Asteroid 2005 YU55 to Approach Earth on November 8, 2011
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
- Near Earth Object Program
- Don Yeomans, Lance Benner and Jon Giorgini
- March 10, 2011
City University of New York professor of physics Dr. Michio Kaku appeared on Fox News and says that asteroid 2005 YU55 represents the "first major threat" faced by Earth from a meteriod or asteroid, but there is only a small chance that it will actually hit us on this first pass.
Asteroid 2005 YU55 comes around for a "second pass" of Earth on Friday, April 13, 2036, and that's the date that worries scientists and astronomers the most, because it could come close enough to actually impact earth. If it were to impact with Earth, Dr. Kaku describes it as a "Nation Buster". Dr. Kaku says,
"It'll take out Germany, it'll take out France, England or the entire northeast of the United States. It will hit with a force of 100,000 Hiroshima bombs. It's a catastrophe beyond human comprehension"
The effects of an impact of asteroid 2005 YU55 with the Earth would shower our planet with molten rock and burning debris reaching out for a radius of 1,000 miles from the point of impact.
Near-Earth asteroid 2005 YU55 will pass within 0.85 lunar distances from the Earth on November 8, 2011. The upcoming close approach by this relatively large 400 meter-sized, C-type asteroid presents an excellent opportunity for synergistic ground-based observations including optical, near infrared and radar data. The attached animated illustration shows the Earth and moon flyby geometry for November 8th and 9th when the object will reach a visual brightness of 11th magnitude and should be easily visible to observers in the northern and southern hemispheres. The closest approach to Earth and the Moon will be respectively 0.00217 AU and 0.00160 AU on 2011 November 8 at 23:28 and November 9 at 07:13 UT.
[Click Image To Enlarge]
Discovered December 28, 2005 by Robert McMillan of the Spacewatch Program near Tucson Arizona, the object has been previously observed by Mike Nolan, Ellen Howell and colleagues with the Arecibo radar on April 19-21, 2010 and shown to be a very dark, nearly spherical object 400 meters in diameter. Because of its approximate 20-hour rotation period, ideal radar observations should include tracks that are 8 hours or longer on multiple dates at Goldstone (November 3-11) and when the object enters Arecibo's observing window on November 8th.
Using the Goldstone radar operating in a relatively new "chirp" mode, the November 2011 radar opportunity could result in a shape model reconstruction with a resolution of as fine as 4 meters. Several days of high resolution imaging (about 7.5 meters) are also planned at Arecibo. As well as aiding the interpretation of the radar observations, collaborative visual and near infrared observations could define the object's rotation characteristics and provide constraints upon the nature of the object's surface roughness and mineral composition.
Since the asteroid will approach the Earth from the sunward direction, it will be a daylight object until the time of closest approach. The best time for new ground-based optical and infrared observations will be late in the day on November 8, after 21:00 hours UT from the eastern Atlantic and western Africa zone. A few hours after its close Earth approach, it will become generally accessible for optical and near-IR observations but will provide a challenging target because of its rapid motion across the sky.
[Click Image To Enlarge]
April 29, 2010
Near-Earth asteroid 2005 YU55 was "imaged" by the Arecibo Radar Telescope in Puerto Rico on April 19. Data collected during Arecibo's observation of 2005 YU55 allowed the Near-Earth Object Program Office at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory to refine the space rock's orbit, allowing scientists to rule out any possibility of an Earth impact for the next 100 years.
[Click Image To Enlarge]
The space rock was about 2.3 million kilometers (1.5 million miles) from Earth at the time this image of the radar echo was generated. The ghostly image has a resolution of 7.5 meters (25 feet) per pixel. It reveals 2005 YU55 as a spherical object about 400 meters (1,300 feet) in size.
Not only can the radar provide data on an asteroid's dimensions, but also on its exact location in space. Using Arecibo's high-precision radar astrometry capability, scientists were able to reduce orbit uncertainties for YU55 by 50 percent.
