Whether you work in the retail industry or not, many marketers follow reports about US consumer spending and view them as an indicator as to whether or not the economy is turning around. Retail industry terms such as “Black Friday” and “Cyber Monday” are now commonly used to refer to the busiest shopping days of the year, and are synonymous with the deep discounts and free shipping offers designed to incentivize consumers to purchase in the days immediately following Thanksgiving.
Today is Cyber Monday, so what is the consumer spending outlook for the 2009 holiday season? According to initial estimates, the prognosis isn’t great… but it’s not bad either. ShopperTrak, which measures traffic and sales in 500,000 brick and mortar retail locations across the country, estimates that Black Friday in-store sales hit $10.66 billion this year, an increase of 0.5 percent over 2008. The National Retail Federation is forecasting a 7.9% drop in combined offline and online sales versus Black Friday 2008 based on a poll of 4,985 consumers; however, it also reported a traffic increase of 23 million visitors to online retail websites on Black Friday over 2008. According to the LA Times, it appears that consumers are still spending, but they are opting for reasonably priced sale items and not choosing full-priced or luxury items. Fortunately for everyone involved, 87.1% of retailers are holding Cyber Monday sales, according to the NRF.
The most positive projection issued to date comes from comScore, estimating that US consumers spent $595 million online this past Friday, up 11% from 2008. Could it be that online commerce is seeing double-digit growth while brick and mortar stores continue to lose ground? It’s still too early to tell for certain, but it’s clear that consumers are becoming more and more comfortable transacting online.
This shift is important to note for marketers in every industry. As business moves increasingly online, it’s more important than ever to think holistically about your email communication strategy and integrate it with customer touch-points in other channels. Email is the conduit for business online and is a mission-critical component of any online sales or communication strategy. If you’re still sending “email blasts” each time you need to promote a specific item, it’s time to re-evaluate your approach. Invest in the technology, tools, and resources that you need to build a comprehensive customer communications program leveraging all of the digital marketing channels that make sense for your business – because its future is online.
COMMENTARY: comScore has forecasted flat to slightly negative online sales for 2008, so I don't know where the 11% comes from. As far as I know those making under $50K will be down, those making $100K or more will increase their purchases, and this may be part of the confusion. Just for the record.
I hate to say bah humbug, but Christmas has become just to commercialized. The U.S. has become a "Christmas Economy", that is far too dependent on Christmas sales. Who ever heard of such a thing? When you have to depend at the end of the year to gauge whether retail sales were good for the year.
The U.S. is also addicted to plastic or credit cards. We have far too much credit card debt, and one of the biggest reasons the banks are having trouble making any money, besides writing off sub-prime and consumer loans, are write-offs from credit cards. The last time I looked consumer credit in the U.S. was well in excess of $1 trillion and the over 90 was in double digits. It is really quite a pathetic indictment of what our economy has become.
I hate shopping and Christmas is one of the most stressful periods of the year for me. All of my shopping will be online, where I do not have to interact with irritating salespeople and white in line for what seems an eternity.
Courtesy of an article dated November 30, 2009 appearing in Strongmail
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