FACEBOOK REACHING MAX PENETRATON IN U.S., GROWING INTERNATIONALY, WILL DEFINITELY NOT HIT 1 BILLION USERS IN 2011

It comes as no surprise that Facebook appears to be reaching saturation in its country of origin, as the massive social network now counts just over half the U.S. population as members. But this slowing growth rate makes it all the more urgent that Facebook monetize its existing audience more effectively, especially if it is to support the huge valuations assigned by analysts and private investors.

There has been an unmistakable drop-off in the number of new members added by Facebook beginning last fall: from August 2010-January 2011, in the U.S. Facebook has grown from 148 million to 153 million unique visitors, according to comScore, for an average rate of increase of about one million per month. True, there have been slow periods in the fall and winter seasons in the past -- but this time around is even slower. From August 2009-January 2011, it grew from 92.2 million to 112.4 million, adding 20.2 million new visitors, or just over four million per month.

Looking at the full year, Facebook added new visitors at an average rate of about 4.8 million per month in 2009; in 2010 that slowed to 3.5 million per month, and 2010 is off to a pretty weak start with a drop of 0.9 million unique visitors in January (the second time Facebook has ever posted a decrease in month-to-month figures for unique visitors -- the first time was February 2010, when it fell 0.4 million, also according to comScore).

Put another way, from January-June 2009, Facebook added 19.8 million unique visitors; from July-December 2009, it added 24.3 million; from January-June 2010, it added 29.2 million; but from July-December 2010, it added just 8.4 million.

On the positive side, Facebook's is still growing by leaps and bounds overseas: from January- December 2010, Facebook's total non-U.S. membership grew from about 250 million to about 500 million, increasing roughly 100% (compared to a U.S. growth rate of 37% over the same period).

COMMENTARY:   It's a pretty well known fact that Facebook's U.S. penetration is very close to peaking or has peaked and they will be entering a period of very slow growth in new members and unique visitors.  Most of their growth is now being driven by other countries.    

I wrote about Facebook's Top 10 growth markets in a previous blog post dated September 5, 2010 titled, "Facebook's Top Ten Growth Markets For New Members" and recently posted another article dated February 5, 2011 titled,  "Facebook Will Capture 67% of Global Social Media Revenues in 2011, But Can It Reach 1 Billion Members?"   In both articles, I pointed out that membership growth in the U.S. , where Facebook first started, was reaching maximum penetration.  The same is true of the U.K. and Canada.  

Facebook's current growth is being driven primarily by Asian countries, but Facebook has made little progress in penetrating India, Korea and Japan, where its penetration is in the low single digits.  I have written about this before, but most of the blame falls on Facebook itself,  there is a wide cultural divide and user experience issues that Facebook can't seem surmount.    China has banned Facebook, but there is no guarantee that it will gain traction there, even if the doors were open.

Across the five Southeast Asian markets of Indonesia, The Philippines, India, Malaysia and Thailand, there are close to 85 million registered Facebook users, given that there were a shade over 110 registered users across the whole of Asia on 1 January 2011, according to Social Media Today, South East Asia has emerged as the dominant force for growth across the continent with the five biggest SE Asian countries seeing almost 150% growth collectively in 2010 and a staggering 2,404% increase in members since January 2008.

The total number of social network users is a finite number, and Facebook, as well as other social network sites like Twitter, will be reaching a critical inflection point, where the user penetration finally peaks and advertising revenues stop growing.   I am writing a future piece about this eventuality.  

China has banned all social networks, and if China continues to ban Facebook from entering their market, the inflection point will materialize a lot sooner.   The wildcard is still China, but I believe that even if the doors were opened for Facebook, they would struggle like they have in other Asian countries like India, Japan and South Korea, where their market penetration is in the low single digits.   That's not a good sign. 

Having said this, Facebook's user growth rates are already steeply declining.  I have estimated that Facebook will have 775 million users by the end of 2011, and it is definitely tracking that way with 29 million new users in the first two months of 2011.  Other social mdia experts believe Facebook will reach 1 billion users by the end of 2011, but I believe that Facebook will not reach that magic number until at least 2014 or 2015.  If you believe otherwise, please comment below.     

Courtesy of an article dated March 3, 2011 appearing in MediaPost Publications The Social Graf 

By TwitterButtons.com 

Comments

[Ciprianojr Demecillo Capote]

The issue of Facebook reached tons of user and advertize in the market is great many people could be share both good News and the Bad News many user was step up out the internet FB many user are struggled their account was compromised from other user and if they found back again their account isn't the same as we expect the beauty on the time was change feature like pornography photos and Videos.
My comments to our Facebook user let us make our Facebook one of the Best website in our time.

[Emmett]

Quality content is the main to interest the users to go to see the web site,
that's what this web site is providing.

[car restoration]

Today i can't imagine how big it is

[Tommy]

John, thank you for the nice compliment. I try to keep things lively, insert humor, controversy, some bravado at times, and write on serious issues. when there is a herd mentality to go one way, sometimes, I go the opposite way.

[thermage Brisbane]

I wanted to thank for this great read!I really enjoyed reading. One of the more impressive blogs Ive seen. Thanks so much for keeping the internet classy for a change. You have got style, class, bravado. I mean it. Please keep it up because without the internet is definitely lacking in intelligence.

