Elon Musk, the inspiration behind Iron Man’s executive-turned-rocketeering space hero Tony Stark, believes his space-transport start-up will send passengers to Mars in as soon as 10 years.
- Space Exploration Technologies Corp.
- SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket
In a wide-ranging interview with The Wall Street Journal’s Alan Murray (watch below), Musk says Space Exploration Technologies Corp., better known asSpaceX, is aiming to send the first man to space in three years. But, he said, “we’re going all the way to Mars.” Asked for a timeframe, Musk adds: “Best case, 10 years, worst case, 15 to 20 years.”
Musk’s company, backed by venture firms such as Draper Fisher Jurvetson and Founders Fund, is one of several companies trying to privatize some of the core functions of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. While the American government is pulling back on space travel, NASA last week awarded SpaceX $75 million in funding as part of a $269 million package for several companies developing commercial spacecraft.
Hawthorne, Calif.-based SpaceX has NASA contracts to transport cargo to and from the international space station, and its hoping that its Falcon family of rockets will carry NASA astronauts to the space station, too.
“I really want SpaceX to help make life multi-planetary,” Musk said in the WSJ interview. “I’d like to see a self-sustaining base on Mars.”
Much of the WSJ interview covers Musk’s other company, electric-car maker Tesla Motors, which he says is “breaking the misconceptions around electric cars–showing that you can have a fast, cool, beautiful electric car that goes long distances.”
Tesla, which has sold more than 1,600 of its electric sports car, the Roadster, at a selling price of $110,000, has received strong criticism for, as Murray put it, using tax payer dollars to fund “a play thing for George Clooney and the rich” by accepting a $465 million government loan in 2009.
While Musk admits his company didn’t need the Advanced Technology Vehicle Manufacturing loan, he emphasizes that it was designed to accelerate Tesla’s progress and was specifically for the development of the Model S sedan, which Tesla plans to start making the middle of next year for a sale price of $50,000.
“These loans were announced at the same time a bailout was taking place, and there was a stimulus, so people naturally confused the two which is quite unfortunate,” Musk said.
He added Tesla pays interest, albeit reduced interest, and if it doesn’t pay off the loan early the government receives stock warrants in Tesla.
As for Robert Downey Jr.’s character in the Iron Man, Musk said, “There are some important differences. I’ve got five kids, and Iron Man is sort of a swinging bachelor. I spend my weekends going to Disneyland. I can’t see Tony Stark doing that.”
Watch the 16-minute interview below.
COMMENTARY: Besides the criticism surrounding the $465 million federal guaranteed loan provided to Tesla Motors to speed the development of the Roadster and Model S sedan, SpaceX's founder has received heat concerning promises that its Falcon 9 space rocket can transport payloads into space at costs 30%-40% lower than NASA's Space Shuttle. The Space Shuttle program is sheduled to be phased out, with its last mission into space scheduled for September 011. Due to this mounting criticism Elon Musk felt that it was necessary to respond to members of the press and other individuals suspicious about SpaceX's reported payload delivery costs. Here's his press release of May 5, 2011:
"Why the US Can Beat China: The Facts About SpaceX Costs
Whenever someone proposes to do something that has never been done before, there will always be skeptics.
So when I started SpaceX, it was not surprising when people said we wouldn’t succeed. But now that we’ve successfully proven Falcon 1, Falcon 9 and Dragon, there’s been a steady stream of misinformation and doubt expressed about SpaceX’s actual launch costs and prices.
As noted last month by a Chinese government official, SpaceX currently has the best launch prices in the world and they don’t believe they can beat them. This is a clear case of American innovation trumping lower overseas labor rates.
I recognize that our prices shatter the historical cost models of government-led developments, but these prices are not arbitrary, premised on capturing a dominant share of the market, or “teaser” rates meant to lure in an eager market only to be increased later. These prices are based on known costs and a demonstrated track record, and they exemplify the potential of America’s commercial space industry.
Here are the facts:
The price of a standard flight on a Falcon 9 rocket is $54 million. We are the only launch company that publicly posts this information on our website (www.spacex.com). We have signed many legally binding contracts with both government and commercial customers for this price (or less). Because SpaceX is so vertically integrated, we know and can control the overwhelming majority of our costs. This is why I am so confident that our performance will increase and our prices will decline over time, as is the case with every other technology.
