The Apple Watch, despite years of hype before it was even announced, appears to be flopping after all.
It wasn't a good sign when Apple announced shortly before the Watch release that they weren't going to be breaking out sales numbers. Now, a new report from third-party analysts Slice Intelligence not only show that Apple Watch sales are down 90% since launch—a big deal, since it implies early adopters aren't regaling more cautious buyers with glowing word-of-mouth—but also that Fitbit is outselling Apple in the wearables space. Apple may have already crushed small time smartwatch companies like Pebble, but the Watch has failed to disrupt the larger wearable marketplace.
Imagine if months after the iPad release, we learned it still hadn't outsold some model of Windows tablet. A couple of million units sold sounds okay, but hardly the sort of smash hit we've come to expect from Apple. A precipitous decline in sales after just a couple of months? Not a good sign.
Will the Apple Watch recover, and sell 100 million units in two years, like the iPad, or three years, like the iPhone? There's still time—but not at these rates. (Which, to be fair, are projections based on email receipts hoovered up by Slice, not from Apple itself.) Even with generous rounding errors, the Watch has failed to become the status quo object in wearables. And for Apple, that's a flop.
So how did this happen? The answer may sound like heresy to those who canonize—or even merely admire—Apple's designers. What if the Apple Watch, for all its its milled and woven metals, all its appearances on the catwalk, isn't actually all that well-designed? So far, the Apple Watch doesn't seem very useful, and it hasn't proven that fashionable.
It Just Doesn't Work That Well
Early reviews were filled with tentative criticism, and convoluted explanations about why you might want an Apple Watch in the first place. The New York Times needed "three long, often confusing and frustrating days" to learn how to use it. Others pointed to poor technical performance and a lack of meaningful apps. Many reviews contained the caveat, "it's not for everyone..." One influential review by TechCrunch pointed to what became a rallying cry for the Apple Watch's utility: the time saved by using a screen at a glance—as if teens and grandmas everywhere would relish the option to spend $500 to save the equivalent a few seconds each day. (Seconds that, more often than not, are consumed by a watch alert instructing its wearer to check their phone.)
Major developers complained to us before release that Apple had constrained Watch functions too tightly to create rich, meaningful experiences. Presumably to preserve the Watch's limited battery life, apps ran on the iPhone, the sensors and Taptic Engine were off-limits, and many graphical elements had to be streamed to the Watch instead of being generated natively. Apple has since released a new SDK to remedy some of these limitations, which will certainly improve the app experience, however un-killer they all, so far, have been.
From a user-experience standpoint, it's unclear that Apple ever figured out how people were really supposed to interact with the Watch. Consider that it contains four different types of notifications: a "glance," a short look notification, a long look notification, and another style of notification that pops up only inside a digital watchface. Sometimes they'll have the information you need. Sometimes they'll prompt you to open an app on your iPhone. Never do they indicate that Apple figured out one perfect way to use a tool of their own invention. And despite having three different types of touch interface—basic touch-screen interaction, Force Touch, and the Digital Crown—the watch still leans heavily on Siri, Apple's voice recognition agent, who remains fairly dense and hard of hearing.
It's Not That Fashionable
Where did your Apple Watch go, Drake?
What about yours, Karl Lagerfeld? Is it hiding under those cuffs?
Say it ain't so, Bey!
Though at least Beyoncé, who made headlines for wearing her gold-band Apple Watch Edition (backwards, by the way; in what, let's all be honest, must be an under-the-table sponsorship we'll read about in a memoir 40 years from now), still Instagrams in it every once in a while.
You can view this in two ways, and neither bodes well for the Watch. Waning celebrity support could mark a cooling cool factor. Not because there's anything wrong with the Watch, but because Apple is not immune to fashion's whim -- and fashion's whim is a lot faster than your two-year iPhone upgrade cycle.. Maybe the Apple Watch had a moment of limelight, but now seems, if not tacky, at least pedestrian.
And let's ignore the challenge of auguring Yoncé's daily technology and fashion choices solely from images on a highly curated Instagram feed. So she doesn't wear the same watch every day; she's a fashionista who changes her look on a daily basis. When doesshe wear it?
