ImaginativePRO Blog

AMYRIS OPENS FIRST NEXT-GEN BIOFUELS INDUSTRIAL-SCALE FACILITY FOR THE PRODUCTION BIOFENE™ SYNTHETIC FUEL

Perfume additives and shark liver oil substitutes first; the broader market for diesel over time.

That’s the revised business plan, in a nutshell, for Amyris Inc., which has formally moved into commercial production. Amyris has created a genetically modified yeast that converts sugar cane syrup into hydrocarbons via fermentation. (Ordinarily, yeast would convert sugar into alcohol, a chemical with less value.)

The company now has two fermenters with a 100,000-liter capacity in operation that are capable of producing 17 million liters a year of Biofene, Amyris’ base hydrocarbon, says Jeri Hilleman, CFO. Amyris -- one of the first companies to champion exploiting GMOs to produce industrial chemicals and fuels -- has sold some Biofene, but not in volume. Most of its revenue comes from reselling fuel from other parties.

 

Amyris can sell Biofene itself, or add molecules to it to convert it to diesel or designer lubricants and then sell those higher-value products. A substantial portion of the early Biofene production will go to make squalane, a perfume additive. Now, squalane is usually made from heavy olive oil, which can be tough to find because of the demand for extra virgin olive oil, or shark liver oil.

Squalane can sell for $25 to $30 a liter, compared to $5 to $9 a liter for lubricants.

In 2012, Amryis will expand production by installing fermenters with a 600,000-liter capacity. It will also devise new families of hydrocarbons. Biofene contains 15 carbon molecules. In the future, Amyris will try to make 10-carbon molecules for, potentially, the jet fuel and polymer market, as well as 5-carbon molecules, like isoprene, for making rubber. (Genencor, now part of DuPont, showed us a bug-inspired isoprene Goodrich puts into tires.)

The company is also tweaking the process so it can move from batch to continuous manufacturing. “It is like a salad dressing. You pull oil off of the top” of the fermenter tank, she said.

The activity underscores what one could call the rebirth of biofuels. Biofuel and biochem companies raked in hundreds of millions of dollars in 2006 and 2007. Then the recession hit, causing funding and oil prices to collapse.  Companies such as Range Fuels, Imperium Renewables and Mascoma suddenly found themselves facing reduced circumstances. 'Hey, buddy, can you spare $256 million?' became a common refrain.

Amyris wasn't immune from hubris and disappointment. CEO John Melo told us in 2008 that by 2010 Amyris hoped to be producing 200 million gallons of diesel a year and selling it for $2 a gallon at wholesale.

Whoops.

Cut to 2010. Fuel prices started to climb, governments got serious about mileage and biofuel standards, and funding returned, giving startups a chance to meet downward-revised goals. Amyris and Gevo held successful IPOs and Solazyme and Kior are expected soon to follow.

Amyris' progress over the next several years -- assuming it happens -- could also become an endorsement for synthetic biology. Many believe that chemistry and refining can be made cheaper by exploiting engineered microbes and the magic of metabolism.  Others say traditional thermochemical processes work better, particularly for volume manufacturing. If Amyris'  yeast turn out to be the diligent employees the company has promised, expect to see momentum to start to shift to the bugs. 

Fuel is still part of the business plan, she added, but Amyris will move gradually into it. The company largely wants to stick to markets that will allow it to sell its liquids as a positive margin. It’s still not as cheap to ferment oil as it is to extract it out of Saudi Arabia. In some markets with strict renewable standards such as Brazil, Amyris can already find willing fuel customers. A Sao Paolo bus agency is currently buying fuel, for instance.

Over time, Amyris and partners like Shell and Total will try to bring microbe fuel to Europe.

And contrary to some rumors, Amyris remains in the medical market. Sanof-Aventis, the French pharma giant, still plans on coming out with the synthetic version of Artemisinin, a malarial, in late 2011 or early 2012.  

COMMENTARY:   I have been covering Amyris ever since they announced their next generation biofuels technology for producing hydrocarbons from sugar cane, and they obtained a Department of Energy grant for $24 million on June 2, 2010 and their lackluster IPO of September 28, 2010 that raised only $85 million, stead of the projected $100 million.      

According to Amyris' forecasts as of February 28, 2011 (below), the company will not achieve profitability until 2013, when it hopes to generate $800 million plus in revenues and a net profit of about $30 million.  Profits are difficult to comeby in biofuels production because it takes a while to ramp up production to achieve economies of scale.  Those yeast molecules can only produce so much Biofene hydrocarbons per year, meaning that Amyris will have to probably make additional investments in plant and equipment to its Brazil production facility.

Amyris stock began the year 2011 at $27.o0 per share, peaked at $33.50 in mid-January and closed at $26.43 on April 29, 2011 share.  It's stock price reflects the uncertainty and volatilty in energy stocks caused by the  turmoil in the Middle East and the Fukushima, Japan nuclear reactor catastophe caused by tsunami created by the 9.1 earthquake in Japan on March 12, 2011. 

Amyris' first industrial-scale facility for the production of Biofene™, Amyris’s renewable farnesene, is located in Piracicaba, São Paulo, Brazil at a facility owned by Biomin do Brasil Nutricão Animal Ltda., a company focusing on animal nutrition. Amyris will operate the production facility and expects to begin Biofene production in May. To produce Biofene, Amyris feeds sugar cane syrup into three dedicated 200,000 liter fermentors containing Amyris proprietary yeast. The yeast digest the syrup feedstock and produce farnesene, which is then separated and purified. Biofene may then be sold directly into industrial applications or put through simple chemical finishing steps to form a broad range of renewable products including squalane, base oil and finished lubricants and diesel.

To achieve production at full industrial scale, Amyris has developed an integrated scale-up process which connects ongoing advances in Amyris research with industrial-scale production. By miniaturizing process conditions found in production-scale fermentors, Amyris has been able to translate yeast performance successfully from discovery to production. Amyris further controls scale-up by testing performance in its pilot plant in Emeryville, Calif., followed by vetting in a second pilot plant and a demonstration facility in Amyris’s operations in Campinas, Brazil. Earlier this year, Amyris tested its yeast strains and process in several runs at 100,000 and 200,000 liter scale and generated results that were consistent with previous runs at smaller scale.

Says Amyris CEO John Melo,

“The completion of our first Biofene production facility is a landmark not only for Amyris but also for the renewable products sector.  With this milestone, we are demonstrating that engineered yeast may be used to produce high-value hydrocarbon molecules on a commercial scale. This achievement reinforces our goal of providing No Compromise® renewable alternatives to petroleum to transform the chemicals industry, extend the world’s fuel supply and contribute to the betterment of our environment.”

Amyris is scaling its production through contract agreements with manufacturers located in Brazil, Europe and the United States, and has five production agreements in place including contract agreements with Antibioticós S.A., Biomin, Paraíso Bioenergia S.A., Tate & Lyle Ingredients Americas, Inc., an affiliate of Tate & Lyle PLC, and a joint venture with Usina São Martinho S.A., one of the largest sugar and ethanol producers in Brazil. Amyris has also established finishing capabilities with Glycotech, Inc.

