first-ever moon walk, 

"That's one small step for man. One giant leap for mankind."

 was brought to you by the 64-meter antenna at NASA's Deep Space Network in Goldstone, Calif.

The antenna has accumulated a rich legacy during its 40 years of supporting space exploration. In addition to capturing the words of astronauts on all the Apollo moon missions, the dish has communicated with the computers and equipment on every one of NASA's major robotic solar system explorers.

The "Big Dish" enabled the world to see the first-ever close-up images of Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune, their rings and their myriad moons, by the Pioneer, Voyager, Galileo and Cassini missions. The antenna has also communicated with NASA's Mars missions, including the currently-operating fleet of five: Mars Global Surveyor, Mars Odyssey, the Mars Exploration Rovers and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter.

The antenna's history stretches back to 1963, when the United States and Russia were engaged in a high-stakes space race. Engineers were relying on smaller antennas to keep tabs on NASA's earliest missions, which ventured only as far as orbit around Earth. With the development of the Mariner Mars missions, more powerful communications tools were needed.

The plan was to build a 64-meter antenna at Goldstone, one of three sites of the Deep Space Network. In 1963, Rohr Corporation was awarded a $12 million contract to design and build the big dish.

After two years of construction, a testing phase began to determine how well the antenna would receive signals. In March 1966, engineers pointed the dish toward Mariner 4, which had been lost by smaller antennas after its historic Mars flyby in 1965. Eureka! Mariner 4 sent a signal, and the Goldstone antenna picked it up.

To commemorate this historic event, the 64-meter antenna was named "Mars," or more technically, Deep Space Station 14. After three months of calibrations and personnel training, the Mars antenna became the first operational 64-meter antenna of the Deep Space Network in June 1966.

NASA JPL's Deep Space Network includes three communications facilities placed about 120 degrees apart around the world at three strategic locations:

• Goldstone Deep Space Communications Complex (GDSCC) located at Goldstone, California.
• Madrid Deep Space Communications Complex (MDSCC) located at Madrid, Spain. 
• Canberra Deep Space Communications Complex (CDSCC) located at Canberra, Australia. 

The following map shows NASA JPL's Deep Space Network radio telescope locations in Goldstone, CA U.S. (Goldstone), Madrid, Spain (Robledo) and Canberra, Australia (Tidbinbilla):

Click Image To Enlarge

As Earth rotates, this strategic placement permits ground controllers to maintain constant observation of robotic spacecraft exploring the solar system and beyond.

Goldstone Deep Space Communications Complex (GDSCC):

 

Madrid Deep Space Communications Complex (MDSCC):

 

Canberra Deep Space Communications Complex (CDSCC):

 

The pioneering Mars antenna was later to expand its repertoire - and its size. In the late 1960s, the antenna was called on to support all the American lunar missions, including Apollo 11, and the nerve-wracking "Houston, we have a problem" Apollo 13 mission. During the critical re-entry of that space capsule, it was more essential then ever for engineers on the ground to maintain contact with the astronauts. The craft's minimal power was needed for re-entry, with little left over for transmitted communications. The antenna was able to capture the "whispers from space," and helped bring the astronauts home safely.

As the years passed, NASA pushed the boundaries of space travel farther and farther. The transmitting capability of the 64-meter antenna was expanded for the Viking Mars landers in the mid-1970s. In 1988, the antenna was enlarged to 70 meters (230 feet) to support the Voyager 2 flyby of the distant planet Neptune.

Today's 70-meter antenna can do much more than track spacecraft. It's also used for solar system radar, imaging nearby planets, asteroids and comets. It does this by transmitting a 500,000-watt signal to "bounce" off the object and return the resulting signal to Earth. Radar allows us to figure out the paths of asteroids and comets and determine whether any might be a possible future threat to earth. The antenna is also used for Very Long Baseline Interferometry, in conjunction with a radio telescope at one of the other Deep Space Network Stations, to precisely measure Earth's orientation. This information helps with spacecraft navigation.

