A revolutionary new TV could be coming to an Apple Store near you. Here are the seven ways that it could change everything.
Apple’s (NASDAQ: AAPL) first venture into television manufacturing has been rumored for months. But it wasn’t until now that we finally received confirmation of the TV’s existence.
For the past week or two, Walter Isaacson has been releasing excerpts from his upcoming book, the first and only official biography on Steve Jobs. On Sunday, Isaacson released his most intriguing excerpt yet, revealing that Jobs once claimed that he had designed a simpler TV interface. Jobs told Isaacson during one of his interviews for the biography.
“I finally cracked it.”
It’s very interesting that Jobs would reveal this, and even more interesting that this information would come to light now, several months before Apple is slated (rumored?) to make any official announcements.
What will an Apple television set mean for the future of TV? After forming my own predictions, I spoke with Trip Chowdhry, the Managing Director of Equity Research at Global Equities Research, for his take on Apple’s next major release.
1. Simplicity Will Reign Supreme
During our discussion, Chowdhry reiterated his belief that Apple was dedicated to making a television set that would eliminate all of the cumbersome aspects of the current crop of TVs. More specifically, Chowdhry believes that the Apple TV sets will require only one wire. He also thinks that the setup process will be a bit of a cakewalk – perhaps even simpler than a Mac computer.
2. Bigger Computing Will Take Over
While it may not be a feature of the initial batch of Apple television sets, there is no doubt in my mind that these TVs will eventually become oversized monitors for Macs. The benefits of Mac compatibility (via Airport, Thunderbolt or some other technology) would be nearly endless.
(Check out more Benzinga Apple analysis here.)
3. No More Eye Strain
One of the key features of Apple’s first TV could be something you wouldn’t expect: the viewing angle. Chowdhry says that Apple is designing the first set that will allow consumers to sit anywhere in the room and have the same experience enjoyed by the person sitting directly in front of the TV.
4. Remotes will be Obliterated
Electronics manufacturers are so determined to get us to buy new remotes (along with universal remotes and other TV- and DVD-controlling remotes) that they have not bothered to toy with the concept of simplifying the whole process.
Apple, on the other hand, is all about simplification.
“Using the iPad as a remote would not be natural.”
To all users, Chowdhry said, refuting the belief that Apple will simply require users to change channels with an existing iDevice. Apple, he added, was not thinking of technologists when developing its TV.
Rather, Chowdhry is convinced that Apple’s remote could be a carbon copy of the one Bose developed for its HDTV.
What about Siri? Couldn’t this technology eliminate the need for a remote and make the process of changing channels much simpler?
“Microsoft would think that way, but Apple is not that big of an idiot.”
Chowdhry said with a laugh. He explained that voice recognition only works in a quiet environment, thus making it next to impossible to use with a TV.
5. The 3D Revolution is Coming
…But not at launch. While Apple has been associated with 3D screen development ever since it filed a patent for a glasses-free 3D projector last year, Chowdhry does not think its technology – or any other 3D feature – will make it into the TVs at launch. However, Chowdhry does believe that 3D is “in the roadmap” for future Apple TV iterations.
(Benzinga’s Options & Volatility Edge gave a 250% gain on Genworth – check the service out here.)
6. Apple Stores Will Continue to Get Bigger
Have you been to an Apple Store lately? If so, then chances are you have noticed that your local store has been or will be remodeled in the near future. The reason, Chowdhry says, is because the current Apple Stores are not large enough to house all of the Mac and iDevice equipment and a 60-inch television set. Chowdhry is convinced that Apple has started to expand and remodel its stores in preparation for a March unveiling of its first TV.
7. Consumers Will Learn to Expect (And Accept) Higher Prices
There has been a lot of speculation regarding how much Apple would (or could) charge for a new TV. I personally have argued that there’s no way the company would charge $1,200 (as estimated by Gene Munster) for a new TV when it charges $1,000 for a 27-inch monitor. I firmly believe that, assuming the smallest model is any larger than 27 inches, Apple will charge significantly more.
Chowdhry, however, believes that Apple will offer three different television sets, starting at around $1,200 (for the entry-level model) and going all the way up to $4,000. While he is unsure of the size options that Apple will offer, Chowdhry says that the cheapest set will not offer any built-in surround sound features. The high-end, $4,000 model, however, should come equipped with 16 to 24 built-in speakers for an unprecedented surround sound experience, similar to the Bose VideoWave Entertainment System, which retails for $5,349.
