According to a report set for release today from BIA/Kelsey, spending on paid social media advertising will increase from $4.6 billion in 2012 to $9.2 billion in 2016.
Particularly interesting is the researcher's prediction that "native" ads running on social media sites—contextual promotions that are baked into sites either via news feeds (e.g., Promoted Tweets) or in a more customized fashion—will total $1.53 billion this year while growing to $3.85 billion in 2016.
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During that time, BIA/Kelsey prognosticates, social display ads will grow slightly slower, lifting from $3 billion to $5.4 billion. It's the first time the 25-year-old company has broken out social native versus social display spend.
By 2016, BIA/Kelsey predicts, local social will nearly triple to $2.95 billion compared to $1.1 billion in 2012. BIA/Kelsey also reports that national social media will nearly double to $6.26 billion compared to $3.47 billion in 2012.
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Desktop-based social ads will account for $4 billion this year, while reaching $7.7 billion in 2016, BIA/Kelsey projects. Mobile-based social ads will total just over a half-billion dollars this year before reaching $1.47 billion in 2016.
In other words, expect the temperature of the already-heated debate about whether social ads work to increase. And expect platforms and vendors to scramble for the dollars. Possible beneficiaries include the obvious in Facebook and Twitter, but also could entail emerging social platforms like Tumblr, Pinterest, Foursquare and Reddit.
Meanwhile, per BIA/Kelsey, general local media spend will grow from $134.6 billion this year to $147.1 billion by 2016.
COMMENTARY: It should be noted that in a blog post dated May 16, 2012, BIA/Kelsey forecasted that U.S. soial media advertising would reach $9.8 billion by 2016. In their most recent report, BIA/Kelsey has reduced U.S. social media ads from $9.8 billion to $9.2 billion by 2016. That's a 6% drop if you do the math.
Courtesy of an article dated November 26, 2012 appearing in AdWeek and BIA/Kelsey's press release of November 26, 2012
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