Amyris is a great example of how difficult it is to get to scale so that biofuels production produces a profit.  I have never been an apostle of biofuels because they require a lot of capital investment in plant and equipment and R&D, producing biobuels takes time, and the quantities of biofuels are very small compared to regular fossil fuels.  Whether Amyris can meet its revenue projections remains to be seen, but I see nothing but up for the company given the rising cost of oil and uncertainties in the availability of oil as the global economies improve.

Courtesy of an article dated April 29, 2011 appearing in GreenTechMedia

SOCIAL MEDIA IS COMING TO VENDING MACHINES, COURTESY OF PEPSI

Social media is coming to vending machines, courtesy of PepsiCo, which unveiled a new touch-screen interactive social vending machine at the National Automatic Merchandising Association conference in Chicago. According to InformationWeek, the machine -- developed for PepsiCo by DCI Marketing and Protagonist -- allows individuals to buy drinks as gifts for friends, who receive redeemable codes via text message. The person buying the gift just has to enter the intended recipient's name and mobile number, along with a personal message - plus a brief video message, if they wish. The recipient can redeem the code whenever the mood strikes.

IW reports that PepsiCo is protecting privacy by not storing email addresses and phone numbers submitted to the machines, which have yet to be market-tested with beverage brands (the first tests are due later this year). Users can also buy drinks for strangers in what Pepsi terms "Random Acts of Refreshment," with the gift delivered according to certain criteria -- for example, sending a beverage to someone in a city experiencing a heat wave.

The social vending machines are PepsiCo's attempt to grapple with one of the main issues of social media marketing: making sure social media actually helps you sell stuff. It comes on the heels of mixed success for the Pepsi Refresh Project, the brand's first major venture into social media territory last year.

Pepsi Refresh was a big success in its stated goals of raising Pepsi's brand awareness and burnishing the brand's image, by giving away millions of dollars of grants to charitable initiatives large and small, with individuals and organizations submitting ideas online, and winners chosen by online voting. Altogether Pepsi allotted $20 million to fund grants in the project's first year, working out to about $1.3 million in grants per month. The online metrics were impressive: Pepsi told the Wall Street Journal that the Pepsi Refresh Project received more than 150,000 idea submissions in 2010, tallying 76 million votes from 17 million unique visitors over the same period.

But the total volume of Pepsi sales slipped 8.6% in the first nine months of 2010 compared to the same period in 2009, according to figures from trade pub Beverage Digest cited by WSJ. In other words, social media success appeared to have little relation (in the short term, at least) with increased sales.

COMMENTARY:   I knew that competition between soft drink giants Coca Cola and Pepsi is fierce, and Pepsi's sales took a dip, but this is a crazy idea for getting people to drink more Pepsi.   I think it is a stretch to call it a social fending machine. It's a Pepsi vending machine alright, but one that allows customers to redeems electronic gift coupons. Don't get me wrong, its a cool idea, and opens up the potential for social candy machines, social prophylatic machines, social detergent machines, social stamp dispensing machines.  The list is endless, so long as it can be sold through a vending machine.  I can hardly wait to see how well this new concept works.  If it works, Coke will be next.  The kids might just be crazy to go for this crazy idea.  Facebook stands to make a bunch of money since payment will most likely be made with Facebook Credits.

Courtesy of an article dated April 29, 2011 appearing in MediaPost Publications The Social Graf 

 

STARTUP ADDICT LAUNCHES A NEW CROWDFUNDING SITE FOR ENTREPRENEURS AND CREATIVE TYPES NEEDING FUNDING

StartupAddict a haven for entrepreneurial superheroes thwarting the forces of mediocrity just released a complete redesign to its’ website funding platform. StartupAddict.com the original crowdfunding site now makes it easy to harness the power of the crowd to fund startups.

In the spirit of the American Startup Partnership Initiative, StartupAddict has one simple mission: No good idea will be left unfunded. Now anyone can be an pseudo Angel and help American startups for the price of their Monday morning Latte. StartupAddict enables passionate entrepreneurs across America to utilize the crowd for funding and in the process create thousands of start ups and potential jobs.

The crowdfunding update will assist entrepreneurs in overcoming the fierce obstacles in obtaining seed funding. Entrepreneurs creating lean startups will have access to capital to turn their ideas into prototypes and beta test the marketplace with live customers. StartupAddict is the conduit for startups to get funded successfully while rewarding the funders for believing in the entrepreneurs. StartupAddict can turn the average joe-funder into an Angel powerhouse.

Imagine for the amount of money you donate to a local charity you could be fueling economic activity in the United States and empowering entrepreneurs around the nation to succeed.

Funders will glean rewards from startups for their generous contributions while building a significant social reputation across the community and beyond. StartupAddict is developing a point based reputation system where funders will be rewarded with real world prizes based on reputation and funding generosity.

Once successfully funded through the crowd, startups can go on to cashflow through profitability or move on to equity based funding from Angel groups and Venture Capitalists in the startup value chain.

COMMENTARY:  Tod Whipple is the founder of Startup Addict. He is a serial entrepreneur, technology geek and real estate developer in the New England area. He is an advocate for startups and small business initiatives everywhere.  You will find Tod at Startup Addict Musings where he is an avid blogger ranting about startups, technology and business.

In a former life, Mr. Whipple produced feature films, television and new media projects. He was a partner at Scout Productions a film/television and new media production company in Boston Massachusetts. He started the company’s new media division in 2000. Some of his credits include Queer Eye for the Straight Guy for Bravo/NBC, Session 9 for USA Films, and Deadman’s Curve for Trimark pictures to name a few.

Presently, Tod is involved in a number of businesses in the greater Boston area, enjoys blogging and crafting new business models.

In a nutshell this is how Startup Addict works:

Startup Addict is a new way for people to pool small amounts of money to back a good idea or project. 

If you need funding for a project or idea; Startup Addict really is a no-brainer.

•    It's FREE to register and there’re no monthly subscription fees. 
•    Startup Addict takes a 5% commission on successful projects.
•    If the fundraiser hits their funding target they get the money.
•    If they don’t, the people funding the project will get their money back.

So there really is nothing to lose and everything to gain. Start a pitch today.

Crowdfunding - a revolutionary way to raise funds

Startup Addict aims to give bright young entrepreneurs with a cool business idea a revolutionary new way to raise money by crowdfunding their project. 

Startup Addict gives the UK's smartest characters a newfangled way to raise money by tapping into a 'crowd' of like minded trendsetters willing to invest small amounts of cash in exchange for unique rewards and being part of something unique.  

Startup Addict can kick start a projects entrepreneurs are trying to get off the ground – it can be anything from food to photography, fashion to film or art to an extreme adventure.

