Dexterous robots that can assemble high-tech electronics finally begin to come of age
When Apple comes home—and it will happen sooner than anyone, even Apple, would ever imagine—we’ll need to thank the triumvirate of rising wages overseas, automation and robots, especially robots.
Rising wages and automation alone might make Apple move to India or Africa, but not re-shore itself stateside. The robot, however, holds the automation key.
It takes five days and 325 steps to assemble an IPad
The 325 steps and five assembly days needed to bring an iPad to life are in the hands of 300,000 Chinese workers at Foxconn’s Longhua factory. It’s those 300,000 pairs of assembly hands that robots will replace.
Jamie Wang, a Taipei-based analyst for the research firm Gartner, sees lots of human hands going over to robots. A robot can be operated non-stop 160 hours a week, which would easily replace two to four workers. Such highly structured and predictable tasks are well suited to automation, he says.
However, Wang stresses that such automation requires lots of infrastructure work just to get ready to install the robots. For Foxconn, it’ll be awhile, even if Terry Guo, chairman of Taiwan’s Hon Hai, still believes that his firm’s Foxconn division will soon have a million robots ready to take over. In fact, Gou may be waiting for a very long time for reasons that have nothing to do with technology.
Maintaining a harmonious society
David Wolf, a Beijing-based strategic communications and IT analyst, thinks he knows what may hold up robot adoption in many Chinese factories: worker harmony. He says.
“With the Chinese economy slowing down, it is politically inadvisable to talk too much about replacing people with robots.”
Creating jobs is many times more important for China than a great leap forward in efficiency. Wang Mengshu, deputy chief engineer at China Railway Tunnel Group, says that labor-saving equipment isn’t always used even when it’s available. He says.
“If all the new tunnels were built with the advanced equipment, that would trim the need for the employment of about six million migrant workers. In certain fields we don’t want to have fast development in China, in order to solve the national employment problem.”
Harmony is the key. Mao Zedong promised his people freedom from foreign subjugation, the end of famine, universal education and jobs. He delivered on all of them, which the reigning Politburo won’t destabilize. No one wants Mengshu’s six million migrant workers howling about their pink slips.
The coming age of dexterous robots
With the U.S. as efficient as China, but doing it with 10% of China’s workforce, a window of opportunity is open for the U.S. to automate with robots, re-shore manufacturing and still make heady profits.
When Apple comes home it’ll be greeted by dexterous robots capable of assembling electronics. ABB’s Frida (see video below) and others of her ilk are great recent advances but are still bumblers when it comes to assembling small- and micro-scale electronic devices. However, the way forward—one that’s very nearby—shimmers in Frida’s reflection.
Vivek Wadhwa, writing in a recent article in Forbes, sees it all near at hand and ready to spring.
“Even if the Chinese automate their factories with AI-powered robots and manufacture 3D printers, it will no longer make sense to ship raw materials all the way to China to have them assembled into finished products and shipped back to the U.S. Manufacturing will once again become a local industry with products being manufactured near raw materials or markets.”
All thanks to legions of dexterous robots.
A treasure trove for the parts industry
There’s a gold mine there for millions of U.S jobs as well. During the five days and 325 steps that go into assembling an iPad, hundreds of parts are pushed into each iPad skeleton. For example, Samsung will sell Apple $12B in iPad parts in 2012. In addition, the workers wearing surgical masks at Foxconn also install parts from NAND, Toshiba, Elpida, Avago Technologies, Triquint Semiconductor, Fairchild, Qualcomm, Broadcom, ARM Holding, and LG Electronics. Some or all of these suppliers might also pack up their robots and move a bit closer to Apple’s U.S. manufacturing facilities.
Robots seem to be doing what the combined brainpower and political clout of the entire U.S Congress and two Presidents couldn’t do for America, namely, create jobs and initiate the greatest repatriation of manufacturing back to the U.S. in the country’s history.
Of course, many will not take such a re-shoring to America without their own plan to profit from such an exodus. The Financial Times sent their Sarah Mishkin to speak with engineers in Taipei who are trying to develop a new breed of robot that can handle the intricate operations of manufacturing high tech-products. Her video report:
COMMENTARY: U.S. manufacturing is finally beginning to come home. GE, Boeing, Caterpillar, Ford, Master Lock and Coleman have moved operations back to domestic factories over the last two years, and more could join the trend.
One of the key reasons why U.S. manufacturers are returning home from China and other Far East countries is the robot. A nimbler, smarter, modular, multi-tasking-capable generation of robots is on the rise and learning to do all sorts of new tricks principally in manufacturing and supply chains.