A nice watch for a normal, non-celebrity fits somewhere between a wedding ring and your go-to black leather shoes. You'll wear it a lot, but not all the time.
But the Apple Watch isn't just another piece of jewelry. If you don't wear a Rolex every day, it's not a big deal. If you don't wear an Apple Watch every day, how is it ever going to become an integral part of how you pay for things, identify yourself, and check your emails? For the Apple Watch to replace the functionality of our phones, even in part, it has to be worn all the time. And it's looking like—at least according to my highly scientific celebrity Instagram analysis, cross-indexed with the upturned noses of many of my otherwise perfectly gadget-prone friends—Apple Watch just doesn't fit into every context. (And we're talking about gifted $17,000+ version here, which at least brings the cachet of excess. The entry-level models may be more innocuous, but they're still smartwatches, and smartwatches are still Segways for your wrist.)
Apple Is Still Thinking In ID, Not User Experience
All of this culminates to the Apple Watch's fundamental flaw: it's a myopic masterpiece of industrial design, with microchips under curved glass held firm by Velcro-elegant magnetic clasps, so focused on fit and finish that it forgot about the software experience. And it's the software experience that, ironically, could solve the disappointing UX, along with the stale problem of wearing the same old watch every day.
Look at the Apple Watch page and you'll see the pornographic macros of the digital crown and woven metal band; yet ultimately, the Apple Watch hardware you purchase has just one look. Software barely shapes its aesthetic. Apple hasn't even opened up digital watch faces to third party developers, and even if they do, they won't stop the watch hardware from looking like a dead screen that's too afraid to fire up its own battery, lest it die.
The Apple Watch is flopping because it's very well executed, but not very well designed. In terms of utility, it's hard to use, and not solving meaningful problems. In terms of fashion, it's a piece of technology that inherently falls short of timelessness, and yet doesn't keep up with fast fashion, either.
I'm not sure that the Apple Watch needs to rectify all of these problems to be a monster hit, but it certainly needs to solve one of them. Until then, the Apple Watch still "isn't for everyone." And apparently not as many someones as had been expected.
COMMENTARY: Apple hasn't revealed specific sales figures for the Apple Watch since its launch in April.
However, analytics firm Slice Intelligence has pulled together some data that claims to give us an idea of what sales have been like over the past few months.
And it doesn't look good.
Slice Intelligence shared a chart with Business Insider that shows how sales have progressed day-by-day from mid-April through the beginning of July.
On April 13, Apple was selling about 35,000 watches per day, according to Slice. But that number has dipped significantly since then. On July 2, Apple sold more than 5,000 Apple Watches per day, the chart indicates.
It seems as if there's been a steady decline in day-by-day sales except for a few noticeable spikes, such as one on June 2, which you'll notice in the chart below.
Slice Intelligence bases these numbers on e-receipt data it received from its panel of 2.5 million online shoppers in the U.S.
The data may not be perfect, but it backs up what some Wall Street analysts have previously said about the Apple Watch. In a note to clients, Andy Hargreaves from Pacific Crest wrote:
"Store visits, Google search volume, third-party data and recent supply checks all suggest demand for Apple Watch has fallen sharply from initial levels."
Apple has remained quiet when it comes to sales numbers for the Apple Watch. It didn't issue a press release to announce opening weekend sales like it does with the iPhone, but Slice Intelligence previously estimated that there were 1 million orders for the Apple Watch in its first weekend on the market.
When Re/code's Walt Mossberg asked Apple's Jeff Williams how many watches have been sold, Williams replied:
"A lot, but not enough. The only number I’ll give you is that demand divided by supply is greater than one, and so that’s all I’ve got for you, Walt. It’s a lot."
Apple declined to provide comment for this story.
The list of celebrities sporting the wrist piece isn’t extensive but is lengthening. Pharrell (rapper), Katy Perry (singer), Drake (singer), Christy Turlington (fashion model), Dmitry Medvedev (Russian Prime Minister), Karl Lagerfeld (fashion designer), ( Liberty Ross (actress), Beyonce (singer), Kid Kuni (rapper), Frank Ocean (rapper) Tom Brady (pro athlete), David Beckham ((pro athlete), Robert Murdoch (media mogul), Sophie Turner (actress), J.J. Abrams (film director), Simon Pegg (actor), Will Carling (actor), Sam Smith (singer), Anna Wintour (Vogue Editor) are amongst the top names. Keep in mind that Apple executives gave away numerous Apple Watches to celebrities to create marketing hype and word-of-mouth.