With a fleet of NASA missions already flying and many more planned for the future, the 70-meter Goldstone antenna and the other dishes of the Deep Space Network have a busy lifetime ahead of them.

Courtesy of an article dated October 26, 2011 appearing in NASA's Asteroid and Comet Watch and an article dated March 28, 2006 appearing in NASA JPL's Deep Space Network and an article dated November 7, 2011 appearing in Wired.co.UK

ASTEROID 2005 YU55 TO PASS NEAR EARTH IN NOVEMBER 8, 2011, PASS BETWEEN EARTH AND THE MOON, COULD IMPACT EARTH

Asteroid 2005 YU55 to Approach Earth on November 8, 2011

• National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
• Near Earth Object Program
• Don Yeomans, Lance Benner and Jon Giorgini
• March 10, 2011

City University of New York professor of physics Dr. Michio Kaku appeared on Fox News and says that asteroid 2005 YU55 represents the "first major threat" faced by Earth from a meteriod or asteroid, but there is only a small chance that it will actually hit us on this first pass.  

Asteroid 2005 YU55 comes around for a "second pass" of Earth on Friday, April 13, 2036, and that's the date that worries scientists and astronomers the most, because it could come close enough to actually impact earth.  If it were to impact with Earth, Dr. Kaku describes it as a "Nation Buster".  Dr. Kaku says,

"It'll take out Germany, it'll take out France, England or the entire northeast of the United States. It will hit with a force of 100,000 Hiroshima bombs.  It's a catastrophe beyond human comprehension"  

The effects of an impact of asteroid 2005 YU55 with the Earth would shower our planet with molten rock and burning debris reaching out for a radius of 1,000 miles from the point of impact.   

 

Near-Earth asteroid 2005 YU55 will pass within 0.85 lunar distances from the Earth on November 8, 2011. The upcoming close approach by this relatively large 400 meter-sized, C-type asteroid presents an excellent opportunity for synergistic ground-based observations including optical, near infrared and radar data. The attached animated illustration shows the Earth and moon flyby geometry for November 8th and 9th when the object will reach a visual brightness of 11th magnitude and should be easily visible to observers in the northern and southern hemispheres. The closest approach to Earth and the Moon will be respectively 0.00217 AU and 0.00160 AU on 2011 November 8 at 23:28 and November 9 at 07:13 UT.

 [Click Image To Enlarge]

Discovered December 28, 2005 by Robert McMillan of the Spacewatch Program near Tucson Arizona, the object has been previously observed by Mike Nolan, Ellen Howell and colleagues with the Arecibo radar on April 19-21, 2010 and shown to be a very dark, nearly spherical object 400 meters in diameter. Because of its approximate 20-hour rotation period, ideal radar observations should include tracks that are 8 hours or longer on multiple dates at Goldstone (November 3-11) and when the object enters Arecibo's observing window on November 8th.

Using the Goldstone radar operating in a relatively new "chirp" mode, the November 2011 radar opportunity could result in a shape model reconstruction with a resolution of as fine as 4 meters. Several days of high resolution imaging (about 7.5 meters) are also planned at Arecibo. As well as aiding the interpretation of the radar observations, collaborative visual and near infrared observations could define the object's rotation characteristics and provide constraints upon the nature of the object's surface roughness and mineral composition.

Since the asteroid will approach the Earth from the sunward direction, it will be a daylight object until the time of closest approach. The best time for new ground-based optical and infrared observations will be late in the day on November 8, after 21:00 hours UT from the eastern Atlantic and western Africa zone. A few hours after its close Earth approach, it will become generally accessible for optical and near-IR observations but will provide a challenging target because of its rapid motion across the sky.

 [Click Image To Enlarge]

April 29, 2010

Near-Earth asteroid 2005 YU55 was "imaged" by the Arecibo Radar Telescope in Puerto Rico on April 19. Data collected during Arecibo's observation of 2005 YU55 allowed the Near-Earth Object Program Office at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory to refine the space rock's orbit, allowing scientists to rule out any possibility of an Earth impact for the next 100 years. 