Project Pitch Tips

A pitch is the fundraisers way of selling their idea and their project to potential fundgivers.  It's their showcase and they need to do everything they can to convince potential contributors that their idea is the best thing since sliced bread.

So, the more interesting, fun and worthwhile fundraisers can make their project sound the easier it will be to gain support and raise funds.

A really compelling description wirtten clearly and with passion is a must-have.

A video can reall help convince people to contribut to their project.

Finally, and perhaps most importantly fundraisers need to dream up some attractive and unique rewards which will entice potential contributors to open their wallets and help get the fundraisers project off the ground.

For Fundraisers or founders raising funds for your project

Funding a project through Startup Addict is an easy process. Fundraisers begin by creating an online pitch for the project, establishing a target amount, and promoting it to individuals and entrepreneurs who might help fund it.  Once the funds raised reach the target amount, or the amount raised exceeds the target amount, Startup Addict transfers the money pledged by fundgivers and the fundraiser can finally get down to the serious business of making their project become a reality.  Project fundraisers can choose a duration of 30, 45, 60 or 90 days to raise the target amount. The project pitch will stay available for contributions until the end of the funding period.  There is no minimum or maximum for project pitches.  Once the target amount has been met the fundraiser will be responsible for ensuring that every fundgiver receives an appropriate reward.   The reward could be anything from a ‘big thank you’ to something unique that will knock  socks off.  It totally depends on how much fundgivers contribute and how generous the founder is.

For Fundgivers funding a project

Starup Addict gives fundgivers the opportunity to follow and back great ideas from great people. Funding an exciting new project is simple. Whether the individual they're investing in is a forward-thinking entrepreneur, a stylish new fashion designer, or a enlightening video documentary - Startup Addict gives fundgivers the chance to get involved and fund projects that tickle their fancy.   The maximum amount that any fundgiver can contribute in a project is $2000.  Any fundgiver who has a valid credit card or Paypal account and is over 18 years old can contribute funds to projects on Startup Addict.  Fundgivers' credit card or Paypal account will be charged every time they make a contribution to the fundraisers Startup Addict account.  If the project reaches the target amount, fundgivers are notified by email.  If the project does not reach its target amount then all monies are returned to the fundraisers Startup Addict account balance.  If the target amount is reached, in return fundgivers get a reward from the founder of the project.  This could be anything from a ‘big thank you’ to something unique that will knock their socks off. It totally depends on how much fundgivers contribute and how generous the founder is.  Startup Addict displays a list of projects that fundgivers have contributed on their public profile, but Startup Addict does not disclose how much money fundgivers contributed to each project.

Courtesy of Startup Addict's press release dated April 28, 2011 appearing in PR Web

THE GREAT RECESSION HAS GIVEN RISE TO THE SIX-FIGURE TEMPORARY WORKER, A TREND THAT MAYBE HERE TO STAY

Mike Raffia is a CFO for hire.

Since hanging up his hat as chief financial officer of Tarrytown, N.Y.-based food processing company Kane Miller, Raffia has held more than a dozen senior-level positions in as many years in a variety of industries, jumping from utilities to financial services.

Raffia, 61, who lives in Hartsdale, N.Y., enjoys the job hopping, which comes courtesy of a temporary employment agency. "I've worked with management, mergers," he said. "It's satisfying."

Leery of increasing employment during an uncertain recovery, recession-weary companies have become more willing to take on senior level temporary workers like Raffia who often can make between $90,000 and $200,000 per year, on an hourly basis. As the recovery gathers steam, analysts and executives expect the practice to accelerate.

"There are a lot of projects that are getting restarted -- deferred maintenance," said John LeBlanc, a senior executive for staffing firm Experis, the professional resourcing division of ManpowerGroup. "Compliance and M&A are two environmental factors that drive our business a lot."

Temporary staffing usually bumps up during the early part of an economic recovery. What's different this time is more such jobs are opening up at senior levels than in previous cycles. The evidence shows up in business results of recruiting firms such as Experis and Resources Global which specialize in placing such professionals.

The Irvine, Calif.-based Resources Global reported a 9.8% increase in revenue for its fiscal third quarter ended Feb. 26 to $137.6 million along with a 10.2% increase in temps deployed to clients such as Chevron, Conoco Philips and Starbucks. Experis, which had only 8,000 professionals in the field a year ago, expects that number to grow to more than 12,000 by the end of 2011. Revenue from Experis has also become a greater proportion of Manpower's overall business in the past six months, according to LeBlanc.

"The companies we work with don't want to hire people full-time, even in C-level positions," said Don Murray, chief executive officer of Resources Global. In an uncertain economy, he explained, employers don't want to commit.

Temps at the FDIC, Bausch & Lomb

Bausch & Lomb has been using Resources Global to augment its legal department for just over a year, said Bob Bailey, vice president and general counsel. "We've brought in lawyers to fill gaps that occur as a result of things like job changes, maternity leave, and spot needs as they occur," he said.

In a reversal of its practice during the savings and loan crisis of the late 1980's, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. has brought in thousands of senior temporary staff to help deal with the surge in bank closings during the recent financial crisis. Many recruits are casualties of those bank closings. More than one-third of the FDIC's 9,000 employees are temporary.

"Instead of hiring permanent staff to deal with bank failures, the FDIC decided to go and hire people on two-, three- and four-year assignments," said Greg Hernandez, an agency spokesman. "These people know up front that it's temporary and that their assignment will end." During the S&L crisis, FDIC headcount peaked at 23,000. When the crisis ended, the agency had to cut back to 4,500.

Acer America Corp., the computer company, has been using senior level temporary staffing for three years and recently began using more such temps in its legal and finance departments. Using a more flexible labor model helps control its biggest cost: employees.

Acer recently increased its reliance on senior level temps within its legal and finance departments. "Right now we have very lean staffing in the law department and this allows us to expand our staffing needs at a moment's notice when we need it," said Teigue Thomas, vice president and general counsel for the company. "We intend to do more of it."

Pay as High as $200,000

Even high-level temps are paid hourly by the staffing firms when out on the job. Resources Global pays an average of $60 an hour, or about $120,000 a year, based on a 40-hour workweek and two weeks of vacation. Experis pays between $40 and $100 an hour, or $80,000 to $200,000 a year. Robert Half Management Resources temps get up to $300,000 a year.

Some staffing firms also pay benefits including funding 401K plans with additional contributions, training, paid vacation and stock options, all perks not normally associated with temporary jobs.

The demand for temporary staff is expected to keep increasing with revenues for all levels of expertise rising by 10% to 12% in 2011 and 6% to 8% in 2012 said BMO Capital Markets staffing analyst Jeff Silber in a December note to investors. As the economy improves and more professionals return to fulltime positions, companies will have to fight harder to recruit top talent.

"We're optimistic," said LeBlanc of Experis. "But I do expect that the candidate's power will increase. It's been a buyer's market [for talent] in the last two or three years. I imagine that leveling off and transitioning in 2011 to a seller's market." He predicts his business will grow by about 20% in 2011.