Robots are even getting quite adept at toiling side-by-side with their human makers, which has catapulted their kind from the obscurity of punching out automobiles and working in foundries to all sorts of human-robot interaction (HRI). Many of the new capabilities were on display at this year’s AUTOMATICA tradeshow in Munich, Germany, but even there only the tip of the iceberg of new- and next-gen robotics was exhibited.
Of course, the robot has lots of help on its side. China’s GDP is expected to grow just over 8% this year, which is the slowest growth China has seen in years. A report from the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), Made in America, Again: Why Manufacturing Will Return to the U.S., cites other mitigating factors like higher Chinese factory wages, soaring electricity costs, the increasing need to provide goods to a rising Chinese middle class, and the constraints of U.S. firms trying to coordinate operations thousands of miles from home. The report predicts that by 2015 certain kinds of production will be just as cheap in the U.S. as in China (cited were car parts, construction equipment and appliances).
U.S. Industrial Robotics Boom
According to new statistics released by the Robotic Industries Association (RIA), North American robotics companies sold more industrial robots in the second quarter of 2012 than any previous quarter in history.
- Q2 2012 vs Q2 2011 - A total of 5,556 robots valued at $403.1 million were sold to North American companies, a jump of 14% in units and 28% in dollars over the same quarter in 2011.
- YTD Q2 2012 vs YTD Q2 2011 - Orders in the first half of 2012 totaled 10,652 robots valued at $747 million, increases of 20% in units and 29% in dollars over the same period last year.
Jeff Burnstein, President of RIA says.
“Obviously, we’re thrilled about the great results so far this year. The strong sales reflect increased demand for robotics in industries such as automotive, plastics & rubber, and metals. However, as the economy slows, it’s not clear that these numbers will remain as strong heading forward.”
Industrial robotic orders by industry category were as follows:
- Spot welding robots - used primarily in automotive solutions, jumped 68% in the first half of 2012.
- Coating & dispensing - (+42%),
- Arc welding - (+20%),
- Assembly - (+19%).
- Material removal orders - A smaller application area, rose 364 percent.
Automotive related orders accounted for 65% of units and 64% of dollars in the first half of 2012. This represents sharp gains of 44% in units and 56% in dollars over the opening half of 2011.
Burnstein explained.
“It’s great that the auto related numbers continue to post huge gains, but as we know, automotive industry purchases are cyclical. However, we were disappointed to see non-automotive related orders fall eight percent in units and one percent in dollars in the first half of the year, with even sharper declines in the second quarter alone.”
RIA estimates that some 220,000 robots are now used in the United States, placing the US second only to Japan in robot use.
China Takes The Lead in Worldwide Industrial Robots
According to the International Federation of Robotics (IFR), there will be an estimated 1.3 million industrial robots installed worldwide by the end of 2012. Asian countries, led by China, will have an estimated 575,000 industrial robots installed by the end of 2012. Asian countries are expected to continue to lead in the total number of industrial robots installed, reaching 700,000 industrial robots installed by the end of 2014.
Foxconn International To Install One Million Industrial Robots
In a blog post dated October 15, 2011, Foxconn International, the exclusive Chinese manufacturer of Apple's iPhone and iPad, facing higher labor costs, overtime, worker lawsuits, and possible unionization, announced that it plans to install one million industrial robots by 2014. Foxconn plans on installing 300,000 industrial robots by the end of 2012.
If Hon Hai Precision, the parent of Foxconn International, goes through with its plan to install one million industrial robots, it is doing so in order to keep the Apple account over there and improve its profit margins, which have been cut paper thin by Apple's constant and brutal demands for lower prices to produce the iPhone and iPad. In a blog post dated January 31, 2012, I commented on Hon Hai Precision's profit margins when compared to Apple (see below graph).
For the above reasons, I really question the wisdom of Apple transferring production of its magical devices from China or other Asian countries because Apple has it pretty good overseas. For its part, Apple has been severely criticized for looking the other way or completely disregarding the industrial pollution on a massive scale, that its Chinese vendors have caused in China. Apple was subsequently pressured to force its Chinese vendors to implement stringent pollution prevention measures. If it were to transfer this production to the U.S. it would be required to comply with even tougher pollution prevention regulations, and I don't think it is willing to do this. Apple would also be hit with some pretty hefty plant and equipment capital expenditures. Furthermore, Apple has $40 billion in cash deposited in foreign banks, which are free of U.S. income taxes, and it would lose part of that tax benefit by moving jobs back to the U.S. Not going to happen. Tim Cook is too smart. Apple's profits and stockholders come first over people and U.S. jobs. There I said it. Sue me if you disagree.
Courtesy of an article dated August 11, 2012 appearing in Robotics Business Review and an article dated June 10, 2012 appearing in Robotics Business Review and an article dated July 26, 2012 appearing in Robotics Industry Association
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