Steve Chesley, a scientist at JPL's Near-Earth Object Program Office said.
"At one time we had classified 2005 YU55 as a potential threat," Prior to the Arecibo radar passes on April 19 thru 21, we had eliminated almost all upcoming Earth flybys as possibilities of impact. But there were a few that had a low remaining probability of impact. After incorporating the data from Arecibo, we were able to rule impacts out entirely for the next 100 years."
With more observations in the coming years, scientists may be able to accurately plot 2005 YU55's orbit even further out.
NASA detects, tracks and characterizes asteroids and comets passing close to Earth using both ground- and space-based telescopes. The Near-Earth Object Observations Program, commonly called "Spaceguard," discovers these objects, characterizes a subset of them, and plots their orbits to determine if any could be potentially hazardous to our planet.
JPL manages the Near-Earth Object Program Office for NASA's Science Mission Directorate in Washington. JPL is a division of the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena.
COMMENTARY: Charles F. Bolden, Jr., NASA Administrator and a former NASA astronaut recorded the following video (my apologies about the insertion of 700 Club religious propaganda from the maker of the video) about being prepared for natural disasters and attacks like 911. Mr. Bolden speaks about making adequaate emergency preparations like having an emergency kit and communications plan. Although Mr. Bolden does not specifically mention near-earth astroids or Asteroid 2005 YU55, why is he talking about emergency preparedness. Mr. Bolden claims that the motivation for the emergency prepared speech was based on a FEMA exercise called "Eagle Horizon". He could just as easily sent out an interagency email. What were Mr. Bolden's true motivation for recording that speech? hmmm.
It's just incredible how many near earth orbit space objects have been reported over the years and expected to come close to planet Earth. NASA's Nearth Earth Object Program has been tracking near-earth astroids since 1995. As the technology to observe NEAs has improved over time, more NEAs have been discovered. By the end of the year 2000 about 900 NEAs of all sizes had been discovered. By the end of March 2011 a total of over 8,000 NEAs of all sizes have been discovered to date. About 800 of those NEAs are considered large enough (over 1,000 meters in diameter) to cause great damage to earth. The majority of NEA's average about 500 meters in diameter, and over 2,500 have been discovered. This gives you an idea just how many NEAs are out thee that we know about. Below is a wide range of information of near-earth asteroids that have been discovered by NASA's Near Earth Object Program:
The following charts and tables have been revised to reflect improved estimates for near-Earth asteroid (NEA) reflectivities (albedos) - and hence diameters. The absolute magnitude of a NEA (H) is a measure of the object's brightness one astronomical unit from the sun and Earth and at zero phase angle (i.e., the angle between the sun and Earth, as seen from the NEA, is zero). The absolute magnitude (H) for a particular NEA is computed from the observed apparent magnitudes of the object at various times when the phase angles and the distances from the sun and Earth are known. A value for H can then be converted to an effective diameter using an assumed value for the NEA's reflectivity (albedo). An effective diameter is the diameter of a hypothetical spherical NEA that would provide the same apparent brightness as the observed NEA, whose actual shape is unknown.
Until relatively recently, the mean albedo for NEAs was thought to be 0.11 so the corresponding absolute magnitude for a NEA whose effective diameter is one kilometer was thought to be H = 18.0. Tables and charts based upon H = 18.0 have been provided on this web site since its inception and these charts can still be viewed at the following link.
Recent work by Stuart (2003) and others have shown that NEAs are, in the mean, 20% brighter than previously thought so that the mean albedo for NEAs is 0.14 rather than 0.11. Using this revised mean albedo implies the absolute magnitude (H) for a NEA with an effective one kilometer diameter is 17.75. The charts and plots given below reflect this recent update.
Stuart, J.S. (2003). Observational Constraints on the Number, Albedos, Sizes, and Impact Hazards of the Near-Earth Asteroids. Ph.D. thesis, MIT.
