A new forecast suggests Microsoft’s Windows Phone will gain momentum in the coming years, edging out iOS to become the second-most-popular smartphone operating system behind Google’s Android by 2016. That would mark a dramatic reversal of fortune for the Microsoft platform, which currently has only a fraction of the smartphone market.
Technology research firm IDC predicts Windows Phone will jump from a 5% share of global smartphone shipments in 2012 to 19.2% in four years fueled by 46% annual growth. By contrast, IDC projects Android’s runaway growth will slow to 9.5% annually, and iOS’ to 11%. Android will remain the top smartphone OS, but its share will decrease from a peak 61% this year to 53% in 2016, while iOS holds roughly steady, from 20.5% to 19%.
Worldwide Smartphone Operating System 2012 and 2016 Market Share and 2012-2016 Compound Annual Growth Rate
|
Smartphone OS |
2012 Market Share |
2016 Market Share |
2012 - 2016 CAGR |
|
Android |
61.0% |
52.9% |
9.5% |
|
Windows Phone 7/Windows Mobile |
5.2% |
19.2% |
46.2% |
|
iOS |
20.5% |
19.0% |
10.9% |
|
BlackBerry OS |
6.0% |
5.9% |
12.1% |
|
Others |
7.2% |
3.0% |
-5.4% |
|
Total |
100.0% |
100.0% |
12.7% |
Source: IDC Worldwide Mobile Phone Tracker, June 6, 2012
The same is true for BlackBerry, whose share will remain at about 6% through 2016, supported by demand for affordable messaging devices in emerging markets. Symbian -- only a few years ago the leading smartphone platform -- will all but disappear by 2014 as a result of Nokia’s switch from that Symbian to Windows Phone as the primary OS for its phones.
Ramon Llamas, a senior mobile analyst at IDC said.
“What remains to be seen is how these different operating systems -- as well as others -- will define and shape the user experience beyond what we see today in order to attract new customers.”
The firm projects overall mobile phone shipments this year will slip to 1.7 billion from 1.8 billion in 2010 as a result of sluggish global economic conditions and slowing feature phone sales. The 10% drop in regular phone shipments in 2012 will be offset by a 38.8% increase in smartphone shipments to 686 million units.
Falling average selling prices and component costs, subsidized by carriers, and lower-cost data plans are putting smartphones within reach of more people worldwide.
Feature phones, however, will still account for 61.6% of mobile phone shipments in 2012. And IDC forecasts 2.3 billion phones overall will be shipped by the end of 2016.
COMMENTARY:
Microsoft Windows Phone Sales for 2012
What’s happening with Windows Phone sales? Not much, to be honest, and certainly not as much as had been anticipated after the Windows Phone 7.5 debuted in August 2011. It's expected that by the end of 2012, Windows Phone could eke out a 10 percent market share and surpass BlackBerry. It’s still possible, but it’s going to take a massive effort. And Microsoft isn’t heading in the right direction: As of last month, its share of smartphone sales had declined over the prior 12 months.
Research firm Gartner notes that Windows Phone and Windows Mobile combined held only 1.9 percent of the market in the first quarter of 2012, down from 2.6 percent a year ago. There have been some recent reports that Microsoft is doing well in China—better than iOS, with a 7 percent share—but one has to be skeptical: Windows Phone devices were just launched in China earlier this year, while the iPhone has been sold on multiple carriers there for some time. And as much as reviewers like the usability of Windows Phone, not many people have been seen with a Microsoft Windows phone.
There are many more consumers buying smartphones now than there were in 2008. That’s evidenced by the Windows Phone market share; as noted above, it lost share, but in terms of sales, it actually rose from 2.5 to 2.7 million units for Microsoft in the first quarter. The whole market is rising and gaining users, so you can’t meaningfully compare app growth rates in 2012 to those in 2008.
Microsoft Windows Phone Apps Hit Milestone
Microsoft surpassed 100,000 apps for its Windows Phone mobile platform. The figure comes from All About Windows Phone, which tracks app data and has a treasure trove of detailed information about the software, ranging from price points to countries with the most apps available.
While the app catalog is growing, software for Windows Phone doesn’t seem to be boosting sales as much as software did for Android and iOS devices.