How to Find a Job

Senior variable staffing firms find talent much like any other firm: job ads, networking groups, LinkedIn and word-of-mouth.

"The number one way is through referrals," said Huron Consulting Group's Mike Draa who heads the firm's accounting advisory practice that provides professional temporary staffing services.

Huron, like the other firms in the market, is on a constant hunt for talent and maintains a database of executives that can be reached when there is a need.

"We literally have thousands of folks that we use throughout the years," said Draa. "That database can meet those needs that are out there."

Many people who work with one of these firms do so because they prefer the lifestyle: choosing assignments, working on short projects with many different companies and in different industries, and having the flexibility to take time off without losing benefits right away.

"There's nothing better than to be able to walk in, do something different, new and be challenged all the time," said Mindy Meyers, a former public accountant who joined Resources Global nine years ago.

Raffia intends to keep on temping for the foreseeable future. "I've had an opportunity to work with many different kinds of folks -- some contemporaries, some peers," he said. "That's what keeps it fresh."

COMMENTARY:   In a blog post dated April 8, 2011, I commented about the growing trend by American employers to hire part-time workers.  America has now become the "Land of the Part-Time Job"  The Great Recession has redefined the workplace.  It has given employers a reason for pause.   The number of part-time workers has been growing steadily since the recession began. There are now over 8 million part-time workers, and this number does not include temp agency and contractors.  What's really ironic is that the Bureau of Labor Statistics counts part-time workers as full-time employed workers.  Go figure.

Contracting is great for retirees.  Many of us never seem to quit, we have too much energy, have too much experience, and we like to keep busy.  I have actually contracted myself out on occasion, but if it gets to be too much like a full-time job, I am out of there.  For this reason, I only do short assignments of one to three months, maximum, or do reviews once a month.  Out-of-town assignments are enjoyable for a while, then you get tired of hotels. The longest contract assignment I ever did was for a year and a half.  They kept throwing money at me, including an apartment and a car, so I stayed, but I was also paying rent back home.  It's a crazy way to make a living.  It's a good way to make some extra coin, see some interesting places, meeting interesting people, and build long-term relationships with clients.  

I have served as a financial advisor on several occasions, but pure accounting does not give me much pleasure.  I did it for 25 years, that's enough debits and credits, which is why I am now a business consultant and financial advisor.  I do know of several individuals who contract themselves out as CFO's.  The pay is pretty darn good, at least $100 per hour.  I ask for $125 and farm out the bookkeeping portion or I advice the client to hire a temporary bookkeeper.  That's a far better use of my time, and clients pay me for my financial expertise, not posting ledgers.  So if you are looking for a business consultant who can double as a CFO and financial advisor, just give me a call.  

The U.S. government is unquestionably the largest employer of temps and contract workers.  They serve in security, communications, intelligence, training, installations plus a whole lot of mundane work.  It is estimated that the Department of Defense spends up to $70 billion for contractors. This includes the four branches of the miltiary and the intelligence community.  Actually if you look at it this way, even military personnel are contractors. They sign an enlistment contract for 2, 3 or 6 years, and they have the option of renewing that contract for another term.  So in that respect all 2.5 million military personnel are contractors. That's $300 billion right there.  Hell, even the President and our elected officials are contractors who serves four or six-year terms. 

If you are a startup, I would strongly recommend you hire interim employees who can wear a lot of different hats.  Hire as many contractors as you can, and only hire them as full-time employees when you are properly funded and can afford to do so.  It's just too risky and you will hate having to lay them off when things go bad.  While we are on the subject, everything is mobile these days, so a virtual office makes a lot of sense.  There are so many different you can collaborate and conduct meetings.  I have met clients in restuarants, hotels, rent-by-the-hour offices and even an airport once.  

Oh, if you have an assignment in Las Vegas, just pay my expenses and get me two tickets for the Playmate of the Year ceremony at the Playboy Club at the Palms on May 5.  I know a VC friend who keeps asking me if anybody has any tickets.   

Courtesy of an article dated April 27, 2011 appearing in The Wall Street Journal 

RAPIDDBUYR STARTS NEW BUSINESS-TO-BUSINESS DAILY DEALS BUSINESS, IT WAS GOING TO HAPPEN SOONER OR LATER

Move over massages, martinis, and manicures. RapidBuyr wants to sell you printers, pens, and PowerPoint. (Yes, we adore alliteration!)

The daily deals moshpit has mostly been a consumer affair so far. But it was probably only a matter of time before it leapt over to the business world. And while business customers (like those guys pictured up top--they look ready to spend!) probably won't be looking for massages, martinis, and manicures--at least not without some pretty creative accounting--RapidBuyr CEO Tom Aley thinks there are nevertheless plenty of products that could catch the eyes of procurement managers at small and medium-sized businesses.

 

RapidBuyr is launching both national and city-based lines, with 40 cities lined up now and, Aley says, as many as 100 by year's end. The startup is teaming up with American City Business Journals--the parent company of city-based publications like Silicon Valley Business Journal and Boston Business Journal--to leverage their sales force and bring vendors on board.

Says Aley about RapidBuyr working American City Business Journals,

"Large companies like Microsoft and HP spend an enormous amount of time trying to find small business people, working with RapidBuyr is going to get them ten to twenty million impressions advertising their product the day they run it."

Yesterday RapidBuyr launched its first deal: five licenses to online backup service MozyPro--a $400 value--for only $199. In the months to come, expect to see offers on everything from computers to accountants to courrier services to cloud-based software.

While procurement managers are notoriously stodgy--hardly the type to leap at the kind of impulse buys that are fueling the consumer deals space--Aley, a former senior vice president at Dow Jones and founding partner at Reed Elsevier Ventures, tells Fast Company he thinks there’s huge opportunity to sell to businesses that know what they need but just haven't pulled the trigger yet. And vendors, he believes, will jump in, if only for the advertising possibilities.

COMMENTARY:   Business-to-business daily deals was going to happen sooner, rather than later. As a former CFO and controller I was always looking for deals on office supplies, computers, office furniture, you name it.  I remember recommending to a former boss to purchase a used trade show exhibit for a dotcom that went bellyup that cost them $100,000+.  We bought it for $7,000 after moving expenses.  It was a killer at the tradeshows where the company exhibited.