 [Click Image To Enlarge]

The space rock was about 2.3 million kilometers (1.5 million miles) from Earth at the time this image of the radar echo was generated. The ghostly image has a resolution of 7.5 meters (25 feet) per pixel. It reveals 2005 YU55 as a spherical object about 400 meters (1,300 feet) in size. 

 

Not only can the radar provide data on an asteroid's dimensions, but also on its exact location in space. Using Arecibo's high-precision radar astrometry capability, scientists were able to reduce orbit uncertainties for YU55 by 50 percent. 

Steve Chesley, a scientist at JPL's Near-Earth Object Program Office said. 

"At one time we had classified 2005 YU55 as a potential threat," Prior to the Arecibo radar passes on April 19 thru 21, we had eliminated almost all upcoming Earth flybys as possibilities of impact. But there were a few that had a low remaining probability of impact. After incorporating the data from Arecibo, we were able to rule impacts out entirely for the next 100 years." 

With more observations in the coming years, scientists may be able to accurately plot 2005 YU55's orbit even further out. 

NASA detects, tracks and characterizes asteroids and comets passing close to Earth using both ground- and space-based telescopes. The Near-Earth Object Observations Program, commonly called "Spaceguard," discovers these objects, characterizes a subset of them, and plots their orbits to determine if any could be potentially hazardous to our planet. 

JPL manages the Near-Earth Object Program Office for NASA's Science Mission Directorate in Washington. JPL is a division of the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena. 

COMMENTARY: Charles F. Bolden, Jr., NASA Administrator and a former NASA astronaut recorded the following video (my apologies about the insertion of 700 Club religious propaganda from the maker of the video) about being prepared for natural disasters and attacks like 911. Mr. Bolden speaks about making adequaate emergency preparations like having an emergency kit and communications plan.  Although Mr. Bolden does not specifically mention near-earth astroids or Asteroid 2005 YU55, why is he talking about emergency preparedness.   Mr. Bolden claims that the motivation for the emergency prepared speech was based on a FEMA exercise called "Eagle Horizon".   He could just as easily sent out an interagency email.  What were Mr. Bolden's true motivation for recording that speech?  hmmm.

It's just incredible how many near earth orbit space objects have been reported over the years and expected to come close to planet Earth.  NASA's Nearth Earth Object Program has been tracking near-earth astroids since 1995.  As the technology to observe NEAs has improved over time, more NEAs have been discovered.  By the end of the year 2000 about 900 NEAs of all sizes had been discovered.  By the end of March 2011 a total of over 8,000 NEAs of all sizes have been discovered to date.  About 800 of those NEAs are considered large enough (over 1,000 meters in diameter) to cause great damage to earth.  The majority of NEA's average about 500 meters in diameter, and over 2,500 have been discovered.  This gives you an idea just how many NEAs are out thee that we know about.  Below  is a wide range of information of near-earth asteroids that have been discovered by NASA's Near Earth Object Program:

The following charts and tables have been revised to reflect improved estimates for near-Earth asteroid (NEA) reflectivities (albedos) - and hence diameters. The absolute magnitude of a NEA (H) is a measure of the object's brightness one astronomical unit from the sun and Earth and at zero phase angle (i.e., the angle between the sun and Earth, as seen from the NEA, is zero). The absolute magnitude (H) for a particular NEA is computed from the observed apparent magnitudes of the object at various times when the phase angles and the distances from the sun and Earth are known. A value for H can then be converted to an effective diameter using an assumed value for the NEA's reflectivity (albedo). An effective diameter is the diameter of a hypothetical spherical NEA that would provide the same apparent brightness as the observed NEA, whose actual shape is unknown.

Until relatively recently, the mean albedo for NEAs was thought to be 0.11 so the corresponding absolute magnitude for a NEA whose effective diameter is one kilometer was thought to be H = 18.0. Tables and charts based upon H = 18.0 have been provided on this web site since its inception and these charts can still be viewed at the following link.