Apps are important, but there’s more to a phone than apps. Here’s the funny thing and part of the reason the number of apps really means little, or not as much as it used to. Guess where the most apps are available for Windows Phone devices? According to the data, the U.S. leads the way, with 77,450 of the 100,000 available. Going back to the China example, where the phone is allegedly doing well: 33,063 apps are available to Windows Phones in China. Something doesn’t add up.
Actually, the app numbers do make sense, but they have less relevance to actual sales than they used to. As long as the top-tier titles are available for a platform, most users ought to be happy. And more of those titles are appearing on the Windows Phone. But—and this is key—few, if any, are launching first on Windows Phone, which suggests developers don’t see the platform as the best place to introduce their wares.
Microsoft simply hasn’t given developers—or many consumers, for that matter—a compelling reason to opt for Windows Phone over Android or iOS. It’s not the apps; it’s a question of what Windows Phone can do for consumers and for developers already invested in Android or iOS. (As an interesting side note, 67 percent of Windows Phone apps are free.). Xbox Live ought to help, and so too will Windows 8, which shares the Metro interface, so there’s hope yet.
App growth means less today than it did four years ago. A closely watched metric for apps stores of late is the growth rate, but I counter that it’s far less relevant now. In 2008, when Apple launched the iTunes App Store, soon to be followed by the Android Market (now Google Play), such growth was important for two reasons. One: Smartphones running platform-specific apps were a new concept for mainstream consumers. And two: The starting point was zero.
That sounds obvious, and yet today we keep hearing how a service is growing faster than Facebook or Twitter did. So too with the app store. As All About Windows Phone says,
“Windows Phone reached the 100,000 milestone faster than Android (24 months), but slower than iOS (16 months).”
It’s not over yet for Windows Phone: Here’s what to watch for. Clearly, Microsoft is in this for the long haul, and although smartphone sales have boomed over the past few years, only one-fifth of the world’s population owns a smartphone. So there’s time yet. Instead of apps, which are of course important, the maturity of Microsoft’s mobile platform and supporting ecosystem are more important factors to watch than the total number of apps available for Windows Phone.
Later this month, Microsoft will give a sneak peek at the next version of Windows Phone, code-named “Apollo.” And earlier this week at the E3 gaming conference, Microsoft announced SmartGlass, a new way to share Xbox media content with smartphones, tablets, and Windows 8 computers. Perhaps with these new developments, Microsoft will finally give more consumers an answer to the question, “Why should I buy a Windows Phone over Android or iOS?”
The Nokia Lumia Series Windows Phone
Windows Phone is Microsoft's entrant into the smartphone wars, and it has won widespread critical acclaim (though not many users).
In a blog post dated August 11, 2011, I wrote about the partnership between Nokia and Microsoft to produce phones running Microsoft's Windows 7 OS (since upgraded into Windows 7.5 OS and 8.0). Like Android, Windows 8.0 OS is available on smartphones from several different manufacturers, most notably Nokia, with its Lumia series phones: 710, 800 and 900 series which became available through AT&T beginning in April 2012. The Lumia 900 (see below) phone is shown below.
Nokia Lumia 900 smartphone images, including a side-by-side comparison of the footprint of the Nokia Lumia 900 versus the Apple iPhone 4 (Click Images To Enlarge)
Microsoft's Windows Phone is a hit with the critics, but should you consider buying one? Let's look at its advantages and disadvantages:
STRENGTHS
- Beautiful AND Fresh: It's arguable whose design is more beautiful: Windows Phone, with its large, square "live tiles," or Apple's iPhone, with its iconic rows of apps. Not arguable is that Windows Phone's Metro interface is newer and fresher than Apple's. Fashionistas and hipsters take notice: Microsoft(!) has the hottest design in smartphones today. Scrolling up, down, left and right is exceptionally satisfying and smooth.
- Simple To Use: Windows Phone comes with two screens total: One is your "live tiles," or your customizable home screen, and the other is an alphabetical list of all of your apps. It is the easiest smartphone operating system there is; it's even more intuitive than Apple's.
- Physical Camera Button: Microsoft has mandated that all smartphones running Windows Phone must come with a physical camera button somewhere on the device. That button also allows you to focus without touching the screen. It's a much more intuitive and natural photography experience than is offered by the iPhone and Android smartphones, which do not have camera buttons.
- All Conversations In One Place: Windows Phone does a neat thing with your messages, automatically grouping each conversation in one window, regardless of where the convo is taking place. So, if I'm talking to Bianca, I can text her, then message her on Facebook, then on MSN Messenger, and it all shows up in the same place -- no need to switch apps even if your conversation partner does.