Here's How RapidBuyr Works For Merchants

• No Upfront Costs - It costs nothing up-front to run a deal. Every business who runs a deal with us is a partner.  RapidBuyr gets a small cut from every deal made, and our merchants and service providers get the rest. Customers love the great deals. Everyone benefits. RapidBuyr collects the money from customers and mails you your part. RapidBuyr creates the copy.  Merchants submit some upfront information and then, for consistency and to maintain the RapidBuyr identity, RapidBuyr handle all copy, promotional material, call-ots, etc. Once created, of course, RapidBuyr asks Merchants to review it for accuracy. Merchant promotions will generate significantly increased sales volume with same day results. And it will have a viral effect. Just a single day feature will give businesses a huge burst of free advertising and thousands of new customers, at no risk or starting expense to you. Big exposure, new customers, no risk, fast results, nothing up-front.
• Reach The Right Audience - RapidBuyr has partnered with well-known major business publishers to ensure that your promotion will reach millions of business buyers in thousands of businesses nationwide. In addition, our subscriber base is well-connected via social media, extending your deal even further by means of Facebook, Twitter, and other social media avenues.
• Effective and Measurable - Offering a deal through RapidBuyr, will deliver positive measurable results that traditional media can’t begin to approach. After a promotion runs, you will see full-paying, repeat customers and increased sales. RapidBuyr equals efficient, measurable marketing!
  

Here's How RapidBuyr Works For Buyers

• Sign up - Subscribe to RapidBuyr. All you need is an email and a zip code.
• Check out the latest deals - Check your email, Facebook or Twitter feeds for today’s local and nationwide deals.
• Spread the word - When you find a deal that’s particularly excellent, pass the information along to your contacts by email or post it to your social networks.
• Purchase the deal - Click Buy and enter your credit card info. It’s that easy.
• Enjoy the deal’s benefits - Print the coupon and redeem it with the featured business to get your deal. Click the license key or token you receive by email to redeem your deal with a software, SaaS or cloud merchant. Or wait for delivery of the equipment you ordered, which will be shipped by UPS ground within 48 hours of your order.
• Sample deals - RapidBuyr negotiates deeply discounted deals with popular businesses, usually 30-70% off of high-quality goods and services. View sample deals on our sample deals page.
• Offer your own deals - By accessing Merchant Street, you can offer your own deals to fellow RapidBuyr members.

I like the NO UPFRONT COSTS and RapidBuyr only makes money when the deal is sold.  Nice and clean.   The RapidBuyr has an experienced management team and they have some impressive people on their board of directors.  They are accepting employment applications, and the company appears to be funded by insiders, but could not tell for sure.  

I think this is a great idea for a new business venture, and the partnership with American City Business Journals gets them a lot of impressions.  A lot will depend on the perceived value of the deal.  Factors that must be taken into consideration is the brand, quality, durability, design, quantity and of course, price.  Like Groupon and Livingsocial in the business-to-consumer daily deals space, there is going to be competition unless RapidBuyr can develop barriers to entry or other competitive advantages.  There also a lot of large distributors that sell things in bulk to small businesses including Price Club, Office Depot, to name a few.

Hey guys, don't stop there, get on eBay, get national exposure and get even more impressions. Businesses shop there all of the time.  Craigslist maybe another possibility too.  Whatever, I think this new startup is going to be successful if they can execute and move FAST.  There is such a thing as first mover advantages.

Courtesy of an article dated April 28, 2011 appearing in Fast Company

FACEBOOK STAFFERS WANT TO SELL $1 BILLION WORTH OF FACEBOOK STOCK, SALE WOULD VALUE FACEBOOK AT $70 BILLION

 

(Reuters) - A group of Facebook shareholders is seeking to offload $1 billion worth of shares on the secondary market, a sale that would value the company at more than $70 billion, according to five sources with direct knowledge of the situation.

It would represent one of the largest transactions of Facebook shares to date and points to a growing wariness among early-stage investors and employees who fear Facebook's growth cannot keep pace with its market valuation.

The sellers have lowered their price after previously trying to offload shares at a price that valued the company at $90 billion, which would make Facebook more valuable than Time Warner Inc and News Corp combined. But buyers balked.

Sumeet Jain, partner at venture capital firm CMEA Capital, who has examined Facebook deals recently, and has taken a pass, says,

"At the current valuation where it is, it is really hard to justify the investment.   It's hard to imagine it will turn into a $270 billion company in the next few years."

The current deal, which includes stock held by Facebook employees, is awaiting approval from top Facebook executives including Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg and Chief Financial Officer David Ebersman, according to two sources.

Facebook declined to comment.

Investors, ranging from venture capital firms to rich individuals to investment banks, have scrambled to get a piece of the privately held company before its expected IPO next year.

Facebook raised $500 million from Goldman Sachs Group, and Russia's Digital Sky Technologies, for instance, giving it a market value of $50 billion. Weeks later, private equity firm General Atlantic piled into the company, valuing it at $65 billion, according to CNBC.

Tim Draper, the well known venture capital partner who founded Draper Fisher Jurvetson, told Reuters this month he recently looked at buying shares of Facebook deals, but passed because of an unattractive valuation.

One wealthy person, who has fielded calls for the past month involving Facebook pitches in the range of $200 million to $1 billion, and implied that the startup is valued at $90 billion, is also sitting on the sidelines. Says the unnamed individual, 

"It's priced to perfection in the private marketplace. I don't like to own anything I can't sell right now."

Created in a Harvard University dorm room in 2004, Facebook rocketed from an online directory created for college students to the world's No. 1 social network with more than 500 million members worldwide.

The company's astounding growth and popularity have put some of the Internet's biggest guns on notice -- including Google Inc -- and have made it the darling of investors seeking to stake out claims in private companies before they go public.

Facebook, the world's No. 1 Internet social network, earned $355 million in net income in the first nine months of 2010 on revenue of $1.2 billion.

It is one of a handful of Internet companies including Twitter, Groupon and Zynga whose soaring valuations recall the heady days of the late 1990s.

It is questionable whether new investors would realize the exponential growth that early-stage investors got in Facebook, said Oppenheimer & Co managing director Stephen Todd Walker.

That's particularly true, he said, as the company faces more competition abroad from social networking sites like China's Renren Inc, which is expected to go public next week. Says Walker,

"For Facebook, the larger you get, the harder it is to have that explosive growth."

Nonetheless, an array of investors has piled into Facebook. Mutual fund giant T. Rowe Price recently disclosed that several of its funds owned stakes in Facebook, valuing the company at $25 per share, which implies a valuation of $50 billion.

Yet one hedge fund manager who passed on smaller Facebook deals recently said that, for him, the opportunity to get in on the action had passed.  Says the hedge fund manager,

"By the time T. Rowe Price is investing you know it's too late."

COMMENTARY:   If Facebook earned $355 million in net income during the first nine months of 2010, and if you extrapolate, this works out to about $473 million in net income for the full year. Facebook was valued at $50 billion, when Goldman Sachs and Digital Sky Technologies made their investments.  This would mean a multiple of 105 times earnings.  That's so ridiculous it is almost laughable.   If Zuck and his CFO approve the mega $1 billion sale, the new valuation of $70 billion would mean a multiple of 147 times earnings.  Now I am coughing up blood and jealous as hell.

I wholeheartedly agree that Facebook's days of exponential growth are over.  In a blog post dated March 20, 2010, I calculated that Facebook's ad-supported revenue model had reached a critical inflection point around the middle of 2010.    Facebook is no longer growing exponentially in number of users or ad revenues, and moving forward, growth will slow and eventually peak.  I thought the partnership with Baidu to build a new social network site might put it back on a road of exponential growth, but according to rumors, the deal may fall through because of censorship issues. Even if that deal goes through, it will take Facebook at least until 2012 to launch the new site.