The chart below shows the total known number of near-earth astroids per size bin. Diameters are estimated using an assumed average albedo for NEAs. The first size bin represents NEAs smaller than 30 meters in diameter. The second represents NEAS with diameters from 30 meters to 100 meters, and so on.
PREPARATIONS BEING MADE TO OBSERVE AND RECORD 2005 YU55 FLYBY
Lance Benner, a research scientist at JPL and a specialist on radar imaging of near-Earth objects. He said part of the plan is to observe the asteroid with radar using both the huge Arecibo dish in Puerto Rico and equipment at Goldstone.
Close and big
Don Yeomans, manager of NASA’s Near-Earth Object Program Office and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif. said.
“The close Earth approach of 2005 YU55 on Nov. 8, is unusual since it is close and big. On average, one wouldn’t expect an object this big to pass this close but every 30 years,”
Yeomans said that with new radar capabilities at Goldstone in California — part of NASA’s Deep Space Network — there is a good chance of obtaining radar imaging of 2005 YU55 down to the 5-meter resolution level. Doing so, he said, would mean obtaining higher spatial resolution of the object than that attained by recent spacecraft flyby missions.
He said.
“So we like to think of this opportunity as a close flyby mission with Earth as the spacecraft,” Yeomans told SPACE.com. “When combined with ground-based optical and near-infrared observations, the radar data should provide a fairly complete picture of one of the larger potentially hazardous asteroids.”
Asteroid 2005 YU55 is a slow rotator. Because of its size and proximity to Earth, the Minor Planet Center in Cambridge, Mass., has designated the space rock as a “potentially hazardous asteroid.”
Dishing it out
Lance Benner, a research scientist at JPL and a specialist on radar imaging of near-Earth objects. He said part of the plan is to observe the asteroid with radar using both the huge Arecibo dish in Puerto Rico and equipment at Goldstone.
“We’re already preparing for the 2005 YU55 flyby. The asteroid will approach from the south, so Goldstone has the first chance to observe it due to its declination coverage.”
To help coordinate the observing campaigns, “Radar Observations Planning” websites have been set up for this unusual occasion, Benner said.
“This flyby will be the closest by any near-Earth asteroid with an absolute magnitude this bright since 1976 and until 2028. Having said that, nobody saw 2010 XC15 during its close flyby within 0.5 lunar distance in 1976.”
He said, noting that this asteroid wasn’t discovered until late in 2010.
“Thus, the flyby by 2005 YU55 will be the closest actually observed by something this large, so it represents a unique opportunity. In a real sense, this will provide imaging resolution comparable to or even better than a spacecraft mission flyby.”
Radar paint
Benner said that because the asteroid is zooming by Earth so very close, radar echoes will be extremely strong. One facility at Goldstone will be used to transmit and “radar paint” the object…another Goldstone dish is on tap to snag the reflected echo of radar data.
What can radar do?
Information collected by this technique, for example, can be transformed into 3-D shapes, with surface features and spin rates identified. The asteroid’s roughness and density can also be assessed. Furthermore, radar can improve the whereabouts of the object. By greatly shrinking uncertainties for newly discovered meandering NEOs, that in turn enables motion prediction for decades to centuries.
As for seeing the asteroid with small telescopes, start getting your gear ready.
Initially, the object will be too close to the sun and too faint for optical observers. But late in the day (Universal Time) on Nov. 8, the solar elongation will grow sufficiently to see it. Early on Nov. 9, the asteroid could reach about 11th magnitude for several hours before it fades as its distance rapidly increases, Benner explained.
Let's hope that NASA's NEA observatories are well funded. The last truly catastrophic life-ending asteroid slammed into the Earth about 65 million years ago and killed all the dinosaurs. We are long overdue for another big one, and the odds increase dramatically that we will be hit again.
Should Asteroid 2005 YU55 impact with Earth, I would also like to give my blogging fans complete assurances that I will be blogging no matter what happens.
LATEST FROM NASA!!