- Keyboard/Editing Text: Windows Phone has an elegant solution for editing typo's or inserting a new word: Press your finger against the screen, a cursor like you would see in MS Word pops up. This makes it much easier to control editing documents, text messages and emails. Like Android, the autocorrect feature is a row of suggested words:
- Hotmail/Microsoft Word/SkyDrive Integration: Hotmail and MSN are easily accessed and manipulated by Windows Phone, as are the various applications in the Microsoft Office package (Excel, PowerPoint, OneNote, Word). Users who store data and media on Microsoft's burgeoning cloud storage app, SkyDrive (which we really like), will also find excellent integration on Windows Phone devices.
WEAKNESSES
- Mediocre App/Game Selection: Facebook, Twitter and Foursquare are beautiful on Windows Phone, but once you get past the major apps, the Windows Marketplace looks pretty barren. That's not a problem if you're only after the biggest applications, but if you want a deeper pool of utilities and games to choose from, you're better off with iPhone or Android. (To quantify: Windows Phone has about 100,000 apps; Android, 500,000; iPhone, 600,000). We've also seen major apps launch on Android and iPhone before they do on Windows Phone; WP users are still waiting for Angry Birds: Space, for example.
- Google, Where Art Thou?: The integration with Gmail is pretty bad; I especially miss the ability to archive emails with one press of a button. Gchat support is weak. Bing Search and Bing Maps don't stand up to Google Search and Google Maps in the discovery department; searching for shops near you by category is surprisingly hit-or-miss. Navigation is still much better than on iPhone, however.
- What Are These Icons?: The MS OS is easy to use, but little icons, without text to explain what they are, are confusing for a first-time user. These are all over Windows Phone. Here's a mystifying example -- Windows Phone is on the left and Android is on the right:
- Where's The Voice-To-Text?: Windows Phone is the only OS out of the big three that doesn't have speech-to-text integrated across the whole system. That is, on iPhone and Android, the keyboard features a microphone button so that you can say what you want to type on the screen. Though Windows Phone comes with some voice features -- you can launch apps and text messages and search Bing -- you can't use your voice to type, which has always been what I've used microphones for the most on my smartphone.
CLARIFICATION: You CAN dictate text messages, either by long-pressing the Windows button or using the Speaker icon on the text message screen. What I want to see is that Speaker icon available anywhere you can input text: on emails, in search, on maps, etc., for faster input of text via speech.
Zune Software Needed: In order to update your phone's operating system, you need to download a Zune application for your desktop and connect your phone via cord. Android and iOS both come with wireless updating.
SO, WHO SHOULD BUY A WINDOWS PHONE?
First: Windows Phone is the best operating system for a smartphone newbie, someone who wants a simple smartphone that is easy to use and that can make calls, check email and surf the Internet. This person doesn't download a lot of apps or need to customize his or her phone or unlock it or anything: He or she just wants the basics of the smartphone in a beautiful, simple package. That's the meat-and-potatoes Windows Phone market, the shoppers who should most seriously be looking at Windows Phones.
Others who should be looking at Windows Phone include those with Hotmail accounts and those who do lots of work with Microsoft software. Those who value strong, clean design and hipness in their gadgets might also consider Windows Phone.
It's still difficult, however, for me to recommend Windows Phone over Android or iOS. This might change in a year, but right now the iPhone and especially Android just offer a far more robust, complete set of features and applications for buyers. Windows Phone -- despite its splendid aesthetics and smooth operation -- feels about a year away from being truly on level with Android and iPhone for a heavy smartphone user.
That said, if you're a casual phone user, and you don't think you'll be using your smartphone for much more than Internet surfing, email and checking your social networks, Windows Phone is a solid, fast and beautiful choice that won't disappoint.
I tend to agree with the IDC's predictions. I don't care what Apple evangelists think of their cool Apple mobile devices. It's a Windows World out there, and Microsoft is the logical choice to capitalize on the smartphone craze. Working with Nokia gives them a great opportunity to test their Windows mobile OS 8 operating system. I fully expect that Windows OS 8, and future versions of the OS, to become the mobile phone standard OS. Again, I will say this one more time: It's a Windows World out there.
Courtesy of an article dated June 6, 2012 appearing in MediaPost Publications Online Media Daily and an article dated June 14, 2012 appearing in The Huttington Post
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