Facebook is working feverishly to add new revenue streams beyond commissions on Facebook Credits and advertising.  I see no evidence that Facebook Places, its location-based check-in service is producing meaningful revenues.  In a blog post April 22, 2011, Facebook announced a limited launch of Facebook Deals, a daily deals check-in service that would compete against Groupon and LivingSocial, Google Offers and other daily deal offerings.  The problem will be execution and Facebook has to overcome learning curve issues, hire new staffers familiar with promotional offers, and expand its sales force rapidly in order to increase revenues.  Several social media guru's are proclaiming this will be a golden goose egg for Facebook.  For several reasons I tend to disagree, because it is too early to predict such things. 

In a letter to its 50,000 wealthy investors dated January 14, 2011, SecondMarket, the private company stock brokerage firm for Facebook shares, indicated that the new per share price was $28.26 based its auction of January 12, 2011, and that it had traded a total of 2,721,265 Facebook shares.  The last auction had set Facebook's valuation at $70 billion.

Until its recent launch of Facebook Deals, nothing else of any significance had occurred, so it's safe to say that the $70 billion is a good valuation, but in several blog posts, I have been fairly vocal about the lack of a quantitative business valuation that discounts future cash flows to take into account risk and uncertainty, rather than just basing everything on future potential.  For a startup like Facebook, which has some of the lowest revenues per unique user when compared to other technology companies, the risk is much higher because advertising revenues are not predictable. Facebook investors have an infactuation with Facebook's bigness and buying is stock is spurred by a lot of hype, euphoria and whole lot of greed.

I have to admit I am amazed there are so many potential investors waiting in line to get their hands on a piece of Facebook.  It would be a coup if anybody knew the exact details of the latest $1 billion sale. How many seller's are there in total and how many are Facebook staffers.  I have this feeling that Facebook's per share price has peaked at $28.26, and maybe its a good time to get out, while the getting is good.

Courtesy of an article dated April 27, 2011 appearing in Reuters 

 

 

INSIDE THE NATIONAL SECURITY AGENCY (NSA): THE SUPER-SECRET INTELLIGENCE AGENCY THAT CAN BREAK ANY CODE

The National Security Agency Central Security Service or just NSA, is located at Fort Meade, Maryland and was formed in 1952.  The NSA is unquestionably the most secretive security agency in the U.S. government.  The NSA's headquarters is located about 15 mi (24 km) southwest of Baltimore, Maryland.  The NSA has its own exit off Maryland Route 295 South and is labeled "NSA Employees Only."  The scale of the operations at the NSA is hard to determine from unclassified data; some 18,000 parking spaces are visible in photos of the site.

NSA goes by the nickname, "No Such Agency".   The NSA's annual spending budget is highly classified and is "buried" in the Department of Defense's annual spending budget, but by some estimates now approaches $20 billion annually. The NSA is directed by at least a Army lieutenant general or Navy vice-admiral.   The present Director of the NSA is U.S. Army General Keith B. Alexander.  He is also Commander, U.S. Cyber Command or CyberSecurity, which protects us against cyber attacks, and which I profiled back on February 7, 2011.

NSA's work is limited to communications intelligence; it does not perform field or human intelligence (spying on people) activities. By law, NSA's intelligence gathering is limited to foreign communications, although incidents such as the NSA warrantless surveillance controversy have occurred.  NSA has the ability to spy on any individual, organization, business or government agency (foreign or domestic) and has done so 24/7, 365. 

The NSA is a cryptologic intelligence agency and specializes in "signal intelligence" or code breaking.  They can intercept any electronic signal, in any form, frequency or language, encrypted or non-encrypted.  They can eavesdrop on anybody, even listen to conversations through brick walls.  Yes, they even listened to Osama Bin Ladin's satellite phone conversations when he was hiding out in Tora Bora, and they could be listening to you right now.  Their website says,

"Our Signals Intelligence mission collects, processes, and disseminates intelligence information from foreign signals for intelligence and counterintelligence purposes and to support military operations. This Agency also enables Network Warfare operations to defeat terrorists and their organizations at home and abroad, consistent with U.S. laws and the protection of privacy and civil liberties.The U.S. intelligence community operates a virtual shadow government consisting of thousands of private contractors.  The use of private contractors  has ballooned, growing from a mere two dozen plus contractors in the 1990’s to over 5,400 in 2008.  It's probably 6,000 by now.  It has been estimated that 70% of the intelligence budget are private contractors."

The NSA conducts its signal intelligence gathering through a network of highly sophisticated, state-of-the-art and classified sea, air and land-based signal interception stations and satellites known as ECHELON. The following map details the global distribution and shear scale of ECHELON.

According to Echelon.org, ECHELON is perhaps the most powerful intelligence gathering organization in the world. Several credible reports suggest that this global electronic communications surveillance system presents an extreme threat to the privacy of people all over the world. According to these reports, ECHELON attempts to capture staggering volumes of satellite, microwave, cellular and fiber-optic traffic, including communications to and from North America. This vast quantity of voice and data communications are then processed through sophisticated filtering technologies.

This massive surveillance system apparently operates with little oversight. Moreover, the agencies that purportedly run ECHELON have provided few details as to the legal guidelines for the project. Because of this, there is no way of knowing if ECHELON is being used illegally to spy on private citizens.

Your tax dollars go to finance the NSA's ultra-secret activities so it's my job to inform you about these punks. Bring it.   The Discovery Channel did an excellent documentary about the history of the NSA and their ultra-secret eavesdropping activities.

  

  

 

 

 

If you visit the NSA's website and click ABOUT NSA, this is what it says:

"The National Security Agency/Central Security Service (NSA/CSS) is home to America's codemakers and codebreakers. The National Security Agency has provided timely information to U.S. decision makers and military leaders for more than half a century. The Central Security Service was established in 1972 to promote a full partnership between NSA and the cryptologic elements of the armed forces.

NSA/CSS is unique among the U.S. defense agencies because of our government-wide responsibilities. NSA/CSS provides products and services to the Department of Defense, the Intelligence Community, government agencies, industry partners, and select allies and coalition partners. In addition, we deliver critical strategic and tactical information to war planners and war fighters.

By its very nature, what NSA/CSS does as a key member of the Intelligence Community requires a high degree of confidentiality. Our Information Assurance mission confronts the formidable challenge of preventing foreign adversaries from gaining access to sensitive or classified national security information. Our Signals Intelligence mission collects, processes, and disseminates intelligence information from foreign signals for intelligence and counterintelligence purposes and to support military operations. This Agency also enables Network Warfare operations to defeat terrorists and their organizations at home and abroad, consistent with U.S. laws and the protection of privacy and civil liberties.

NSA/CSS exists to protect the Nation. Our customers know they can count on us to provide what they need, when they need it, wherever they need it."