Recent work by Stuart (2003) and others have shown that NEAs are, in the mean, 20% brighter than previously thought so that the mean albedo for NEAs is 0.14 rather than 0.11. Using this revised mean albedo implies the absolute magnitude (H) for a NEA with an effective one kilometer diameter is 17.75. The charts and plots given below reflect this recent update.

Stuart, J.S. (2003). Observational Constraints on the Number, Albedos, Sizes, and Impact Hazards of the Near-Earth Asteroids. Ph.D. thesis, MIT.

The chart below shows the total known number of near-earth astroids per size bin.  Diameters are estimated using an assumed average albedo for NEAs.  The first size bin represents NEAs smaller than 30 meters in diameter.  The second represents NEAS with diameters from 30 meters to 100 meters, and so on.

PREPARATIONS BEING MADE TO OBSERVE AND RECORD 2005 YU55 FLYBY

Lance Benner, a research scientist at JPL and a specialist on radar imaging of near-Earth objects. He said part of the plan is to observe the asteroid with radar using both the huge Arecibo dish in Puerto Rico and equipment at Goldstone.

Close and big

Don Yeomans, manager of NASA’s Near-Earth Object Program Office and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif. said.  

“The close Earth approach of 2005 YU55 on Nov. 8, is unusual since it is close and big. On average, one wouldn’t expect an object this big to pass this close but every 30 years,” 

Yeomans said that with new radar capabilities at Goldstone in California — part of NASA’s Deep Space Network — there is a good chance of obtaining radar imaging of 2005 YU55 down to the 5-meter resolution level. Doing so, he said, would mean obtaining higher spatial resolution of the object than that attained by recent spacecraft flyby missions.

He said.  

“So we like to think of this opportunity as a close flyby mission with Earth as the spacecraft,” Yeomans told SPACE.com. “When combined with ground-based optical and near-infrared observations, the radar data should provide a fairly complete picture of one of the larger potentially hazardous asteroids.” 

Asteroid 2005 YU55 is a slow rotator. Because of its size and proximity to Earth, the Minor Planet Center in Cambridge, Mass., has designated the space rock as a “potentially hazardous asteroid.” 

Dishing it out

Lance Benner, a research scientist at JPL and a specialist on radar imaging of near-Earth objects. He said part of the plan is to observe the asteroid with radar using both the huge Arecibo dish in Puerto Rico and equipment at Goldstone.

“We’re already preparing for the 2005 YU55 flyby. The asteroid will approach from the south, so Goldstone has the first chance to observe it due to its declination coverage.”

To help coordinate the observing campaigns, “Radar Observations Planning” websites have been set up for this unusual occasion, Benner said.

“This flyby will be the closest by any near-Earth asteroid with an absolute magnitude this bright since 1976 and until 2028.  Having said that, nobody saw 2010 XC15 during its close flyby within 0.5 lunar distance in 1976.”

He said, noting that this asteroid wasn’t discovered until late in 2010.  

“Thus, the flyby by 2005 YU55 will be the closest actually observed by something this large, so it represents a unique opportunity.  In a real sense, this will provide imaging resolution comparable to or even better than a spacecraft mission flyby.” 

Radar paint

Benner said that because the asteroid is zooming by Earth so very close, radar echoes will be extremely strong. One facility at Goldstone will be used to transmit and “radar paint” the object…another Goldstone dish is on tap to snag the reflected echo of radar data.

What can radar do?

Information collected by this technique, for example, can be transformed into 3-D shapes, with surface features and spin rates identified. The asteroid’s roughness and density can also be assessed. Furthermore, radar can improve the whereabouts of the object. By greatly shrinking uncertainties for newly discovered meandering NEOs, that in turn enables motion prediction for decades to centuries.

As for seeing the asteroid with small telescopes, start getting your gear ready.

Initially, the object will be too close to the sun and too faint for optical observers. But late in the day (Universal Time) on Nov. 8, the solar elongation will grow sufficiently to see it. Early on Nov. 9, the asteroid could reach about 11th magnitude for several hours before it fades as its distance rapidly increases, Benner explained.

