ELECTRIC VEHICLES ARE COMING SOON, BUT IS THE INFRASTRUCTURE AND CONSUMERS READY?

The electric car is coming, but are consumers and the power infrastructure rolling out the welcome mat?

That question has been academic until now, as some 30 electric vehicles will enter the market in the next 18 to 24 months -- including cars from niche players like Coda and Tesla, and those from major brands like Nissan and Chevrolet. The latter on Friday sponsored a panel at Columbia University's engineering school to bat the question around, using the venue to show off the Chevy Volt plug-in electric car. One of the cars, going on sale this year, was parked on the main quadrangle.

The time -- the day after the launch of Earth Week -- and the place -- New York City -- were relevant for the discussion. The city, developers, ConEd, and automakers are trying to dream up a charging infrastructure that makes such cars appealing to consumers, about 16% of whom say they are willing to buy electric cars in New York.

Lawrence Burns, former VP of research and development at General Motors, one of the panelists, said "range anxiety" is probably the greatest barrier to consumer acceptance of electric cars -- something Chevy is hoping to ameliorate with its vehicle. The Volt is designed to go 40 miles on a charged battery, after which an onboard gasoline generator kicks in to power the battery. "Consumers don't want to make a trade-off on convenience, safety, security and time," he said. "They do not want to be inconvenienced because they don't have sufficient vehicle range on a charge. They don't want to be stranded somewhere."

Burns said any revolution in individual transportation must involve innovations beyond those pertaining to drive-train technology. He says urban transport must finally include "mobility Internet" where digitally connected cars communicate with each other, and with their environment and are thereby able to guide themselves to avoid collisions. "We will see vehicles that don't crash or run into people and objects, that can drive themselves so that texting won't be an issue. Most would conclude that driving is, in fact, the distraction -- not texting."

The company will show an example of this -- what it sees as the next iteration of urban mobility -- at the Shanghai "Better City Better Life" World Expo next month, featuring a 750-pound Segway-type electric vehicle for two people.

Panelist Tony Posawatz, vehicle line director for Chevy Volt, said that the price for the new Volt, not officially announced, will be "a little more than a comparable compact car," less than $30,000 for the basic model.

COMMENTARY:  I didn't realize that the number of new EV models was up to 30.  Man, with those kind of numbers, there is going to be a quick shakeout.  I am betting on the big automakers, either US or Japan to take the lions share of the market.  

I think the big automakers are waiting to see how Fisker Automotive and Tesla Motors do with their sports EV's,  Although Tesla Motors is coming out with a sedan, the price of $44,000 is bit up there for my money.  Tesla has a legup on Fisker Automotive.  The latter has received over 3000 deposits for delivery  of their cars in 2011 or 2012.  Gee, that's a long time to wait.  But, I do like their designs.

I totally agree that range is going to be what sells these cars.  The prices do have to come down, and GM's Volt at $30,000 sounds like a good bet.

However, there are to big problems:  

• EV battery technology has got to make a quantum leap forward. A real game changer.  A 40-100 mile range is just not enough, unless you are driving close to home.  On long drives, this simply won't work. 
• Electrical charging stations (ECS) need to be built, and they have to be convenient to EV car buyers or this market is going to grow very slowly. Nobody wants to run out of juice on a long trip.

Just how many consumers will fork up the doe for these new EV's remains to be seen.  Toyota Prius, the popular electrical hybrid car, has shown promise, and is the biggest seller so far.  I don't have the exact numbers, but they appear to be everywhere. They pretty much left everybody in the dust.

As for me, I would like to see a flying car.  There is no traffic problems up there, helps solve commute traffic jams.

Courtesy of an article dated April 26, 2010 appearing in Marketing Daily

   

Comments

[Erwin Calverley]

Electric vehicles are a timely solution to the dilemma we have today on the growing amount of carbon emissions in the transportation sector. It's good that there are charging stations popping out all over America (source: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203405504576599060894172004.html), but it still seems that there are only a few EV's out on the road. If more people are educated on the benefits of using an electric vehicle, the use of such can spread on a wider scale.