Regardless, one has to consider the sales potential of a TV that retails for 1/4 the price of a new car. Who, besides the wealthiest and most loyal Apple fans, would pay $4,000 for a new TV?
Chowdhry is convinced that the price won’t matter as much as we would expect. He told Benzinga that people will be persuaded as soon as they “see and experience” Apple’s television sets.
Further, Chowdhry points out that if you break down the costs of a high-end 60-inch TV (somewhere in the range of $2,000), plus the cost of a high-end surround sound system ($1,200), plus other extras, you are dangerously close to the predicted cost of a 60-inch Apple TV.
COMMENTARY: The idea of an Apple television set has been around for quite sometime. It's the logical next move. If Steve Jobs told his biographier that he had "cracked it", I doubt he would've given him any specific details or forbid him telling others. It's the old "Culture of Fear" instigated by jobs to keep secrecy on a strictly need-to-know basis.
Rumors of an Apple TV set have been circulating for at least two years. In a May 2010 blog post, Peter Yared wrote:
“Stylish, high-end TVs is the last consumer electronics frontier for Apple to dominate, and it will make apps as much of a differentiator on TVs as they were on smartphones.”
and:
“The TV is the last frontier in Silicon Valley’s relentless drive to computerize every screen. With the price of fully Internet-enabling a screen at below $300, everything that people see and touch is being turned into a computer: mobile phones, billboards, price displays, and with the iPad even magazines, books, and newspapers.”
More recently, Gene Munster, an oft-quoted analyst at the PiperJaffray investment bank, repeated his prediction of an Apple TV set launch in 2012, with Stewart Alsop adding:
“Apple will do to television manufacturers what it did to phone makers with the iPhone…”
The idea is exciting and so obvious it’s got to happen. Imagine a true plug-and-play experience. One set with only two wires: power and the cable TV coax. Turn it on, assert your Apple ID credentials and you’re in business. The program guide looks good and is easy to navigate; pay channels are just a click and a password away. The TV runs apps, from games to FaceTime and Skype, it “just works’’ with your other iDevices and also acts as a Wi-Fi base station using the cable provider’s Internet service.
One things is for sure: the Apple television set would have to fit within the "Digital Hub Strategy" upon which Jobs built the new Apple after his return to the company in 1997.
Given Steve Jobs, and therefore Apple's, propensity to create closed systems or products that incorporate the Apple OS and hardware, it would have to be Apple's own proprietary television set.
The damn thing would have to be an appliance like your typical television, where the entire family could view it, but ot would be Apple in every way possible. I agree with Chowdhry on points #1 and #2.
When it comes to point #3 (eliminating eye strain), I don't know how you could design a television set where the view would be the same no matter from which angle you watched it from. I just don't think it's technically possible. If you "think differently," as Jobs would, the new television set would require individual viewing headsets that would give you the "big picture", "resolution", "colors" and the full 3-D effect. Each viewing headset would allow you to watch television anywhere in the house or office for that matter.
I disagree with Chowdhry that Apple would not use its existing mobile devices (iPhone or iPad) as television remotes or point #4. Why not. It makes perfect sense. You could easily add infrared signal capability to the iPhone or iPad and a new app would convert it into a TV remote, providing the viewer with the means to change channels, adjust the sound, and operate external electronics appliances like DVD players or tuner/amplifiers.
I disagree with Chowdhry on point #5 You could bet that Steve Jobs would want the full 3-D effect. It would be a sin to leave out 3D from a future Apple television set. That's where my idea of 3D viewing headsets come in (see point #3 above).
With regard to point #6. You don't have to necessarily increase or radically redesign Apple Stores to accomodate an Apple television set. You would only need room for five Apple television sets, one each for 27, 32, 37, 42 and 60-inch screens. You could easily mount them on the walls throughout the store or on one of the tables back-to-pack. Easy-peezy.
I disagree with Chowdhry on point #7. Apple customers are already used to paying premium prices for everything. They will pay premium prices for the Apple television set too.
Enough said.
Courtesy of an article dated October 24, 2011 appearing in Forbes and an article dated September 4, 2011 appearing in MondayNotes
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