Let's hope that NASA's NEA observatories are well funded.  The last truly catastrophic life-ending asteroid slammed into the Earth about 65 million years ago and killed all the dinosaurs.  We are long overdue for another big one, and the odds increase dramatically that we will be hit again. 

Should Asteroid 2005 YU55 impact with Earth, I would also like to give my blogging fans complete assurances that I will be blogging no matter what happens.   

LATEST FROM NASA!!

According to NASA, there is no cause for alarm, and the only thing that I could find is there original announcement of March 10, 2011 shown in its entirety below:

"Near-Earth asteroid 2005 YU55 will pass within 0.85 lunar distances from the Earth on November 8, 2011. The upcoming close approach by this relatively large 400 meter-sized, C-type asteroid presents an excellent opportunity for synergistic ground-based observations including optical, near infrared and radar data. The attached animated illustration shows the Earth and moon flyby geometry for November 8th and 9th when the object will reach a visual brightness of 11th magnitude and should be easily visible to observers in the northern and southern hemispheres. The closest approach to Earth and the Moon will be respectively 0.00217 AU and 0.00160 AU on 2011 November 8 at 23:28 and November 9 at 07:13 UT.

Discovered December 28, 2005 by Robert McMillan of the Spacewatch Program near Tucson Arizona, the object has been previously observed by Mike Nolan, Ellen Howell and colleagues with the Arecibo radar on April 19-21, 2010 and shown to be a very dark, nearly spherical object 400 meters in diameter. Because of its approximate 20-hour rotation period, ideal radar observations should include tracks that are 8 hours or longer on multiple dates at Goldstone (November 3-11) and when the object enters Arecibo's observing window on November 8th.

Using the Goldstone radar operating in a relatively new "chirp" mode, the November 2011 radar opportunity could result in a shape model reconstruction with a resolution of as fine as 4 meters. Several days of high resolution imaging (about 7.5 meters) are also planned at Arecibo. As well as aiding the interpretation of the radar observations, collaborative visual and near infrared observations could define the object's rotation characteristics and provide constraints upon the nature of the object's surface roughness and mineral composition.

Since the asteroid will approach the Earth from the sunward direction, it will be a daylight object until the time of closest approach. The best time for new ground-based optical and infrared observations will be late in the day on November 8, after 21:00 hours UT from the eastern Atlantic and western Africa zone. A few hours after its close Earth approach, it will become generally accessible for optical and near-IR observations but will provide a challenging target because of its rapid motion across the sky.

Although classified as a potentially hazardous object, 2005 YU55 poses no threat of an Earth collision over at least the next 100 years. However, this will be the closest approach to date by an object this large that we know about in advance and an event of this type will not happen again until 2028 when asteroid (153814) 2001 WN5 will pass to within 0.6 lunar distances."

Below is NASA's animation showing the path of asteroid 2005 YU55 as it passes between the orbits of Earth and ther Moon.

Trajectory of asteroid 2005 Yu55 - November 8-9, 2011 (CLICK ABOVE IMAGE TO VIEW)

Here's the official video by Lance Benner, Research Scientist for NASA's Jet Propulsion Lap (JPL):

Asteroid 2005 YU55

Just in case asteroid 2005 YU55 should hit Earth, or even the Moon, I wanted to have this video as a public record of NASA's official position regarding the asteroid.

Asteroid 2005 YU55 will NOT be viewable by the naked eye or ground-based telescopes from anywhere in the U.S.  Asteroid 2005 YU55 for new ground-based optical and infrared observations will be late in the day on November 8, after 21:00 hours UT from the eastern Atlantic and western Africa zone.  A few hours after its close Earth approach, it will become generally accessible for optical and near-IR observations but will provide a challenging target because of its rapid motion across the sky.

You can bet that NASA, space scientists and astronomers and a few fortunate individuals will be able to see asteroid 2005 YU55, and hopefully some of them will be able to shoot a video of the event when that happens, and post it on YouTube or on the NASA website.  You can bet that as soon as that video is available, I will post an update on my blog.  

