RBC Capital Markets expects tablet market to reach 185 million units in calendar 2014, up 83 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 17 million in calendar 2010. RBC Capital forecasts global tablet revenue to increase from $11 billion in calendar 2010 to nearly $70 billion in calendar 2014.
"We expect Tablets to increase from 3 percent of total computing shipments in calendar 2010 to 12 percent in calendar 2014; we forecast tablets and smartphones to increase from 42 percent of total computing shipments in calendar 2010 to 64 percent in calendar 2014," said Mike Abramsky, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets.
"Ignited by Apple Inc.'s iPad, tablets to us represent a distinct new mobile computing category, significantly expanding the computing market. Further, with one billion mobile devices (tablets, smartphones, other) expected to be shipped by calendar 2014, the mobile Operating System (OS) is catapulting to prominence. All tablets, however, aren’t created equal; too many contenders are setting up for a pending shakeout," said Abramsky.
Abramsky expects global tablets users to increase from 20 million in calendar 2010, or 1.5 percent of global internet users, to over 400 million in calendar 2014, up 112 percent CAGR, equating to 19 percent of global internet users.
Abramsky's global tablets users forecast is based on: the larger addressable market for the tablet computing experience, transcending geography, language, demographics; Tablet versus PC affordability (less than $300); the secular shift to mobile computing (The Next Wave, with 3G/4G estimated 80 percent of tablets by calendar 2014); the rise of the 'Touch n Sync' computing culture started by Apple; Tablets as a mobile thin client for cloud computing; and Distribution advantages (retail/online + carrier channels greater than retail/online distribution).
Abramsky said the rapid growth in tablet shipments is driven by the increased affordability of tablets (versus PCs), consumers’ re-allocation of spending to tablets from discrete consumer electronics (e.g. GPS devices, MP3 players, etc.), increasing mobility of consumer/business computing , and some replacement of traditional PCs with tablets (nominal near term, larger longer term). Abramsky said his forecast assumes a three-year replacement cycle.
Out of the 17 million tablets shipped in calendar 2010, Abramsky estimates consumers purchased over 95 percent (16 million). Abramsky defines consumer tablet shipments as those tablets that are purchased by users for their own personal use and are not reimbursed by their enterprise.
Abramsky forecasts the consumer tablet opportunity to expand to 113 million units in calendar 2014 (61 percent of tablets), up 63 percent CAGR. Abramsky expects consumer tablets to rise from 4 percent of consumer computer shipments in calendar 2010 to 10 percent in calendar 2014, as consumers increasingly utilize tablets for basic computing tasks instead of PCs.
Abramsky said the catalysts for consumer tablet adoption include: Broader global distribution of consumer tablets; Affordable price points; Rising availability of optimized tablet content (e-books, magazines, apps, software); and Widespread support uncompromised tablet browsing experience (HTM5, Adobe Flash).
"Tablets and smartphones shipments are expected to exceed PC shipments by calendar 2012 and reach one billion units by calendar 2014 (64 percent of total computers). The rising prominence of the mobile OS and platforms -- optimized for the mobile and cloud experience -- will intensify the fierce battle for leadership amongst smartphones, PCs, chips, software, developers, and content vendor," said Abramsky.
While Apple’s iPad may continue to set the bar high for experience, Abramsky expects Android to dominate (40 percent share Tablets by 2014), given its broader support from OEMs and carriers and expected budget-priced Android Tablets from Asia. Too many vendors entering the market sets up for a pending shakeout.
After Apple’s expected continued leadership, Abramsky sees RIM, HTC, Motorola, Samsung, and HP as strong contenders. Microsoft may face challenges, as might many less-differentiated ‘NAAT’ (Not Another Android Tablet) vendors, some of whom may exit the market.
COMMENTARY: I have researched technology from mobile phones to music CD's, but the craziest forecasts are the ones for the iPad and tablet computers. When the original iPad came out in April 201o, everybody was making forecasts about how many units would be sold in 2010. Apple CEO Steve Jobs thought he could sell 10 million. When the iPad came out most Forecaster's thought Apple would sell between 7 million and 8 million. I was on the low end of the scale. Nobody got it right. Apple ended up selling 14.8 million iPads in 2010.
Wall Street and technology experts are all trying to forecast how many iPads will be sold in 2011 and beyond. Forecasts for 2011 are all over the ballpark. It's like trying to guess how many jelly beams are in a 5 gallon glass jar.
RBC Capital Markets expects annual iPad shipments to approach 28 million in 2011 and pass 60 million by 2014. That could push the iPad close to a $20 billion business this year.
ZDNet recently compiled a very comprehensive list of forecasted iPad global shipments for 2011. Here's their list:
In a blog post dated December 27, 2010 titled, "Goldman Sachs: Apple Will Sell 37.2 Million iPads By The End of 2012, But An iPad Killer Change All That". IGoldman forecasted that Apple would sell about 17 million iPads in 2011 and 37.2 million in 2012. I thought they would only sell 20 milion by 2012 because of stiff competition. Here's Goldman Sachs' PC and tablet computer forecasts for 2011 and 212 and their quarterly forecasts for the years 2010 through 2012:
According to IHS iSuppli, global shipments of tablets will exceed 19 million in 2010, and will rise dramatically to more than 242 million by 2015. Of those sales, 202 million will be iPads and the legions of Android-based look-alikes being prepared by every consumer electronics maker under the sun. The remaining 40 million will mostly consist of full PCs in a tablet form factor, a segment that accounted for only 2.3 million units in 2010.
Those are you4 tablet computer and iPad unit shipment forecasts between 2011 and 2015.
Courtesy of an article dated March 8, 2011 appearing in the International Business Times
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