Still don't think the iPad is an absolutely earth-shaking blockbuster hit?
Apple is gearing up to sell 45 million of them next year, says Ticonderoga Securities analyst Brian White who just chatted with supply-chain vendors in China and Taiwan (via Elizabeth Woyke at Forbes).
A couple of months ago, we mentioned that hedge-fund manager Jeff Matthews expected Apple to eventually sell 50 million iPads a year--a forecast that, in some corners, was greeted with howls of derision. Based on this latest news, it seems like the 50-million year may come sooner than expected.
45 million iPads, by the way, is about $30 billion of revenue. To put that in perspective, that's almost as much revenue as the entire company generated in 2008. Not bad for a product that didn't exist six months ago.
And, of course, the iPad's explosive launch isn't just turbocharging Apple. It's shaking the foundations of the entire global PC industry.
Goldman Sachs, which has been bullish on Microsoft for most of the 25 years since it took the company public, just pulled the plug on the stock.
One reason for this?
iPad cannibalization.
COMMENTARY: I would first like to know how many of them suckers Apple is going to sell in 2010. Apparently Apple is getting ready to announce some pretty impressive iPad sales numbers, rumored to be at a 4.5 million per quarter clip. Whether they will hit Steve Jobs goal of 10 million units sold for 2010 still remains to be seen. More power to him, if he can hit that number.
Bernstein Research puts iPad unit sales for the 3rd quarter 2010 at 4.5 million units. Apple claimed they sold 3+ million iPads in the 2nd quarter, so year-to-date, 7.5 million have been sold according to Bernstein. If they continue at the 4 to 4.5 million unit run rate for the 4th quarter, Bernstein believes that Apple will sell about 11.7 million units in 2010. First, let's wait for the official numbers from Apple.
These predictions that Apple will sell 45 million iPads in 2011 are difficult to believe. Just how many consumers will buy a new iPad and iPhone when the consumer electronics industry is coming out with new HD 3D televisions and a ton of new tablet PC's from Samsung, Microsoft, RIM Blackberry and others. $30 billion in revenues for a single product is hard to believe. Makes you wonder if the tablet PC is "the" device and just how large the total market for tablet pc's will be when you combine total tablet pc revenues. Is it 100 million? It's just crazy.
Steve apparently believes that the iPad is ready for the mainstream market, or the "middle market" that represents roughly 70% of total buyers for a new product. The iPad and iPod are both being sold by Target, and its rumored that the iPad will be available at Wal-Mart. However, I am a bit skeptical whether distributing the iPad through mass retail discounters is going to work out in the end. I don't see any evidence that prices for Apple's stuff is being discounted, something you expect from a chain like Target, and most especially from Wal-Mart (when they get the iPad). The lowest price iPad at Target is going for $599 (I assume this is the WIFI version) and the G4 model is $899. This is at the very high-end of the price range for the typical Target store customer.
Before we takes these lofty sales predictions made by these overzealous "experts" from Wall Street too seriously, let's first find out if the iPad is really ready for prime time. There is a huge difference between buying an Apple product at an Apple Store and your typical Target store. The day I was there, there was only one clerk manning the counter. Not your Apple Store sales experience we read about. This leaves me wondering about execution. Poor distribution execution can often doom an excellent product. Google's Nexus One is a very good example.
Courtesy of an article dated October 7, 2010 appearing in the Silicon Alley Business Insider
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