Courtesy of an article dated April 26, 2011 appearing in UFO Briefcase, Wikipedia, Echelon.org and the National Security Agency Central Security Service and the Discovery Channel

 

 

NSA RELEASES DOCUMENT CONFIRMING CONTACT WITH EXTRA-TERRESTRIALS BACK IN 1957

On October 21, 2004, the NSA approved for release to the public a portion of their NSA Journal Vol. XIV No. 1.  This is a report of a presentation given to the NSA by Dr. Howard Campaigne regarding the decoding of extraterrestrial messages that had been received “form outer space”.  Apparently, these messages had actually been received via the Sputnik satellite, but no one had any idea how to decode them at the time.

At some time, unspecified in the document, Dr. Howard  Campaigne and some other NSA super mathematicians in the crypto department had been given the task of decoding the messages.  There were a total of 29 messages to be decoded—quite an undertaking.

It is curious, to say the least, that this document was cleared for release on October 21, 2004.  Why was that?  Because the NSA did not release it into public information until April 21, 2011.  Though cleared for release, the NSA had been stonewalling it along with hundreds of other NSA documents about contact with UFOs and extraterrestrials until they lost the lawsuit brought by Peter Gersten, a lawyer from Arizona.  When they well and truly lost, the judge’s order had to be carried out, and the documents had to be released.

 Dr. Howard  Campaigne's “ExtraterrestrialSignals”

The document, as I stated, is Dr. Campaigne’s presentation to the NSA on the decoding of those messages.  It was actually published by the NSA in their own internal NSA Journal.  Yet, they were also forced to publish a list of search terms from FOIA requests for which they had found no NSA documents.  In that list is “Extraterrestrial Signals”.  The title of this document, which they published themselves is “Key To Extraterrestrial Messages”. 

Quite obviously, they conveniently split hairs here in reporting they had no information about “Extraterrestrial Signals”.  They knew for sure they had this document, and that it was about what was being requested in the FOIA request.  They knew it, flaunted the technicality of wording, and continued to stonewall.

Who is Dr. Howard Campaigne?

Dr. Campaigne is one of the top cryptologists on the planet with years and years of service to Naval Security Group, Army Security Agency, National Security Agency, and a couple of other such alphabet organizations. 

Howard H. Campaigne started his crypto career for the government  during World War II and has been a key and integral part of our U.S. security and intelligence ever since.  In other words, he is part of a very small, very select group who are considered the cream of the crop in Cryptology.

Dr. Campaigne’s presentation to the NSA on decoding the extraterrestrial messages was not a hypothetical exercise.  I contacted someone who is formerly associated with the NSA and still has TS clearance, and asked him to view the document.  I asked him to give me his take on it.  There was no question about its authenticity since it was published in the NSA Journal, and was released by the NSA on their web site.   What I wanted to know was whether this document had any particular impact or importance (other than its startling revelations) for someone familiar with the inner workings of the NSA.  It did.

My contact told me that he was blown away by the wording of the document.  He said that NSA communications are filled with words like “possibly” , “allegedly”, and “thought to be”.  He said,

“This document has none of the normal NSA disclaimer words in it.  They just come out and say ‘we received messages from outer space’ and this is the way to decode those messages.”

I asked, “What does that mean to you?”

His reply was instant.

“Disclosure, pure and simple.  They aren’t making any fanfare about it, but there it is.  They have just made open disclosure.”

But what do the messages say?

Dr. Campaigne focused on a set of information in a couple of the messages that turn out to be some mathematical equations.  They also contain the listing of all the chemical elements in the Periodic Table.  Says Dr. Campaigne,  

"I suppose those equations may make some sense to a physicist or engineer, but do not mean anything to me.  I clearly understand how Dr. Campaigne came to the translation since he explains it very well.  But, as to what the meaning of the equations are, I could not venture a guess."

It is curious, though, that during his presentation Dr. Campaigne mentions there are “words” that they have translated, and some “words” they have not yet begun to understand.  He gives an example of a connective word that he knows is connective (joining two or more statements) but does not yet understand the translation of that word.

Debunkers are scared as hell of the release of this information as it proves beyond any doubt that they are, and always have been, dead wrong.  Their careers as debunkers are finished in light of the revelation of this material.  They are already using the only possible “tool” left to them by saying, “That’s old information.  It’s been out there for years.”

As usual, they are either just uninformed, or outright lying.  It is true the document was cleared for release on October 21, 2004.  It is true that date is from “years”.  But it is also true that it WAS NOT released until April 21, 2011.   

"No, Virginia, that information has not been available for years." 

Researching this development for my show,  I have found a great deal of other information that constitutes what most people would call open disclosure. 

This is truly blockbuster information.  No one from the government has stepped in front of the cameras and come clean about ET reality as yet.   But, here we have the most secret intelligence organization in the U.S.A. , the National Security Agency, disclosing openly that there has been contact with intelligent extraterrestrials.   Not only that, we have decoded their messages.

Want to read the document for yourself?  Here it is. 

When you open the page, look at the address in your browser. 

The following video is a compilation of interviews of some very distinguished individuals from the intelligence, military and scientific community who have given testimony of the existence of extra-terrestrials.  

 

Want to read the document for yourself?  Here it is. 

When you open the page, look at the address in your browser. 

Courtesy of an article dated April 26, 2011 appearing in Before It's News

A SMARTPULSE POLL CONFIRMS THAT VERY FEW PEOPLE ARE USING LOCATION-BASED SOCIAL NETWORKS ALL THE TIME

SmartPulse — our weekly nonscientific reader poll in SmartBrief on Social Media — tracks feedback from leading marketers about social media practices and issues.

Last week’s poll question: Do you check in with location-based social tools (such as Facebook Places, Foursquare, etc.) when you are out and about?

• Never — 56.00%
• Frequently — 13.54%
• Sometimes — 11.69%
• Rarely — 10.46%
• All the time — 8.31%

One article after another argues that location-based social tools are the hottest trend, but I am not convinced. I was starting to wonder if I was one of the very few not using location-based tools to check in when I am traveling or running around town. What a relief it was to see these results, which confirm that I am not alone.

I now know I am part of the majority and the 56% of SmartBrief on Social Media readers who said they never use these tools. Certainly, I see the hype and rapid growth around the location-based segment, but I am not quite sure if these tools are as popular as some people suggest.

According to November 2010 research paper from the Pew Internet & American Life Project, just 4% of online Americans use location-based services such as Foursquare or Gowalla. I am sure this number has increased since the study, but I still think relatively few have taken up social location-based social tools. I am also not sure we can say that location-based platforms like Foursquare are tried and proven as marketing tools, but that probably deserves another poll.

Aside from knowing how these tools work as a part my business, I personally think it is a waste of time for me to check-in every time I am out and about. If I ever decide to use these tools, it would be more like checking out instead of checking in for the sake of privacy issues. In addition from privacy, I don’t want my twitter feed and Facebook news feed to be flooded with real-time location updates. I know I am also not alone with this one.