Courtesy of an announcement prepared by Don Yeomans, Lance Benner and Jon Giorgini dated March 10, 2011 by NASA Near Earth Object Program and NASA Nearth Earth Object Program Near-Earth Asteroid Discovery Statistics and and article dated April 7, 2011 appearing in Space.com and a NASA profile of  NASA Administrator, Charles F. Bolden Jr.

GLOBAL GREEN USA'S STAR-STUDDED VIDEO ABOUT THE THREAT OF RISING OCEAN LEVELS DUE TO GLOBAL WARMING

Mark Ruffalo, James Cameron, and Kevin Bacon want you. An exclusive look at Global Green USA's new one-minute video designed to get people concerned and taking action about rising oceans.

Did you know that 150 million Americans (53% of the population) are in danger just because they live in cities at risk for flooding? You didn’t? That’s exactly what Matt Petersen and his team at Global Green USA thought. So they created a short video featuring a celebrity cast of thousands (think Mark Ruffalo, Adrian Grenier, James Cameron, Kevin Bacon) to get you to sit up and take notice. Then do something.

 

Click Image To Enlarge

The video clip titled, “I Am,” clocks in at 31 seconds in length and is one part public service announcement, one part call to action and one part “how did they get all those people together to do this?” The intent, according to Petersen, who is currently attending the Clinton Global Initiative, is not only to educate but to call people to action in their communities.

 

Petersen tells Fast Company that climate change is “an indisputable scientific fact” and with over 12,000 miles of coastline the U.S. is particularly threatened by rising sea levels, as well increasing storms like Hurricane Irene. The flooding and erosion that follow could cost coastal cities trillions of dollars and thousands of lost lives.

He says.

“The influencers in our society in sport, music, and film, garner a great deal of attention. As an organization 95% of the work we do is substantive and technical so we reach out to them to help break through media clutter and get traction.” 

By traction, Petersen means viral. The hope is that a star-studded PSA will be enticing enough for people to click Global Green USA’s “Join the Fight” button on its landing page or via YouTube and commit to make a difference. Global Green USA is inviting concerned individuals to upload a photo of themselves touting their pledge to improve their city. The pledge is in the form of a sign, screen printing on a T-shirt, or anything else that says “I am[insert city name here].” 

All those photos are going to be pushed through Global Green’s back-end architecture, then Petersen maintains, individuals will be held to their commitment, whether it’s organizing a local awareness group or writing to a Congressional leader. “We are going to have follow-up and share their stories on our site and blog as they make progress. We will pick one person to win VIP tickets to our Oscars party,” traveling in eco-friendly style, of course.

There are also plans to launch a video campaign to track progress and engage even more people. Petersen says that this shouldn’t take the place of a continued effort to work with big corporations and government to raise awareness and demand change, but he says, “To do something, big or small, we need local action. Our main push is for individuals.”

Petersen concedes that the video’s celebrity status is no guarantee for success. He does have reason to be optimistic though, given examples like Crowdrise, which has managed to galvanize individual efforts into fund-raising for 1.5 million charities with a little help from Hollywood hotshot Edward Norton. 

Petersen has also witnessed the power of educating and empowering communities. His vision for the rebuilding of New Orleans has led to the greening of New Orleans schools, helped educate thousands of residents to rebuild their homes more energy efficiently, and helped create the Holy Cross Project, a sustainable village in the Lower 9th Ward with 23 units of affordable housing and a community/climate action center.

This new initiative, he says, is just one more step to “building us better communities and finding solutions to global warming.”

Paraphrasing the words of former President Clinton--who Petersen was just listening to before this interview--he says, “[Climate change] is an opportunity--not a problem--if we approach it the right way with a sense of collaboration.”

COMMENTARY:  I totally agree with Global Green USA.  The world is headed for a catastrophic disaster unless we take serious action to curb greenhouse gas emissions NOW.  The facts are in:  The world's oceans are beginning to warm at accelerating rates.  The Arctic ice shelf is beginning to melt. Greenland's glaciers are already breaking away.  Please get the word out.  Join The Fight.