[romscooca]

2011 50 percent sporting eye-catching efficiency: expanding brands like as toread
As of August 31, 2011.5 release total 12 months annual reports of detailed businesses in Shanghai and Shenzhen. According to the China Securities News and stats inside the knowledge center, there were two,244 listed businesses in Shanghai and Shenzhen disclosure half yr report, which listed organizations complete revenues 拢 ten.thirteen trillion, an increase of twenty five.78%; accomplish the net gain attributable towards the shareholders of listed organizations of 994.33 billion yuan, an increase of 22.31%; earnings per share amounted to 拢 0.28.
锟斤拷锟斤拷Where outfits detailed organization a functionality considered one of largest progress plates, 77 disclosure 50 percent yr report detailed textile and garment business in 2011 half net earnings totaling $ 6.twelve billion, rose 71.77%. In accordance to one more report on haitong securities present, apparel and textile marketplace total beneficial, brand name corporations, model hometextile, outdoor sports activities and fashion informal model organization with outstanding business expansion in profits, 48.06% and 44.71% respectively. Consolidated gross margin of 23.61%, 2.32% more than 21.29% from the identical period of time very last yr. Expense of product sales ratio of 10.84%, for pretty much 3-year substantial, soaring labor expenditures significantly. Brand Enterprise general operation additional strong, but inventory management much less than very last year.
锟斤拷锟斤拷Clothing sector as being a entire condition consistent with expectations, brand garments industry showed more rapidly product sales profits and profit growth. This period of time these kinds of as men's wear, outside and children's use business outlined organization associates, continued to analyse its results with the initial half of 2011, therefore assisting extra apparel enterprises greater fully grasp the present predicament with the sector. Youngor: far more centered model clothing marketplace
锟斤拷锟斤拷The to begin with 50 % of 2011, youngor revenues 拢 five.39 billion, representing a development of 0.71%; propelled by major boost in investment salary, net revenue rose $ 44.14% to $. Amongst them, branded apparel business enterprise operational money two.964 billion yuan, representing a development of 3.67% net income rose to 拢 23.88% to 拢. Residence improvement fell 82.3% in net revenue to $ 34 million, financial investments net profit amounting to 拢 390 million, an increase of 680%. Period, youngor adjusting industry construction, by offering subsidiaries their garments team (our) Limited (total price 拢 70 million eighty million pounds transfer value), additional scaled back again OEM business design and style, RD, manufacturing, deal with sources emphasis on domestic manufacturers of outfits business enterprise. Brand name apparel domestic product sales revenue amounted to $ 1.895 billion, a rise of 26.43%, gross margin amounted to 65.21%.
锟斤拷锟斤拷At precisely the same time, youthful make efforts to regulate the channel structure, insist on multi-branding, enhanced concentration of buying mall progress and proprietary retailers, a further contraction in more compact proprietary stores and franchise outlets. As of June thirty, 2011, the youthful have retail outlets two,161, with proprietary brand name shops and searching malls counters very last 80% proportion, over-all retail store efficiency to ten,one hundred Yuan/square meter. On top of that, youngor actively discover new manufacturers of network product sales model, now Taobao Mall opened CEO, GY brand flagship retail outlet. According to the network distribution sector survey of CEO branding internet marketing client, 90% order from no bodily retailers, on-line revenue are becoming handy addition of retailer profits channels.
锟斤拷锟斤拷Pathfinder: exact model positioning greatly enhance effectiveness
锟斤拷锟斤拷The first fifty percent of 2011, Pathfinder running revenue of 拢 249 million, an increase of 61.89%; working profit and net revenue respectively $ 51.4564 million and $, up expansion and 86.39%, respectively. Since the key small business improvement effectively, the marketplace has become expanding as well as the 2011 products reservation very well in autumn and winter season, the company expects net profit in January-September per cent, to 50%~100%.
锟斤拷锟斤拷Among them, outside clothes and outside footwear gross revenue margin respectively over exactly the same period of time greater three and 2.24, out of doors devices gross margin more than precisely the same period previous 1.43%. Working earnings inside the region are reaching a lot quicker expansion in several regions, in southern China to 134.84% per cent, of which getting the. Abroad marketplace enhancement is unsatisfactory, earnings fell 63.61%.
锟斤拷锟斤拷The reporting period of time, the company continues to strengthen channel growth, along with a concentrate on combining the breadth and depth on the channel, consolidating and improving upon the core and also the level of industry penetration, speed up producing the secondary industry, go on to enhance secondary marketplace protection. The initial half of 2011, open up store 183 NET, a net boost of immediate retailer 35, shop 148, somme number of suppliers reached 849. Meanwhile aim on improving very good management, enhancing one keep profitability. Store with the business information and facts coverage had reached 76.56%, increasing supply chain management abilities.
锟斤拷锟斤拷While, the organization continued optimization products homework and enhancement and layout process, suit market place and shopper of variances of desire, reasonable considering "EX-HERO peak hero", and "TRAVELAX travel life", and "VINTAGE purpose leisure", items collection of purpose sexual attributes and target consumption groups positioning, meet different variety buyer of subdivision demand. other than mountaineering, and on foot, and ski, and camping, relative expert of space zhiwai, the company is now has be aware to light skilled stage of fishing, and photography, and Vigorous progress with the tourism and also other activities, which will give complete interest for the trends and adjustments in desire, timely start correct outside residing brand names.

http://www.outletspyderstore.com>spyder jacket sale http://www.outletspyderstore.com>spyder sale

[twitter marketing]

I actually own a small business, and it seems to me that buying fans actually has benefited my business. I purchased 5,000 fans from fanbullet.com and after that my fan base grew by itself. I didn't have to do anything. I saw an increase in sales as well. So I believe is actually worth it. Hope this helps someone.