Reactions to the Apple Watch from the fashion industry have been mostly mixed to negative. Here are a few responses from fashion designers who were asked if they would buy an Apple Watch, whether they considered a tech gadget or fashion item and if they would integrate wearable technology into their business.
- Robert Geller - "Not yet. Just like I did with the IPad, I don't see the need. Now I own 2 IPads. Let's see. I think that the integration of tech and fashion has not been very successful. It always ends up being very gadget-y. "
- Ryan Babenzien - "I haven't ordered one. I'm not entirely sold on the idea just yet since you need your phone with you to make the watch function in a real way. Carrying a device to make another one work to it's full capacity seems like a hassle to me. I'm going to wait and see how this might enhance one's life for the better and if it does, I'll get one. It's got to offer function first and enhance my life. I think there are some interesting applications for the Apple Watch at the retail level that we at Greats are keen to see happen."
- Josh Cooper and Laurence Chandler - "Nope, with a growing design schedule and constant travel, we find ourselves looking at ways to disconnect, rather than being connected even more. We created a 3M infused "Paparazzi Blocker" for Cara Delevingne after having a conversation on ways to throw off photogs. This has led to a lot of brands running with this idea. We were approached by 3M and are pushing them for alternative materials that don't need a flash to expand on this idea. We've had tech companies approach us about using their tech and our design but have been in no rush to do anything that feels forced. There's potential but I don't think we're The Jetsons just yet."
- Kerby Jean-Raymond - "Hell no. I’m desperately trying to unplug. The last thing I want is a watch that connects to my phone which connects to my iPad that connects to my computer that airplays to my TV. It’s a gadget right now. I’ll see style value in it once brands and jewelers start making cool wristbands and straps for it. I still won’t get one."
- Shimon Ovadia - "No I did not. We're already so connected with our computers and phones throughout the day. Although the watch looks cool and the technology is impressive and ground-breaking these days I'm personally more interested in disconnecting a little more. Apple is so great with their branding and marketing that the products appeal to both the tech geeks and someone who just wants to say they have the latest hot gadget. I think you'll see both of those types of people wearing it."
- Jason Geter - "No, I didn't pre order the Apple watch, although I'm sure I'll get one at some point. I certainly see it as more of a tech gadget versus style. I've worn classic watches such as Rolexes, Grahams, Audemars, etc. For quite some time. But, I can see rocking the Apple watch on certain days, during travel or on vacation."
- Scott Sasso - "No. Not really. I'm trying to reduce the tech in my life right now. It's a tech gadget. Maybe one day it—or something like it—will become a style accessory, but it's too soon to call it a style accessory. We don't even know if the thing is useful yet, to know if it will be adapted widely enough to become a style accessory. I don't know of anyone who has one yet."
As for myself: I always thought that the Apple Watch did not fill a real need in the marketplace. At best the new Apple time piece is a "nice to have," but not a "must have" purchase. From a design standpoint, the Apple Watch is not a "cool" device like the iPod, iPhone or iPad were when they first came out. It fails to make a fashion statement. It's too bulky and plain looking. No pizzazz or glitz. Boring. Over-priced and does not deliver an out-of-this world customer experience at its price points. There are already too many wearables offering similar features at half the price. The fashion designers agree with me. It is not the type of device that Steve Jobs said Apple customers would "lust for." In fact, I think that Steve would've designed something completely different or not done it. I think that it's too complicated to use. This violates Steve Jobs rule of simplicity in design. It requires that you already have an iPhone. This kills the customer experience. The Apple Watch should stand on its own. It's more of an accessory to the iPhone.
Courtesy of an article dated July 12, 2015 appearing in Engadget, an article dated July 6, 2015 appearing in TechRadar, an article dated July 7, 2015 appearing in Business Insider, an article dated April 20, 2015 appearing in Forbes, an article dated March 9, 2015 appearing in Vox Technology, an article dated April 24, 2015 appearing in Complex Style, and an article dated June 1, 2015 appearing in Business Insider
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