In a blog post dated October 3, 2010, I reported on June 10, 2011, NASA launched into space Aquarius, a scientific instrument used to measure the salt content of the world's oceans, information that could help confirm scientists' suspicions that climate change is accelerating the world's water cycle and causing sea levels to rise rapidly.  Aquarius is part of a joint mission between NASA and Argentina's space agency.

Courtesy of an article dated September 21, 2011 appearing in Fast Company

 

 

NASA ISSUES WARNING OF A MASSIVE SOLAR FLARE IN 2012/2013, AFFECTS ON EARTH COULD BE CATASTROPHIC

March 10, 2006: It's official: Solar minimum has arrived. Sunspots have all but vanished. Solar flares are nonexistent. The sun is utterly quiet.

Like the quiet before a storm.

This week researchers announced that a storm is coming--the most intense solar maximum in fifty years. The prediction comes from a team led by Mausumi Dikpati of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). "The next sunspot cycle will be 30% to 50% stronger than the previous one," she says. If correct, the years ahead could produce a burst of solar activity second only to the historic Solar Max of 1958.

That was a solar maximum. The Space Age was just beginning: Sputnik was launched in Oct. 1957 and Explorer 1 (the first US satellite) in Jan. 1958. In 1958 you couldn't tell that a solar storm was underway by looking at the bars on your cell phone; cell phones didn't exist. Even so, people knew something big was happening when Northern Lights were sighted three times in Mexico. A similar maximum now would be noticed by its effect on cell phones, GPS, weather satellites and many other modern technologies.

Right: Intense auroras over Fairbanks, Alaska, in 1958. [More]

Dikpati's prediction is unprecedented. In nearly-two centuries since the 11-year sunspot cycle was discovered, scientists have struggled to predict the size of future maxima—and failed. Solar maxima can be intense, as in 1958, or barely detectable, as in 1805, obeying no obvious pattern.

The key to the mystery, Dikpati realized years ago, is a conveyor belt on the sun.

We have something similar here on Earth—the Great Ocean Conveyor Belt, popularized in the sci-fi movieThe Day After Tomorrow. It is a network of currents that carry water and heat from ocean to ocean--see the diagram below. In the movie, the Conveyor Belt stopped and threw the world's weather into chaos.

Above: Earth's "Great Ocean Conveyor Belt." [More]

The sun's conveyor belt is a current, not of water, but of electrically-conducting gas. It flows in a loop from the sun's equator to the poles and back again. Just as the Great Ocean Conveyor Belt controls weather on Earth, this solar conveyor belt controls weather on the sun. Specifically, it controls the sunspot cycle.

Solar physicist David Hathaway of the National Space Science & Technology Center (NSSTC) explains: "First, remember what sunspots are--tangled knots of magnetism generated by the sun's inner dynamo. A typical sunspot exists for just a few weeks. Then it decays, leaving behind a 'corpse' of weak magnetic fields."

Enter the conveyor belt.

"The top of the conveyor belt skims the surface of the sun, sweeping up the magnetic fields of old, dead sunspots. The 'corpses' are dragged down at the poles to a depth of 200,000 km where the sun's magnetic dynamo can amplify them. Once the corpses (magnetic knots) are reincarnated (amplified), they become buoyant and float back to the surface." Presto—new sunspots!

Right: The sun's "great conveyor belt." [Larger image]

All this happens with massive slowness. "It takes about 40 years for the belt to complete one loop," says Hathaway. The speed varies "anywhere from a 50-year pace (slow) to a 30-year pace (fast)."

When the belt is turning "fast," it means that lots of magnetic fields are being swept up, and that a future sunspot cycle is going to be intense. This is a basis for forecasting: "The belt was turning fast in 1986-1996," says Hathaway. "Old magnetic fields swept up then should re-appear as big sunspots in 2010-2011."