It would be great to hear from poll respondents on how they truly feel about these tools. If you’ve never used location-based tools, what’s your reason for using them? And, if you use them frequently, what motivates you to do so?

COMMENTARY:  People need to WANT to be tracked, and let others know where they are.  The LBSN business model says "use me to find places to buy things and make friends with people who shop at those places" when there are so many other options for making friends and buying things. LBSN's are social networks on sterioids, taking the tracking element to an extreme.  I just don't think that people wish to be tracked to that degree.  The privacy and stalking issues are deal breakers for LBSN's. Females are simply afraid of being stalked.  I have heard females call LBSN's "creepy", "intrusive" and even "dangerous".  I think you get the picture.

Badoo, an online dating social networks combines both social networking, online dating and location-based tracking to enhance the overall user experience.   Badoo has been able to incorporate a mobile location-based app to help its members locate members of the opposite sex and new friends living close to them.  That is a great example of location-based tool filling a real need.    

Courtesy of an article dated April 27, 2011 appearing in Smartblog on Social Media

SHOULD YOU BUY A HOME IN 2011--25 REASONS WHY YOU SHOULDN'T

 

Has the U.S. housing market reached a "bottom" yet?  Are home prices going to start recovering?  Is the housing crisis going to end at some point?  Today there are millions of American families that would like to buy homes but they are not sure what to do.  After all, nobody wants to end up like all the suckers that bought at the top of the market and now owe far more on their mortgages then their homes are worth.  A lot of people are really afraid to take out home loans right now.  So should you buy a home in 2011?  That is a very good question.  The reality is that there are a lot of reasons why home prices could continue to fall.  Unemployment is still rampant, and American families simply cannot afford to buy homes without good jobs.  Also, lending institutions have really, really tightened lending standards.  That is really restricting the number of buyers in the marketplace.  The number of foreclosures set another record high last year so there are a ton of homes that need to be sold and not a lot of demand for them.  So with all of these factors working against the real estate market, are there any reasons why anyone would actually want to buy a home in 2011?

Well, yes there are.  The truth is that all of the reckless money printing that the Federal Reserve has been doing and all of the insane borrowing that the U.S. government has been doing have flooded our financial system with new dollars.  At some point all of these new dollars are going to cause a tremendous amount of inflation.

Right now we are seeing the price of gas go up and the price of food go up, but eventually the price of everything (including housing) will go up.

When the U.S. economy totally collapses, you are going to want to have your housing expenses locked in.  In a highly inflationary environment you may find that your wages do not keep up with inflation and at some point you may be unable to afford to buy any kind of a decent house at all.  If you are renting, you may have to deal with rent increase after rent increase.

The best way to avoid housing inflation when it comes will be to own your own home and have a mortgage with a fixed interest rate.  But the timing is key.  You don't want to buy that home too early and you don't want to buy that home too late.

So when will the exact "right" time be?

That is very hard to say.

However, to give us all some numbers to think about, the following are 29 absolutely crazy statistics about the housing crisis that show just how nightmarish the U.S. housing market is right now....

1. During the first three months of this year, less new homes were sold in the U.S. than in any three month period ever recorded.
2. Home prices just keep falling month after month.  The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller 20-city index has fallen for seven months in a row.
3. U.S. home prices have now declined 32% from the peak of the housing bubble.
4. In Phoenix, Arizona home prices are now down 56% from the peak of the housing bubble.
5. Home prices in Las Vegas, Nevada are now down 58% from the peak of the housing bubble.
6. Nearly 70 percent of all Las Vegas mortgages are now underwater.
7. Due to the housing crisis, there are now more than 167,000 vacant homes in the state of Nevada.
8. It is estimated that 25% of all mortgages in Miami-Dade County are "in serious distress and headed for either foreclosure or short sale".
9. According to a recent census report, 13% of all homes in the United States are sitting empty.
10. 10 According to the U.S. Census Bureau, 18 percent of all homes in the state of Florida are sitting vacant.  That number is 63 percent larger than it was just ten years ago.
11. In the city of Detroit alone, there are more than 33,000 abandoned homes.
12. The average home in the city of Merced, California has declined in value by 63 percent over the past four years.
13. U.S. home values have fallen an astounding 6.3 trillion dollars since the housing crisis first began.
14. California had more foreclosure filings that any other U.S. state during 2010.  The 546,669 total foreclosure filings during the year means that over 4 percent of all the housing units in the state of California received a foreclosure filing at some point during 2010.
15. Total home mortgage debt in the United States is now about 5 times larger than it was just 20 years ago.
16. Approximately 26 percent of all renters in the United States spend more than half their pre-tax income on rent.
17. It is estimated that 49 percent of all American renters are paying out more in rent than they can afford.
18. In 1996, 89 percent of Americans believed that it was better to own a home than to rent one.  Today that number has fallen to 63 percent.
19. 72 percent of the major metropolitan areas in the United States had more foreclosures in 2010 than they did in 2009.
20. Two years ago, the average U.S. homeowner that was being foreclosed upon had not made a mortgage payment in 11 months.  Today, the average U.S. homeowner that is being foreclosed upon has not made a mortgage payment in 17 months.
21. In September 2008, 33 percent of Americans knew someone who had been foreclosed upon or who was facing the threat of foreclosure.  Today that number has risen to 48 percent.
22. During the month of January, it was estimated that there were 1.8 million distressed homes in the United States that had yet to be listed for sale.  Many analysts believe that this "shadow inventory" will extend the housing crisis for several more years.
23. In February, U.S. housing starts experienced their largest decline in 27 years.
24. Now home sales in the United States are now down 80% from the peak in July 2005.
25. Bank repossessions and short sales now make up approximately 30 percent of all home sales in the United States.
26. As of the end of 2010, new home sales in the United States had declined for five straight years, and they are expected to be lower once again in 2011.
27. 31 percent of the homeowners that responded to a recent Rasmussen Reports survey indicated that they are "underwater" on their mortgages.
28. Deutsche Bank is projecting that 48 percent of all U.S. mortgages could have negative equity by the end of 2011.
29. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, at least 8 million Americans are currently at least one month behind on their mortgage payments.

COMMENTARY:   On February 24, 2010, I predicted a second real estate bubble to occur in mid-2010, but that never happened for various reasons, although foreclosures for 2010 set a new record.   On December 28, 2010, several real estate experts, including me,  predicted a real estate bubble to occur in 2011.    

After reading the above article, I think it's safe to say that 2011 is most definitely NOT a good time to buy a home, although the Fed's radical use of quantitative easing, has the potential create a number of economic problems, not just inflation.  However, if you are ready, willing and financially able to purchase a home, look into foreclosed homes.  There's a ton of them.  To help you in your quest, check out RealtyTrac's Interactive Foreclosure Map:

Courtesy of an article 26, 2011 appearing in The American Dream and RealtyTrac

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