According to NASA, there is no cause for alarm, and the only thing that I could find is there original announcement of March 10, 2011 shown in its entirety below:
"Near-Earth asteroid 2005 YU55 will pass within 0.85 lunar distances from the Earth on November 8, 2011. The upcoming close approach by this relatively large 400 meter-sized, C-type asteroid presents an excellent opportunity for synergistic ground-based observations including optical, near infrared and radar data. The attached animated illustration shows the Earth and moon flyby geometry for November 8th and 9th when the object will reach a visual brightness of 11th magnitude and should be easily visible to observers in the northern and southern hemispheres. The closest approach to Earth and the Moon will be respectively 0.00217 AU and 0.00160 AU on 2011 November 8 at 23:28 and November 9 at 07:13 UT.
Discovered December 28, 2005 by Robert McMillan of the Spacewatch Program near Tucson Arizona, the object has been previously observed by Mike Nolan, Ellen Howell and colleagues with the Arecibo radar on April 19-21, 2010 and shown to be a very dark, nearly spherical object 400 meters in diameter. Because of its approximate 20-hour rotation period, ideal radar observations should include tracks that are 8 hours or longer on multiple dates at Goldstone (November 3-11) and when the object enters Arecibo's observing window on November 8th.
Using the Goldstone radar operating in a relatively new "chirp" mode, the November 2011 radar opportunity could result in a shape model reconstruction with a resolution of as fine as 4 meters. Several days of high resolution imaging (about 7.5 meters) are also planned at Arecibo. As well as aiding the interpretation of the radar observations, collaborative visual and near infrared observations could define the object's rotation characteristics and provide constraints upon the nature of the object's surface roughness and mineral composition.
Since the asteroid will approach the Earth from the sunward direction, it will be a daylight object until the time of closest approach. The best time for new ground-based optical and infrared observations will be late in the day on November 8, after 21:00 hours UT from the eastern Atlantic and western Africa zone. A few hours after its close Earth approach, it will become generally accessible for optical and near-IR observations but will provide a challenging target because of its rapid motion across the sky.
Although classified as a potentially hazardous object, 2005 YU55 poses no threat of an Earth collision over at least the next 100 years. However, this will be the closest approach to date by an object this large that we know about in advance and an event of this type will not happen again until 2028 when asteroid (153814) 2001 WN5 will pass to within 0.6 lunar distances."
Below is NASA's animation showing the path of asteroid 2005 YU55 as it passes between the orbits of Earth and ther Moon.
Trajectory of asteroid 2005 Yu55 - November 8-9, 2011 (CLICK ABOVE IMAGE TO VIEW)
Here's the official video by Lance Benner, Research Scientist for NASA's Jet Propulsion Lap (JPL):
Just in case asteroid 2005 YU55 should hit Earth, or even the Moon, I wanted to have this video as a public record of NASA's official position regarding the asteroid.
Asteroid 2005 YU55 will NOT be viewable by the naked eye or ground-based telescopes from anywhere in the U.S. Asteroid 2005 YU55 for new ground-based optical and infrared observations will be late in the day on November 8, after 21:00 hours UT from the eastern Atlantic and western Africa zone. A few hours after its close Earth approach, it will become generally accessible for optical and near-IR observations but will provide a challenging target because of its rapid motion across the sky.
You can bet that NASA, space scientists and astronomers and a few fortunate individuals will be able to see asteroid 2005 YU55, and hopefully some of them will be able to shoot a video of the event when that happens, and post it on YouTube or on the NASA website. You can bet that as soon as that video is available, I will post an update on my blog.
Courtesy of an announcement prepared by Don Yeomans, Lance Benner and Jon Giorgini dated March 10, 2011 by NASA Near Earth Object Program and NASA Nearth Earth Object Program Near-Earth Asteroid Discovery Statistics and and article dated April 7, 2011 appearing in Space.com and a NASA profile of NASA Administrator, Charles F. Bolden Jr.
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