Like most experts in the field, Hathaway has confidence in the conveyor belt model and agrees with Dikpati that the next solar maximum should be a doozy. But he disagrees with one point. Dikpati's forecast puts Solar Max at 2012. Hathaway believes it will arrive sooner, in 2010 or 2011.

"History shows that big sunspot cycles 'ramp up' faster than small ones," he says. "I expect to see the first sunspots of the next cycle appear in late 2006 or 2007—and Solar Max to be underway by 2010 or 2011."

Who's right? Time will tell. Either way, a storm is coming.

COMMENTARY:   According to Dr. Richard Fisher, director of NASA's Heliphysics division, after the earth is hit by a once-in-a-generation "space storm", solar flares will cause devastation that could result in widespread power blackouts and critical communication signals could be knocked out for long periods of time.  

The solar storms  which will cause the Sun to reach temperatures of more than 10,000 F (5500C), occur only a few times over a person’s life. Every 22 years the Sun’s magnetic energy cycle peaks while the number of sun spots and solar flares hits a maximum level every 11 years.

National power grids could overheat and air travel severely disrupted while electronic items, navigation devices and major satellites could stop working after the Sun reaches its maximum power in a few years.

Senior space agency scientists believe the Earth will be hit with unprecedented levels of magnetic energy from solar flares after the Sun wakes “from a deep slumber” sometime around 2013, Britain's The Daily Telegraph reported.

In a Fox television interview, renowned physicist Michio Kaku, says that a once-in-100-years massive solar flare could cause $2 trillion in damages to our communications and electronics infrastructure.  Here's the video:

 

Let's hope that Dr. Kaku is wrong.

In a new warning, NASA said the super storm would hit like “a bolt of lightning” and could cause catastrophic consequences for the world’s health, emergency services and national security unless precautions are taken.

Scientists believe it could damage everything from emergency services’ systems, hospital equipment, banking systems and air traffic control devices, through to “everyday” items such as home computers, iPods and Sat Navs.

Due to humans’ heavy reliance on electronic devices, which are sensitive to magnetic energy, the storm could leave a multi-billion dollar damage bill and “potentially devastating” problems for governments.

Dr. Richard Fisher said in a Daily Telegraph interview:

“We know it is coming but we don’t know how bad it is going to be.  "It will disrupt communication devices such as satellites and car navigations, air travel, the banking system, our computers, everything that is electronic. It will cause major problems for the world. Large areas will be without electricity power and to repair that damage will be hard as that takes time.  Systems will just not work. The flares change the magnetic field on the earth that is rapid and like a lightning bolt. That is the solar affect.”

I wondered to myself, can this prediction of a massive solar flare, if it should come true, harm humans here on earth?   The answer is NO, but I qualify this somewhat.  Here's what scientists say in a very detailed explanation of solar flares:

The Earth’s magnetic field (magnetosphere) acts as an enormous protector against the shower of particles that comes along with a large solar flare. It sweeps aside the particles as they come cascading down on the planet, deflecting them to the north and south poles of the Earth, which then pushes them off into space. The particles that make it past the magnetic fields are absorbed by the Earth’s ionosphere (see section 1). However, if a solar flare is powerful enough, some of the radioactive particles cannot be fully deflected and absorbed by these two forces and make it to the Earth’s surface. There is no scientific indication that this could actually cause catastrophic harm to life on this planet (unlike the inaccurate depiction of solar flares in the recent Hollywood movie Knowing, which suggests that a large enough solar flare could heat up the Earth and cause it to be engulfed by all-destructive radiation and heat). The effects of immense ejections of radiation brought about by large solar flares are in fact negligible to biological systems on Earth. 

I saw the movie "Knowing" starring Nicholas Cage, and it mostly sucked, but I didn't like the ending.  Okay, since you all wanted to know, here's how that damn movie ENDS.  I have a feeling some neocon is going to blame Obama.

Courtesy of an article dated March 10, 2006 appearing in NASA Science News and an article dated June 17, 2010 appearing in The Daily Galaxy and an article titled "How Do Solar Flares Affect Human Existence" appearing in Intense Cogitation