The average price of a full-up NASA Dragon cargo mission to the International Space Station is $133 million including inflation, or roughly $115m in today's dollars, and we have a firm, fixed price contract with NASA for 12 missions. This price includes the costs of the Falcon 9 launch, the Dragon spacecraft, all operations, maintenance and overhead, and all of the work required to integrate with the Space Station. If there are cost overruns, SpaceX will cover the difference. (This concept may be foreign to some traditional government space contractors that seem to believe that cost overruns should be the responsibility of the taxpayer.)
The total company expenditures since being founded in 2002 through the 2010 fiscal year were less than $800 million, which includes all the development costs for the Falcon 1, Falcon 9 and Dragon. Included in this $800 million are the costs of building launch sites at Vandenberg, Cape Canaveral and Kwajalein, as well as the corporate manufacturing facility that can support up to 12 Falcon 9 and Dragon missions per year. This total also includes the cost of five flights of Falcon 1, two flights of Falcon 9, and one up and back flight of Dragon.
The Falcon 9 launch vehicle was developed from a blank sheet to first launch in four and half years for just over $300 million. The Falcon 9 is an EELV (evolved expendable launch vehicle) class vehicle that generates roughly one million pounds of thrust (four times the maximum thrust of a Boeing 747) and carries more payload to orbit than a Delta IV Medium.
The Dragon spacecraft was developed from a blank sheet to the first demonstration flight in just over four years for about $300 million. Last year, SpaceX became the first private company, in partnership with NASA, to successfully orbit and recover a spacecraft. The spacecraft and the Falcon 9 rocket that carried it were designed, manufactured and launched by American workers for an American company. The Falcon 9/Dragon system, with the addition of a launch escape system, seats and upgraded life support, can carry seven astronauts to orbit, more than double the capacity of the Russian Soyuz, but at less than a third of the price per seat.
SpaceX has been profitable every year since 2007, despite dramatic employee growth and major infrastructure and operations investments. We have over 40 flights on manifest representing over $3 billion in revenues.
These are the objective facts, confirmed by external auditors. Moreover, SpaceX intends to make far more dramatic reductions in price in the long term when full launch vehicle reusability is achieved. We will not be satisfied with our progress until we have achieved this long sought goal of the space industry.
For the first time in more than three decades, America last year began taking back international market-share in commercial satellite launch. This remarkable turn-around was sparked by a small investment NASA made in SpaceX in 2006 as part of the Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) program. A unique public-private partnership, COTS has proven that under the right conditions, a properly incentivized contractor—even an all-American one—can develop extremely complex systems on rapid timelines and a fixed-price basis, significantly beating historical industry-standard costs.
China has the fastest growing economy in the world. But the American free enterprise system, which allows anyone with a better mouse-trap to compete, is what will ensure that the United States remains the world’s greatest superpower of innovation."
China has a very advanced and ambitious space program with the goal of building a space station similar to the Internatinoal Space Station, plans to send and return unmanned space vehicles to the Moon (2012-2017), send manned space vehicles to the Moon beginning in 2017 and land Chinese astronauts on the moon and build a lunar base (2017-2025), send unmanned space probes to the planet Mars (2014-2033) and follow this with manned space missions (2040-2060)
China's space program has the advantage of being funded by the Chinese government and access to considerable technological resources, and will become SpaceX's main competitor to send payloads into outer space. With its limited resources, SpaceX has no room for error and is taking tremendous risks. So far, SpaceX has successfully launched their Falcon 9 into space and just recently launched an unmanned reusable Dragon space vehicle into space. The Dragon can carry up to nine astronauts into space. SpaceX's goal is to send its first manned Dragon space vehicle into space by 2014.
How SpaceX will be able to meet its goal of sending a man to the planet Mars within ten years at the earliest (2021) and 15 to 20 years (2025-2030) at the latest, is very optimistic considering the tremendous technical challenges that msut be overcome. If SpaceX can get a man on Mars by 2025, this will be 15 years ahead of the Chinese. Those are very lofty goals, but so far Elon Musks' SpaceX team is on schedule to replace NASA's Space Shuttle by 2015.
I have found SpaceX a very interesting company and Elon Musk a very colorful personality, and one of the most ambitious and dynamic entrepreneurs I have ever known. How he can lead two incredible startups simultaneously is absolutely incredible. He has my vote for Entrepreneur of the Decade. No wonder he got a divorce. I have regularly covered SpaceX and you can find all of my posts HERE. I include a large number of photos and videos. This is a great way for you to catchup and become familiarized with this very exciting private space company.
Courtesy of an article dated April 26, 2011 appearing in The Wall Street Journal
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